Read the whole thing here at Australian Defence Magazine. The operative paragraph...
“One of the Bays becoming available suits us perfectly: it saves us a fair bit of cash (budget is $150-200 million, and I’d imagine we’ll get one of the Bays for ~$70-100 million, bear in mind the dollar is strong at the moment too), and it’s available right now.This would be awesome. In a few short years the Australian Navy can transition from a deterrent force with limited power projection capabilities to a full spectrum power house in the Pacific. With the addition of the Bay Class from the UK, its Canberra Class LHD now being built the RAN will be extremely formidable.
“Recall that at the moment the LPAs [Landing Platform, Amphibious] are experiencing some pretty major problems related to the age of the vessels, so getting the JP2048 P4C vessel into service by the end of next year would really get us out of a bind, since it’d allow the RAN to either repair only one of the LPAs or run the LSD(A) in parallel to the LPA but reduce the operational burden on the LPAs (the Bay class run with a crew of about 60 so the RAN should be able to man one without too much difficulty).”
Question.
If Argentina decided to annex the Falkland Islands in late 2012 (after all the cuts have been made and all the gear sold) could the British retake them as they did in the 80's?
Let me add this before you answer yes too quickly...take into account a US administration that doesn't view our 'special relationship' with as much reverence as some might hope...a stretched US military and the other EU nations being involved in Afghanistan or suffering from the economic downturn.
Its reasonable to assume that the UK would have to go this alone...do you really think they could?
I wonder.
No Harriers.
Typhoons operating at the very limits of their range with limited endurance over the contested areas.
A much diminished amphibious lift capability.
No Nimrods to do anti-sub patrols.
The medium term Royal Navy is full of risk...my vote on this subject. Not only no, but hell no.
The only viable option would be to have their Parachute Battalion along with SAS and SBS retake the landing strip and hope that they could hold it until the Royal Marines could land. Even in the 80's it was an iffy proposition and the line up was much much stronger. If this scenario ever plays out then the Brits are screwed.
Hi Sol,
ReplyDeleteThe Falklands issue is often played out over here, especially when discussing force reductions, but in all this we tend to forget the following issues
1. Argentina is a relatively stable democracy and not an embattled junta using the Falklands as a nationalistic diversion from trouble at home
2. The Argentine armed forces have been humbled before and would be in no mood to do it again
3. Since 1982 the Argentine armed forces have stayed still or gone back. Although the UK may have retracted in size, capability wise, its a whole different proposition
4. To mount and sustain any kind of invasion they would need capabilities they just do not possess any more
5. In times of rising tension or a build up we could rapidly reinforce through Mount Pleasant Airport and I can't see them being able to build without us knowing, I would imagine its an area we pay special attention to!
6. If they did manage to launch an assault then they would have to get past an air capability that includes a flight of 4 Typhoon, VC10 tanker and Hercules. Not forgetting a number of Rapier FSC AA missile systems, the Falkland Islands Defence Force and the roulement Infantry Company that will frankly include about 500 times more combat experience than the entire Argentine forces. There is also the Atlantic Patrol South and Falkland Islands patrol ship.
7. Since 1982 UK forces have been doing nothing but planning for every possible attack eventuality, trust me, its taken very seriously.
8. There is always the possibility of an SSN in the area against which the Argentine forces have no effective counter and could deny all seaborne movement whilst being able to launch Tomahawk missiles against land targets
The point I am trying to make is that the desired state is to deter military action and defend effectively if it happens
Mounting some glorious liberation is the last option
The SSN is deterrent enough, as the Argies all too well remember the sinking of the Belgrano, and any amphibious force, be it initial assault or second wave reinforcements, would meet a similar fate.
ReplyDeleteWith the potential of sizeable oil and gas deposits around "disputed" Falkland EEZs, there will be the usual tension and diplomatic hoopla between Argentina and the UK at a regular basis, but I agree that it will be diplomatic hot-air most of the time.
(I'm more concerned about Venezuela than Argentina at the moment, what with Chavez pushing for a "Prez 4 Life" decree and his economy taking a nose-dive).
agree Marcase, the conditions seem very similar to 1982. Do you have your sun bloc ready for a trip to the Antilles!
ReplyDeleteAh damn, I had so many good arguments lined up for this and think has gone in and got them all already.
