Sometime I wonder if we're not being caught up in a massive shell game. While everyone is focusing on the crisis in Asia between the two Korea's, the really big news that could plunge the world into the 2nd great depression is occurring in Europe. Specifically Ireland and how Germany's people react to another bailout.
Read more here...and here....and here....
I hope you've participated in the "new" fashion trend of being frugal. But if you splurged then be careful. Something appears to be brewing in Europe and few seem to be paying attention.
AND in Middle East.
ReplyDeleteKeywords: SPHERE of influence.
http://articles.latimes.com/print/2010/nov/16/opinion/la-oe-schenker-china-mideast-20101116
ok, you made your point. China's playing chess and we're playing checkers but riddle me this.
ReplyDeleteWasn't the same thing said about Japan? Are they really this powerhouse or are they a creation of our own market orientation? Free trade is a joke...replace it with fair trade and in two years the world will be rebalanced.
The solution is simple but politicians won't do it because of money flowing into their campaign coffers.
I refuse to believe that China can sustain its rise without our people fueling it.
Once the American beast is awakened...and it is---I haven't seen my countrymen this worried in a long time---then you'll see something truly magnificent...add to it a President that is aggressive but sees the world as it is not as they wish it to be (talking about Obama and Bush Jr.) then you'll see the proper application of US power...economically and militarily.
AND within the United States.
ReplyDelete"US power" - what exactly is it today, and 20 years from now?
China's rising is in part fueled by America's overconsumptionism. We spend on borrowed credit, they gloat. Copy that?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/27/opinion/27herbert.html?src=ISMR_AP_LO_MST_FB&pagewanted=print
Keyword: Japanification
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/world/asia/30japan.html?sq=Japanification&st=cse&scp=1&pagewanted=print
Talk of shell games invokes worldwide conspiracy, surely you dont believe in such things Sol? Then again things are looking a bit bleak aren't they...To be fair the Germans have every right to grumble about the Eurozone crisis, the rest of the continent seems to have decided to ride the recession on their backs and they havent put a foot wrong to deserve it. As for talk of a general collapse, wont happen, the Germans at least will put down as much money as necessary to make sure it doesnt, otherwise all their own hard work is undone too. What you will see however is a massive inquest into banking regulations and our own masters of the universe will most certainly be under scrutiny AGAIN for their meddling in bond trades.
ReplyDeleteOn the subject of China, I think the time when the US could have stopped Chinese influence was about 5 years ago. It would take a herculean effort to reverse the trend now, because don't forget that while they are sinking money into Africa, South Asia and the Middle East they are also wolfing down Treasury bonds and US corporate assets AND they have a fat reserve of money with which to make it rain if they wanted to. At this point they are too dependent on the US to pull any serious BS but all the shenanigans they are upto in the third world are mostly going into remedy that situation. So America can still stop them, BUT it will take a lot of money and serious political will and regulation none of which is gonna happen anytime soon.
China's growing sphere of influence: Indian Ocean, Africa, Middle East & South America. Next stop: North America & Europe, precisely via our growing debt and fiscal instability.
ReplyDeleteBetween mounting debt, brain/skill drain, policy paralysis and cyberspace vulnerability, the possibility of next world war would the less of our concern.
annonymous.
ReplyDeletename one thing that China has invented. you can't. you aren't innovators, you're copiers. you take what is and build it. you tout the J-10 but had the Israeli's build it for you. name one consumer item that had its origin in China. name one weapon system that had its origin in China. you can't because your people can only copy or slightly improve on what is.
that's an indication of a lack of imagination. brain drain? we're fighting to keep people out...including your own citizens.
and finally, despite what our capitalist might want to believe, you're still a communist country and by rights are our natural enemy.
the current wars won't last forever and once they're over we'll turn our full attention to you and yours. enjoy the head start because once you get our attention, your fate will be the same as the Soviet Union.
first we'll destroy and reverse this uber capitalist amongst us and then we'll be after you. rest well now, because soon you'll die tired.
Game Set Match, to Sol!
ReplyDeletethanks Ron.
ReplyDeletei don't believe its a conspiracy but that thing in Europe has me alot more worried than the Korea issue.
confession time, i'm a semi-survivalist/financial scrooge/penny pincher so i'm on the look out for financial collapse.
i might be blowing it out of proportion though...we'll see.
