Have you heard this rumor? Australian Navy to get RN Bay Class LSD's!

Read the whole thing here at Australian Defence Magazine.  The operative paragraph...

“One of the Bays becoming available suits us perfectly: it saves us a fair bit of cash (budget is $150-200 million, and I’d imagine we’ll get one of the Bays for ~$70-100 million, bear in mind the dollar is strong at the moment too), and it’s available right now.
“Recall that at the moment the LPAs [Landing Platform, Amphibious] are experiencing some pretty major problems related to the age of the vessels, so getting the JP2048 P4C vessel into service by the end of next year would really get us out of a bind, since it’d allow the RAN to either repair only one of the LPAs or run the LSD(A) in parallel to the LPA but reduce the operational burden on the LPAs (the Bay class run with a crew of about 60 so the RAN should be able to man one without too much difficulty).”

This would be awesome.  In a few short years the Australian Navy can transition from a deterrent force with limited power projection capabilities to a full spectrum power house in the Pacific.  With the addition of the Bay Class from the UK, its Canberra Class LHD now being built the RAN will be extremely formidable.

Question.

If Argentina decided to annex the Falkland Islands in late 2012 (after all the cuts have been made and all the gear sold) could the British retake them as they did in the 80's?

Let me add this before you answer yes too quickly...take into account a US administration that doesn't view our 'special relationship' with as much reverence as some might hope...a stretched US military and the other EU nations being involved in Afghanistan or suffering from the economic downturn.

Its reasonable to assume that the UK would have to go this alone...do you really think they could? 

I wonder.

No Harriers.

Typhoons operating at the very limits of their range with limited endurance over the contested areas. 

A much diminished amphibious lift capability.

No Nimrods to do anti-sub patrols.

The medium term Royal Navy is full of risk...my vote on this subject.  Not only no, but hell no. 

The only viable option would be to have their Parachute Battalion along with SAS and SBS retake the landing strip and hope that they could hold it until the Royal Marines could land.  Even in the 80's it was an iffy proposition and the line up was much much stronger.  If this scenario ever plays out then the Brits are screwed.