If a repeat of the 1973 war were to occur today there is every possibility that the Israeli nation could be defeated. With Arab nations obtaining Typhoons, F-15s, F-16s, M1 Abrams, high speed anti-shipping missiles, MLRS, high tech attack helicopters and other advanced weaponry the technological advantage once enjoyed by the Jewish state has all but disappeared.
This latest sale to Saudi Arabia is troubling. Who are they arming up to fight exactly and how many airplanes do they actually need for their air force? Via FoxNews.
WASHINGTON—The Obama administration plans to sell advanced F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia but won't equip them with long-range weapons systems and other arms whose inclusion was strongly opposed by Israel, diplomats and officials said.
The proposed $30 billion, 10-year arms package, which would be one of the biggest single deals of its kind, has been a source of behind-the-scenes tension during months of negotiations. Israeli officials have repeatedly conveyed their concerns in private that the U.S. risks undermining its military advantage by equipping regional rivals with top-flight technologies.
Haven't the Saudi's just bought a whole raft of Typhoon's from the UK? So what gives with the F-15's? I would assume these would be some variant of the Strike Eagle but without the AESA radars and such we've seen on the recent SG and K models right? Please God tell me the idiots aren't going to try and push Silent Eagles to these butchers....
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect to Fox News, military superiority isn't about the tanks and the planes. It's about the men inside them.
ReplyDeleteRon: The Typhoon's are to replace their ancient F-5's I guess. They're also buying Hinds and Mil-17's from Russia.
ReplyDeleteThe question I've always had is the sales to Egypt. Not just planes but 500+ of M1A1's and M-60's each. Who do they need those to fight?
What does Israel have to fear when their benefactor is the U.S. the Saudi's biggest customer? A war would not benefit the Saudis since their main export is oil. Moreover, the Saudis currently have a militant problem on their border which their substantial force has had trouble with. They have a substantial army of Iran to also deal with.
ReplyDeleteWar between Saudi Arabia and Israel is not impossible, but very very unlikely.
So if Saudi Arabia and Egypt ceased being allied to the U.S., they would possess (collectively) the largest contingent of MBTs and air superiority fighters (counting them as a combined Arab state, e.g.) on the planet. Is that fairly accurate? If it's slightly shy of that status, just add Turkey to the Islamic state, and see if that tips the scales. I think in the event of an Israeli-Iranian conflict, the Europeans would have a lot of violence domestically to deal with, so their projection might not be what we would expect it to be (not to mention that Russia and the middle east could turn off their energy spigots...). Jon has a good point as to training, tactics, intelligence, and basic competence. Perhaps more importantly, there's the logistics challenge. I'd like to see Egypt try a blitzkrieg and figure out how far they get on a tank of gas. Israel isn't that big, though, so maybe that's a nonfactor.
ReplyDeleteMy alarmism is also tempered by the 2015 delivery date on these Eagles. I would figure that s*** will have already hit the fan upon Iran's production of nuclear weapon #1.
I am effing stupid... Numbers I was working off of were pathetically off.
ReplyDeleteMulligan?
I really don't think that there is much risk of Israel and Saudi Arabia going to war anytime soon. Instead, these sales to SA are significant because the Saudis have been conducting airstrikes in Yemen against Al Qaeda, and of course the Saudis are the main regional rival to the Iranians. Just about the only thing that people in the middle east seem to be able to agree on is a hatred of the US, so providing our strongest regional ally with the means to provide strategic security without us having to do it ourselves seems like a good thing. Not to mention we get some of that money back from the Saudis.
ReplyDeleteThe Arab states themselves are divided enough to pose a unified threat, and they themselves are quite aware of that fact.
ReplyDeleteNevermind the fact that Turks are Turks first, Muslims second, plus they are part of NATO.
But in the unlikely event all would unite and strike at Israel 1973-style, Israel would pre-empt 1945-style; with nukes.
So no matter how many M-1s and F-15s the Arab world can field, the Israeli first (counter) strike doctrine is quite an effective answer.
Besides, Egypt (still) worries about Libya, and the Saudis are terrified of Iran combined with a Shia Iraq.
Cheers.
nice discussion ,gentlemans!
ReplyDeleteI once read a commentator (I think it was Austin Bay, but I could be wrong) describing an infantry drill exercise in Saudi Arabia. The men were outside, under a parching sun. Their sergeants and officers were inside an air-condtioned room, barking orders to them through a PA system.
ReplyDeleteOh, and most of them are illiterate. And most of the few educated ones are buffoons like that pompous Prince Sultan from GW I.
In strict military terms, Israel doesn't have much to fear from the Saudis. The Kingdom is a castle of cards that wouldn't pick such a fight with Tel Aviv.
Anyway, our tanks are better.
ReplyDeleteIn today's geopolitical situation, this is rather unlikely. Of course, the situation can change rapidly and it will certainly change as the constant pressure for oil will increase in the next years. This is actually quite dangerous, we have examples today of former allies turning into enemies and fighting the US for example with US made weapons.
ReplyDeleteAs for the use of nuclear weapons, i think it would be a disaster because it would mean to nuke their own back and front yard. However, I'm sure that the Israeli have the experience to put up a very tough fight and a contingency plan exists and keeps up with the constant changes in the inventory of potential enemies.
In today's geopolitical situation, this is rather unlikely. Of course, the situation can change rapidly and it will certainly change as the constant pressure for oil will increase in the next years. This is actually quite dangerous, we have examples today of former allies turning into enemies and fighting the US for example with US made weapons.
ReplyDeleteAs for the use of nuclear weapons, i think it would be a disaster because it would mean to nuke their own back and front yard. However, I'm sure that the Israeli have the experience to put up a very tough fight and a contingency plan exists and keeps up with the constant changes in the inventory of potential enemies.