ReplyDeleteI think we focus too much on the Falklands. I think it was a war needing rapid resonse using ad hoc platforms.
ReplyDeleteThe Bay class are needed not only by Australia, but also by Canada and other countries to which I would include the US. The USN simply cannot afford to build mulit-Billion dollar tiffany amphibs IMHO.
IF this deal with the Aussies does not go through, the USN should bareboat charter the excess Bay LSD(A) and assign it to MSC.
Why would the USN want to buy the Bay and then turn it over to the MSC? To serve what purpose? We already have what we need and are getting more of them.
ReplyDeleteSame can be said of Canada...To be quite honest, it only makes sense for Australia in the sense that it would be in addition to upgrades that are already in the works and would solve the issue of the elderly LST's that they have in service.
Issues with Venezuela apply to the Falklands situation but only double it. They have SU-30's in strength and supposedly S-300's. If they are willing to get into some type of attrition campaign then the islands would be in their possession before help could arrive
It seems strange that countries now seem very interested in the Bay class but we never tried to make export sales as they were built. Seems like a waste.
ReplyDeleteAnd Sol, Chavez may talk big, but if they got involved in the Falklands they'd take it from a small regional territorial dispute to a much larger regional conflict with global implications.
its all about the ship building industry.
ReplyDeleteevery country wants to protect its base. even the EU hasn't been able to consolidate that industry like they did with aviation...and to be honest i think that consolidation stifles innovation.
as far as Chavez getting involved and making it a regional conflict...can you really rule that out with him? what a perfect opportunity to split the US away from its primary ally or to over extend US forces if we stick with you!
besides with the price of oil rising again, that big discovery off the coast of the Falklands could be in play again.
You're right Chavez is unpredictable, and a nice nationalistic war would be right up his alley, but it'd be quite a step up even for him.
ReplyDeleteI doubt we'd have anyone actually come to our aid in another Falklands scenario unless Chavez tried it on, then the US would be more inclined to help (that and the fact that the UK could become one of the US's only stable foreign oil imports if we do hold the Falklands). France might also get a little worried by the regional situation since it still holds colonies in the area (one of which is of importance to Europe for it's spaceport.)
So it could get interesting.
(Oh and I agree on the consolidation stifling innovation point, it's a vicious cycle because without innovation you begin to go elsewhere for your hardware and then the industry dies unless its artificially supported - see the British defence industry now compared to 50 years ago :(. )
Just to clarify a bit, my nervousness about Hugo Chavez (as in, the president of Venezuela) is him making a move on the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba (which are located near his shores) just to divert his peoples attention away from his megalomaniac, err, "Bolivarian" national revolution.
ReplyDeleteThe Falkland Islands are way, way beyond Venezuelas reach and interest (Chavez also has some local axes to grind - read: Colombia).
In relation to these ships, RAN has indeed sent a team to the UK to "kick the tyres" and check out how much the ship may cost to buy and what it may cost to operate. How much life it has in it and what work it may or may not need to fit in with our existing systems, platforms etc.
ReplyDeleteIt will be a Government decision, because though Australia has been planning for some years to acquire a ship exactly like the Bay Class (it's mooted "Sea-Lift" ship) it wasn't planned to begin until 2018, so the funding and approvals will all have to be brought forward quite quickly.
Sol, in relation to the Falklands, the difference between now and back then, is the fact that the British Armed forces already have a substantial force on the island with Typhoon's and air defence systems, a reinforced rifle company, a naval frigate, an armed patrol vessel and most likely a sub prowling around every now and then. None of that was in place last time and because of this, it will not be the RAF elements operating at the extremities of their combat radiuses but the Argies.
Their air power hasn't significantly improved since 1981 and their ability to conduct long ranged combat operations hasn't either. 4x Typhoon T2's, supported by ground based radar and air defence systems alone, will be a hard nut for the Argies to crack. If a full squadron of Typhoons in addition to these were deployed, along with a GR4 Tornado squadron to reinforce the island, along with additional land and naval elements, the Argies would have to be suicidal to even try.
The British routinely practice reinforcing the islands in a big hurry if they need to. The Argies, unfortunately have nothing to reinforce themselves with, as brave as their pilots may be, going up against a supported Typhoon force in a Mirage III/Dagger at the extremity of the Argies radius WOULD be suicidal...