Ferran! Thanks. This is by far the best analysis of the dangers that the current troubles in Egypt present to the Israeli people.
Check out this analysis and follow the link to read the whole thing. via STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
The events in Egypt have sent shock waves through Israel. The 1978 Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel have been the bedrock of Israeli national security. In three of the four wars Israel fought before the accords, a catastrophic outcome for Israel was conceivable. In 1948, 1967 and 1973, credible scenarios existed in which the Israelis were defeated and the state of Israel ceased to exist. In 1973, it appeared for several days that one of those scenarios was unfolding.
The survival of Israel was no longer at stake after 1978. In the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the various Palestinian intifadas and the wars with Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in Gaza in 2008, Israeli interests were involved, but not survival. There is a huge difference between the two. Israel had achieved a geopolitical ideal after 1978 in which it had divided and effectively made peace with two of the four Arab states that bordered it, and neutralized one of those states. The treaty with Egypt removed the threat to the Negev and the southern coastal approaches to Tel Aviv.
The agreement with Jordan in 1994, which formalized a long-standing relationship, secured the longest and most vulnerable border along the Jordan River. The situation in Lebanon was such that whatever threat emerged from there was limited. Only Syria remained hostile but, by itself, it could not threaten Israel. Damascus was far more focused on Lebanon anyway. As for the Palestinians, they posed a problem for Israel, but without the foreign military forces along the frontiers, the Palestinians could trouble but not destroy Israel. Israel’s existence was not at stake, nor was it an issue for 33 years.
My fear with Egypt is that when (not *if*) Mubarak leaves, the next government can't live up to expectations due to the mess Egyptian politics/bureaucracy is in. That will relight the revolution in the streets and then the radicals may come to power.
ReplyDeleteSimilar trends occured when the former Soviet sattelite states in Eastern Europe got independence. But those budding East European countries could depend on - and even welcomed - outside mediation and support to grow to full free democracies. They're not there yet, but on their way rapidly.
No such (working and proven) mechanism is available to Egypt.
In other words, the worst-case scenario for Israel would be...a potential two-front war with an intifada in the middle. To avoid that, the ideological pressure on Egypt must be eased, and that means a settlement with the Palestinians on less-than-optimal terms.
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Good luck with that. Israel is on a collision course with demographics.