Information Dissemination has posted an interesting article with the dangling fruit of the POSSIBILITY (remote in his opinion) of there being an NEO in Egypt.
It is worth remembering there are some 90,000 Americans in Egypt. Nothing has been decided, but preparations are being made just in case.Can you imagine?The U.S. Marines have a pair of warships -- the USS Kearsarge and the USS Ponce -- just hanging around the southern end of the Red Sea waiting to see if they're needed to rescue U.S. diplomats and citizens from Cairo. They're half of the Marines' 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, a mini-armada that recently dispatched 1,400 of its 2,000 Marines into Afghanistan. But they've got a "fair number" of helicopters, and Marines, still aboard.Something to keep an eye on.
Even if only half those people request to be moved then you're looking at a "mission impossible"...
Think about it.
You'd have to fully commit the remainder of the 26th MEU.
You'd probably have to fly in the 82nd Airborne Division Ready Brigade.
An entire wing from the Air Forces Air Mobility Command would have to be deployed....
All while a friendly nation other than Israel was lined up to take in this massive infuse of humanity.
The whole idea gives me shivers. And we haven't even begun to think about terrorist mixing with refugees blowing up airplanes or even gaining body counts in the crowds. Not even considered the population turning violent. Not even thought about the Egyptian military attempting to stop the effort.
Is it time for the US Military to rethink its understanding with Americans in foreign countries? Is it time for it to be understood that if trouble erupts they should be PREPARED---and be ready to protect themselves---cause as much as we'd like to, help might not be coming?
I think so. If you can change my mind, I'm all ears.
The Egyptian military is still a force to be reckoned with, meaning that they could create a safe corridor to the airport(s) should the need arise. Thankfully there's no real threat to foreigners/tourists right now.
ReplyDeleteAbout the MEU(-) role, they'd just initially reinforce the local army/police units (fat chance imho) and if it really got ugly, the MEU would secure strategic points so a safe route could be established away from the revolt, which is still localized around major city centers, and Egypt is kinda big.
I doubt that any NEO would balloon to division/MEF level.
My main concern right now is that a lot of Egyptian police/military are being pulled away from the Gaza border. I expect a surge in (weapon) smuggling between Egypt and Hamas - that's going to harm the Israelis, which will of course result in an escalation on that front.
Funny thing, found out that all internet searches regarding Tunesia, Jordan and Egypt are banned from Chinese servers as well.
That's one FAST uprising we're seeing here, with real global repercussions.
As mentioned by xbradtc.wordpress.com you already happen to have a couple battalions, there [one infantry, NG; one support]. Plus assorted allies [couple bats infantry, non-EU *], two bases and an airport.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mfo.org/contingents-United%20States.php
Mission seems kinda relaxed --meaning, there's a *location map*--, but might be useful if required.
Take care. Ferran.
[*] Meaning, no so slow to act, maybe?
The Egyptian military would likely work with us from what I have read. We train their leadership and pay their bills.
ReplyDeleteNow imagine trying it without those ships.
ReplyDeleteOk, if we do a NEO we will only put in a few very small security forces at a couple of airports - Cairo, Alex, Luxor - and we would contract a bunch of commerical airliners (or even cruise ships) to haul out all the US (and EU, Japanese, etc) tourists. We'd do that in cooperation and coordination with (especially)the EU. If we have to RESCUE those tourists as opposed to a NEO then it is a whole different ball game. Not at that point yet. Keep in mind that we already have quite a few US military folks there as part of the training/advisor mission... Such a NEO is most definitely NOT "mission impossible" - just a trifle difficult, expensive and a big operation - and, oh by the way, it is already underway.
ReplyDeletePart of the MEU mission during an NEO involves liaison with local government and NGOs; Situation Awareness, Logistics coordination, and Command Control capabilities.
ReplyDeleteIn other words lay the ground work for follow on logistical needs.