via
France24 (please read the entire article..)
Dismal approval ratings and a series of much-publicised French gaffes in
response to the anti-regime movement in Tunisia are thought to be
likely factors providing motivation for Sarkozy to appear authoritative
and presidential on the international stage. French elections
will take place in May 2012, and Sarkozy is thought to be eager to
boost his public standing before launching a re-election campaign.
A president seeks to boost his public standing before an election? Stranger things have happened...
France has a sizeable Arab population within its borders, and furthermore may wish to establish ties with the new leadership(s) in the changing Arab world. Being the first to acknowledge the new Libyan (rebel) leadership as legit, France may hope to score some points after the dust settles. Lucrative contracts are tobe had, both in the petrochem and (re)construction industry.
ReplyDeletenot if Khadafi remains in power. thats a big if right now.
ReplyDeleteConspiracy theory aside, one year is an eternity in politics.
ReplyDeletewell its no conspiracy theory and i agree that a year is an eternity but the US president has already indicated that he's running again, and Sarkozy is obviously feeling a bit of pressure on the home front. but even more importantly...French newsites are stating that his motivation is to bolster his standing in the run up to his reelection...not me.
ReplyDeleteL.A. Times started the juicy storyline, btw.
ReplyDeleteAnother theory - advertising for the Rafale
ReplyDeleteMerkel is doing the exact opposite to Sarkozy. Cameron and RAF looking to demonstrate capabilities despite defense cuts.
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ReplyDeleteI believe the biggest unanswere question is 'Who are the rebels' and who is the coalition jumping into bed with.
ReplyDeleteIt has been suggested that from the begining these so called rebels were formed in a large part by militant Islamists,the 'Muslim Brotherhood' and has no doubt been infiltrated by Iranian influences.
We may yet find out to our costs that we have jumped into bed with with people who are using us to further their aims in the area.
I have a feeling that in the long term this is going to go horribly wrong.
I've been saying for the last month the French would be the first in. France is a signifcant purchaser of Libyan oil; ~60% of their imported oil comes from Libya. France also built and supports much of Libya's oil infrastructure, with French oil companies owning and operating significant portions of the equipment.
ReplyDeleteSEAD + no-fly-zone + naval blockade
ReplyDeleteThat'd at least be more effective than establishing and enforcing a no-fly-zone alone. Best of wishes to the UN-backed international forces.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_no-fly_zone
@ Jeffrey
ReplyDeleteYour understanding of French energy import/export strategy is at least two-decade-old.
The country began a systematic attempt to decoupled itself from petro-politics/dependency since the 1973 Oil Crisis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France