They copy, assimilate and move forward; that's how they close in on the 30-year technological gap in leaps.
ReplyDelete---------------
Humm.... Get real, Sol.
no, you get real...they copy. they STEAL. and that's how they move forward.
ReplyDeleteNOT TO MENTION OUR OWN COMPANIES THAT ARE SELLING DUAL USE TECHNOLOGY.
are you really that stupid?
Assimilate vs steal: that's politics.
ReplyDeleteOutsourcing drains our know-how to the would-be competitor(s), that's for sure.
"STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES" - how fitting.
assimilate vs. steal=politics? no that equals industrial espionage...and our FBI once fought that. now our super capitalist give it away in search of a profit motive.
ReplyDeletewhats fitting is that you've again come over to my blog and lost another argument.
you're an idiot. go somewhere else. you're boring me.
A few things regarding Germany:
ReplyDelete1.) Germans are a pessimistic people. Even historians joke that after the failed revolution in 1848 all optimistic Germans left for the United States.
2.) The current level of pessimism and complaining is about the same when our capital Berlin (also one of our 16 states) requested to be bailed out a few years ago.
3.) Financial transfers are unpopular in general. It was when Bavaria received a lot of money from the richer states and has now developed into one of the wealthiest states with a large industrial and service sector. It was/is after reunifications.
4.) These bailouts are actually loans, which means we will only pay if Ireland, Greece, ... fail, in which case we will probably lose even more money (these countries are important for the German export industry as reliable markets and German banks also loaned them a lot of money).
5.) There are rumours that Merkel is acting that way to keep the exchange rates low and fuel the German export economy.
6.) In the recent years the German mainstream media has moved from reporting news to either doom and gloom apocalyptic scenarios or non-news (e.g. the death of the goalie of our national football team received more attention than the death of sodliers in Afghanistan).
7.) European integration in some political areas like finance has reached a point were national politicians with more power than EU politicians trying to push national agendas on an EU level (much like every governor in the US telling your President what he should do and not do at the same time or even deciding certain policies over his head)
I also want to add that there's currently a lot of competition between the big currencies.
good points Franks but it appears that the rest of Europe is suckling off of Germany's tit. as vulgar as that might seem, i do recall an actual political cartoon showing the same thing.
ReplyDeleteresentment of the status quo by the German people should be expected.
Well, as I said financial transfers are unpopular. So it really depends on how much and how long Germany has to pay, and this is only if Ireland, Greece, ... fail. Also, what some people forget - even here in Germany - that German banks are some of the biggest creditors in these states. We loan them the money, to buy our stuff.
ReplyDelete'we loan them money to buy our stuff'
ReplyDeletewow. thats kinda disturbing. does that mean that Germany has been to Europe, what China is to the US. our creditor and also dependent on our spending?
if so then this is really a good thing. that model is unsustainable.
Well, it's not exactly the same as Europe shares a common market, there's economic and limited fiscal integration in the EU and so on. Companies operate Europe-wide (German supermarkets in Spain, Italian carmakers in Germany, crossborder regions). So there's an economic union, a monetary union, but a fiscal and financial union is only in the early beginning (and I don't really know how far we go and how it will look like). Add to that an awkward mix of federal and intergovernmental structures and 28+ different players. That's about my picture of today's EU.
ReplyDeleteAnother aspect is that Germany (or rather employer's representatives and the unions) tried to increase its competitiveness through - relative - low wages. This didn't exactly benefit our neighbors, who would usually export their goods to us, because internal demand isn't that great or you'd have to buy a cheaper product from let's say China.
As a pragmatic Eurofederalist, I want that we continue with the "ever closer union" and get the proper structures in place. Even if it means that some countries will opt-out. If we don't do that it will only get worse and if we bring back national currencies it will only get worse than worse, especially for us Germans, as the D-Mark rates will rise and our export-driven economy will be truely fucked if you pardon my French.
sorry but i truly believe that a one Europe vision is a fantasy. you'll eventually have to move toward a single language...single currency....single military and most important of all a single government. i just see the same issues and struggles that perplexed the Soviet Union.
ReplyDeletesomeone - somewhere - will not only opt out but will revolt against it.
