Wednesday, March 23, 2011

One week in...who are the 'stars' of the conflict...

Time to do a tally of events in Libya...who are the stars and who are the big losers....

Stars...

1.  Surface Navy.
The Tomahawk strikes prove that they're relevant, vital and a strategic and tactical resource.  Our vaunted air arm still relies on this 70's era technology to kick in the door.
2.  26th MEU.
Its understrength but still delivering.  Everyone has forgotten that they deployed elements of this unit to Afghanistan then turned around and are supporting this effort.
3.  France.
They took the lead and pushed the US President into supporting this effort.  They might have blundered but they brought the US along for the ride.
4.  RAF.
They've effectively neutered the Royal Navy and established themselves as a long range strike force despite the Typhoon not being a capable ground attack platform.  Harriers would have been more effective off one of their carriers but they've nullified that with their early performance.

Losers...

1.  USAF CSAR.
An after action report showing that an understrength MEU was able to pull off this mission will effectively force the end of CSAR as the USAF practices it.  I see deep missions reverting to SOCOM entirely.  Expect more service specific efforts in the Army and the Marines to operate at the edge of the battlefield with SOCOM operating deep.  I expect the USAF to be out of a job and the Navy to piggy back on Marine efforts.
2.  B-2 bomber.
Despite the transcontinental flight of two of these airplanes, the efficacy of them as platforms of war must be questioned.  They're costly to operate and they still need tremendous support.  I believe calls to retire them and replace them with some type of advanced cruise missile will escalate.
3.  France.
They want a free hand outside of NATO control.  I don't think they'll have there way.  Whatever they planned for an endgame appears to already be in jeopardy.