It may not be a COIN/combat deployment by then, but there will be a US presence - the location of the country is just too strategic to abandon it completely.
And units based there (even small advisory teams) will always come under attack by either disgruntled locals or more likely the lovely Iranians and Pakistanis, that overt or covert combat ops will be the rule rather than the exception.
i've heard the saying before but somehow never put it into the context of us being in Afghanistan that long....one thing is certain...budgets and politics will never allow for a money drain and a resource drain to continue till then.l
my fear is that you're right. we'll have small advisory team in country with UAVs providing oversight...scary for the guys on the ground but hopefully tech will evolve so that 10 will equal 100.
Realistically I think Nato will still be deployed in 2025. I think by then you'd optimistically hope to see a shift from COIN to C-T ops, with the ANA able to maintain control over the populated areas, leaving ISAF spec ops to hunt AQ in the AfPak borders. Essentially a shift in Afghan to what is currently ongoing in Pakistan and Yemen.
Even if there is a withdrawal, you're still going to see Nato footing the bill for the Afghan defence budget to the tune of at least $10bn p.a. more or less indefinately. Given the US currently spends $9bn a month on Afgan I'd say that would be cheap at the price.
People often talk about failing to learn the lessons of the past. I'd argue that Isaf really needs to learn the lessons of Russian involvement in Afghan. Whilst obviously rubbleisation is hardly appropriate for western countries, the Russian strategic model of withdrawal is one we should be seeking to use and I'd argue was highly succesful.
I'm afraid so, Sol.
ReplyDeleteIt may not be a COIN/combat deployment by then, but there will be a US presence - the location of the country is just too strategic to abandon it completely.
And units based there (even small advisory teams) will always come under attack by either disgruntled locals or more likely the lovely Iranians and Pakistanis, that overt or covert combat ops will be the rule rather than the exception.
i've heard the saying before but somehow never put it into the context of us being in Afghanistan that long....one thing is certain...budgets and politics will never allow for a money drain and a resource drain to continue till then.l
ReplyDeletemy fear is that you're right. we'll have small advisory team in country with UAVs providing oversight...scary for the guys on the ground but hopefully tech will evolve so that 10 will equal 100.
Nice concept art.
ReplyDeleteRealistically I think Nato will still be deployed in 2025. I think by then you'd optimistically hope to see a shift from COIN to C-T ops, with the ANA able to maintain control over the populated areas, leaving ISAF spec ops to hunt AQ in the AfPak borders. Essentially a shift in Afghan to what is currently ongoing in Pakistan and Yemen.
Even if there is a withdrawal, you're still going to see Nato footing the bill for the Afghan defence budget to the tune of at least $10bn p.a. more or less indefinately. Given the US currently spends $9bn a month on Afgan I'd say that would be cheap at the price.
People often talk about failing to learn the lessons of the past. I'd argue that Isaf really needs to learn the lessons of Russian involvement in Afghan. Whilst obviously rubbleisation is hardly appropriate for western countries, the Russian strategic model of withdrawal is one we should be seeking to use and I'd argue was highly succesful.