I wouldn't compare the European Union with the Soviet Union. I don't think that they lacked a strong executive. A lot of the current problems stem from the twisted structure, e.g. national politicians (head of state or head of government) have executive AND legislative powers on a European level or that the European Parliament has significantly less power than the European Council (national executives).
ReplyDeleteSingle language: not so much of a problem, most people over here have English as a second language and quite often another one (in Germany usually French).
Single currency: The countries most likely to join a federal Europe are also the countries who have adopted the Euro.
Single military: How long did it take the United States to reach today's level of military integration? There are a lot of proposals and fun fact: Germans would rather have a European Army than a transfer union.
I don't think anybody here in Europe would revolt against a federal Europe as this couldn't be pushed through parliament like another treaty. This would require plebiscites (the German Constitutional Court ruled that way) and those countries who choose not to join this federation would still be part of the existing agreements like the Common Market.
wrt china:
ReplyDeleteChina began its rise as a copy-cat, but with more manufacturing occurring there and less in the US, they are developing expertise as the US loses it. Combining the drop in American graduate student enrollment (and lack of retention of foreign students in the US) with soaring rates of engineering graduates in China, China's research capacity will soon exceed that of the US. Coupling basic science and manufacturing know-how, it is clear to see the threat that China poses to US economic and therefore military dominance.
A link on engineer graduate rates:
http://www.dukenews.duke.edu/2007/03/engineer.html
That link doesn't support your argument at all brinic:
ReplyDelete"The authors say producing more undergraduate engineers alone will not enable the United States to protect its engineering jobs from the kind of outsourcing that has occurred in other fields. It is not deficiencies in American workers or the availability of skills in other countries that are driving companies abroad."
It simply says they are making more graduate level engineers and that our outsourcing issue has many fathers.
It does not say "they are killing us because they make more engineers" as you seem to imply.
Remember, China is a command economy. They make whatever widget some highly placed communist party member can get made (mainly what will inflate his wallet and/or ego). That widget can be a cheap toy painted with lead paint, or an engineering student. Are the engineers any good? Does China need them? Are they the right kind? Who knows. Certainly not the Politburo. Only the market can determine that. That is the fatal flaw in all oligarchies such as China's (show me a successful one).
China oppresses its people, keeping the vast majority of them poor and uneducated, so that their dinky wages seem like a kings ransom. That is what makes manufacturers go there. Unlike other places where "our" manufacturing ran to (Japan, Korea), China will never let its people become wealthy and independent. Oppression will lead to stagnation.
That being said we cannot continue to spend ourselves into Oblivion. That includes all of the "West". The welfare state has proven itself unsustainable.
and that Sgt C. is why you're my hero! well said! and I couldn't agree more.
ReplyDeleteSgt_C: Thanks for reading and commenting, but I think you might have misunderstood my point, which is that the economic threat posed by China is real, and that the "copy-cat" phase of their economic development has passed. Without engineering and scientific expertise, the only way to compete on the global stage is to make cheap, simple products which is exactly what they did in the 90s. By attracting high-tech manufacturing in the early 2000s, they were able to acquire experience making those types of goods (which American industry gave away). This was the outsourcing phase and where the Chinese used their new-found manufacturing capacity to copy complicated goods and electronics, often in a poor way.
ReplyDeleteNow that the Chinese educational investments are beginning to pay off, i.e. they are producing quality graduates in large numbers, they can develop and produce products locally for the export economy instead of relying on foreign designs or expertise. The link supports the investment of the Chinese in education, and the capacity of their educational system. As far as the quality of the engineers and scientists, looking through scientific publications, the numbers of articles produced by Chinese researchers has grown rapidly. A few years ago, many of these publications were coming from Chinese graduate students/academics working at American universities. Now, the Chinese are attracting American students to their universities.
As for China being a simple command economy, it is much more complicated than that. There are state controlled industries, but there is also a significant amount of capitalist initiative allowed. The Chinese have a strong history of capitalism on the small scale. At the large scale, even in our economy, government intervention plays a large role (see the energy, auto or banking sectors). The relaxation of socialist controls has allowed many Chinese to become wealthy and a flourishing middle-class to develop. Compared to the utter poverty following the Cultural Revolution, the people are willing to make certain sacrifices as long as they remain prosperous.
All this being said, I am not a sino-phile and the callous disregard of their government for human life is one of the great evils today. I do not think the sun has set on America, but there is a lot of work to do, and a lot of sacrifice that we will all need to make to reforge our economy.
