Patrick made this statement...
Speaking of Argentina, if they tried to retake the Falklands today I seriously doubt the British would be able to defend their territory without seeking outside help. Without a carrier force, the U.K's only hope would be to throw the Argentinians back into the sea. Should they succesfully occupy the islands, it would be nearly impossible for the British to dislodge them on their own. I think if conflict returns to that region expect the British to ask the French, and maybe even the Italians or Spanish, to join the war and commit their carriers to the fight.I agree. Under the exact same circumstances the UK would not be able to retake the Falklands. Mike at New Wars once lauded the Brits and there small carriers as being outstanding examples of what the US should follow.
Too bad they threw it all away. Also notice that interoperability with the US Marines has been sacrificed in order to gain limited cross training with the US Navy. In doctrine, and approach the Marines/Royal Navy are closer in philosophy than the Royal Navy, French Navy and US Navy are.
If the sh!t really hit the fan in the South Atlantic again, the UK would again put a ring of subs around the islands - the Argies have a healthy respect for RN submarines, especially now those are equipped with Harpoon and TLAM.
ReplyDeleteThe UK could also sent Typhoons across, Tornadoes in a pinch, backed up by RAF E-3s, plus RAF C-17s could surge troops and (light) armor within days.
Still a light force to be sure, but I can guarantee that the Flaklands War has been studied ad nauseum by the RN and RAF in particular.
just out of curious.
ReplyDeletewhere would those Typhoons and Tornadoes launch from for a sustained air campaign once the airport has been knocked out?
second, yeah the RN could launch TLAMs but how big is the war stock especially in light of the US launching over 200 compared to the UK's 6?
how are you going to effectively surge material into the island once you get the Parachute battalion on the ground needing resupply?
speaking of the Paras...i guess they won't have helo support or if they do then i guess they'll be running low on ammo if the Argentinians make a fight of it.
sorry but the Royal Air Force has effectively screwed the British people on a theory that hasn't worked...air power isn't a war winner and doesn't keep bad actors (not calling Argentina a bad actor) from doing whatever.
Collin Powell once said that a battalion of Marines off the coast of a country is a bigger threat to dictators then a battalion of para troopers flying in.
the British Prime Minister forgot that or got sold the current notion by a smooth talking Air Marshall.
We're talking deterrent here; if Argentina makes (obvious) invasion plans, then the UK can pre-empt much more effectively than it did back in the '80s.
ReplyDeleteAlso Port Stanley has been improved to receive larger and more aircraft, so if Argentina would surge an amphibious fleet it would be vulnerable to both air and submarine attack as the Argies (still) lack sufficient naval ASW and AAW assets.
Speaking of that battalion off the coast; the RN still has the capability to deploy a brigade equivalent (with 1 LPH, LPD, 3 LSD(A), 2-4 Ro-Ros) and protect it effectively (SSNs, T-23 FFGs, T-45 DDGs).
Carriers would be nice, but only to retake the islands, not protect it. Let's not forget that Argentina still operates (modified) A-4R Skyhawks and Mirage III/Kfirs, so my money is on the RAF - and be perfectly safe. :)
I doubt Argentina is in much shape to take the Falklands. The ARA has only two Anphibs, one is a converted Type 42 with two helos, a few RHIBs and a company of marines crammed in, the other is a AK with no ramp or deck well.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if British SSNs had Towed Arrays back in 1982 but they sure do now, combine that with the fish and missiles they have an ARA invasion force wouldn't stand much of a chance. Just park one SSN down there and the islands are quite well defended. Other than that the UK could invest in a few basic defenses, some truck launched Harpoon ASMs would be great along with some howitzers dug in to the hills.
TLAM.
ReplyDeleteyou're thinking like a NAVAL SURFACE OFFICER!
think like a grunt!
you want to by pass all that strength! you infiltrate a team onto the island...you destroy the aircraft on the ground....Typhoons destroyed in the hangar can't do damage in the air!
instead of heading into the teeth of a formidable undersea threat you circumvent it by flying in your Marines and Infantry! total time to re-take the island?
2 days...minimum casualties...you immediately send envoys to the UN to sue for peace. you claim geographic rights to the island, you talk about British imperialism...
you play the race card.
you win.
Not sure that is much better.
ReplyDeleteThe Argentine air force has 10 C-130s, 2 of which are tankers and would be needed to support fighter cover for the drop and subsequent operations, plus 6 much smaller Fokkers and 4 Saabs (Suitable only for Paratrooper drops, no heavy kit). Now they could carry sufficient troops to do it (establish a toe hold that is), but they would need to capture one of the two airfields in the Falklands to have any hope of holding them. If the Brits are half as intelligent as I think they would have set up some sort of contingency plan to keep them from falling in to enemy hands (bombs under the runway or something). And attrition would be a huge problem, lose a transport plane on the first run to a MANPAD and you lose it for all the future runs as well. The Brits must have plenty of MANPADS and a few towed light/medium SAMs in the islands.
Ok so lets say they land about 800 or so troops with basic gear on the islands by air. The Brits sabotaged their airfields so prevent capture. Now target #1 for the Brits are going to be those aircraft that are needed to supply those troops on the Falklands (C-130s since they are the only ones that can carry in heavy gear like say APCs or Engineering vehicles). The Brits got Tomahawks that can strike the Argentine Air Bases the C-130s are based out of, might even bag a few on the ground, the very capable SAS/SBS could also take out a few. Basically destroy 8 aircraft and its game over. If they can't fly in heavy machinery they can't fix the runways, no runways = very bad resupply and no local CAP or ASuW Patrol.
Isolated from resupply it becomes a question of how long it takes for 200 Falkland Defense Force volunteers, 200 Army regulars and whatever guys from the 22nd (or similar) who get inserted to kill 800 Tangos.