Sgt_C: Thanks for reading and commenting, but I think you might have misunderstood my point, which is that the economic threat posed by China is real, and that the "copy-cat" phase of their economic development has passed. Without engineering and scientific expertise, the only way to compete on the global stage is to make cheap, simple products which is exactly what they did in the 90s. By attracting high-tech manufacturing in the early 2000s, they were able to acquire experience making those types of goods (which American industry gave away). This was the outsourcing phase and where the Chinese used their new-found manufacturing capacity to copy complicated goods and electronics, often in a poor way.
ReplyDeleteNow that the Chinese educational investments are beginning to pay off, i.e. they are producing quality graduates in large numbers, they can develop and produce products locally for the export economy instead of relying on foreign designs or expertise. The link supports the investment of the Chinese in education, and the capacity of their educational system. As far as the quality of the engineers and scientists, looking through scientific publications, the numbers of articles produced by Chinese researchers has grown rapidly. A few years ago, many of these publications were coming from Chinese graduate students/academics working at American universities. Now, the Chinese are attracting American students to their universities.
As for China being a simple command economy, it is much more complicated than that. There are state controlled industries, but there is also a significant amount of capitalist initiative allowed. The Chinese have a strong history of capitalism on the small scale. At the large scale, even in our economy, government intervention plays a large role (see the energy, auto or banking sectors). The relaxation of socialist controls has allowed many Chinese to become wealthy and a flourishing middle-class to develop. Compared to the utter poverty following the Cultural Revolution, the people are willing to make certain sacrifices as long as they remain prosperous.
ReplyDeleteAll this being said, I am not a sino-phile and the callous disregard of their government for human life is one of the great evils today. I do not think the sun has set on America, but there is a lot of work to do, and a lot of sacrifice that we will all need to make in order to reforge our economy.
This post should have been first:
ReplyDeleteSgt_C: Thanks for reading and commenting, but I think you might have misunderstood my point, which is that the economic threat posed by China is real, and that the "copy-cat" phase of their economic development has passed. Without engineering and scientific expertise, the only way to compete on the global stage is to make cheap, simple products which is exactly what they did in the 90s. By attracting high-tech manufacturing in the early 2000s, they were able to acquire experience making those types of goods (which American industry gave away). This was the outsourcing phase and where the Chinese used their new-found manufacturing capacity to copy complicated goods and electronics, often in a poor way.
Now that the Chinese educational investments are beginning to pay off, i.e. they are producing quality graduates in large numbers, they can develop and produce products locally for the export economy instead of relying on foreign designs or expertise. The link supports the investment of the Chinese in education, and the capacity of their educational system. As far as the quality of the engineers and scientists, looking through scientific publications, the numbers of articles produced by Chinese researchers has grown rapidly. A few years ago, many of these publications were coming from Chinese graduate students/academics working at American universities. Now, the Chinese are attracting American students to their universities.
Not sure why this post didn't go through. It was supposed to be first:
ReplyDeleteSgt_C: Thanks for reading and commenting, but I think you might have misunderstood my point, which is that the economic threat posed by China is real, and that the "copy-cat" phase of their economic development has passed. Without engineering and scientific expertise, the only way to compete on the global stage is to make cheap, simple products which is exactly what they did in the 90s. By attracting high-tech manufacturing in the early 2000s, they were able to acquire experience making those types of goods (which American industry gave away). This was the outsourcing phase and where the Chinese used their newfound manufacturing capacity to copy complicated goods and electronics, often in a poor way.
Now that the Chinese educational investments are beginning to pay off, i.e. they are producing quality graduates in large numbers, they can develop and produce products locally for the export economy instead of relying on foreign designs or expertise. The link supports the investment of the Chinese in education, and the capacity of their educational system. As far as the quality of the engineers and scientists, looking through scientific publications, the numbers of articles produced by Chinese researchers has grown rapidly. A few years ago, many of these publications were coming from chinese graduate students/academics working at American universities. Now, the Chinese are attracting American students to their universities.
"Khrushchev Could Not Bury U.S., China Might"
ReplyDeleteA new term for you: Economic Warfare
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/12/13/khrushchev-could-not-bury-u-s-china-just-might/
we've been talking economic warfare up and down this thread...geez...pay attention.
ReplyDelete