I've been wondering what units are in the cross hairs of the accountants because of an article I read over at Information Dissemination that recommends cutting the Army.
So who are the units that are probably on the chopping blocks---or rather who is probably going to get looked at real hard when it comes time to save money? Below is my list....
1. Stryker Brigades.
This one is easy. The US Army is seeking to recapitalize these units with an up armored variant. Limit the number of units and you need less vehicles. Besides, with the move to procure the GCV its obvious that the US Army isn't quite sold on these vehicles.
2. Carriers.
Another easy one. The US Navy and Marines don't have enough aircraft to fully man the ships we do have. At full capacity (about 90 airplanes), we're probably at a point of where we actually have 6 or 7 carriers anyway. The Navy signaled the truth of this when they're voluntarily going down to 10 carriers.
3. US Air Force Tac Air.
An all stealth fighter force is pushing this. Precision weapons are another cause. And the new Air-Sea Battle concept is the final nail in the coffin for Tac Air supremacy in the Air Force. With everyone looking toward the pacific, you can't bet that the Bomber mafia is going to make a come back. That means fewer tac air squadrons.
4. USMC end strength.
The Marines are going to have to take their own ounce of pain so these hopeful figures of an end strength of 180,000 odd Marines is simply wishful thinking. Ideas of establishing an air wing to support Marine Special Ops won't help stop the bleeding either. That force (if its established) will come out of muscle. Expect the end result to be around 150,000.
5. US Army end strength.
I don't know the Army's current numbers but you can bet that even if ID hadn't brought it up, the results will be the same. After these wars, the accountants will ravage Army end strength...if for no other reason as to prevent the possibility of having another war of choice(?).
Winners will be the following....
1. Special Ops...for a while.
Special Ops will be the big winner in this equation...at least for a while. Then the bean counters will begin to notice that it costs more to support a company of special operators than it does to support a regiment of conventional troops. Special Ops has a chance to prevent a bad situation by getting costs under control but the Special Ops Mafia (in and out of uniform) will fight it which will see these forces shrink along with the rest of the military.
2. Sub force.
The boats will be older but the missions more numerous. Most of their activities are secret and with a rising Chinese Navy you can bet that they'll have more than enough work to keep them busy for decades. Its back to the future for the sub force...the Soviets are gone but the Chinese will make a worthy replacement.
3. Helicopter force.
These forces have been used hard in the current wars and the need to at least maintain the capability that we currently have will ensure rotary winged aviation across all the services remains well funded. Add to it the swing role it plays even in peace time and this is a growth industry.
I could easily be wrong but these are my guesses.
So who are the units that are probably on the chopping blocks---or rather who is probably going to get looked at real hard when it comes time to save money? Below is my list....
1. Stryker Brigades.
This one is easy. The US Army is seeking to recapitalize these units with an up armored variant. Limit the number of units and you need less vehicles. Besides, with the move to procure the GCV its obvious that the US Army isn't quite sold on these vehicles.
2. Carriers.
Another easy one. The US Navy and Marines don't have enough aircraft to fully man the ships we do have. At full capacity (about 90 airplanes), we're probably at a point of where we actually have 6 or 7 carriers anyway. The Navy signaled the truth of this when they're voluntarily going down to 10 carriers.
3. US Air Force Tac Air.
An all stealth fighter force is pushing this. Precision weapons are another cause. And the new Air-Sea Battle concept is the final nail in the coffin for Tac Air supremacy in the Air Force. With everyone looking toward the pacific, you can't bet that the Bomber mafia is going to make a come back. That means fewer tac air squadrons.
4. USMC end strength.
The Marines are going to have to take their own ounce of pain so these hopeful figures of an end strength of 180,000 odd Marines is simply wishful thinking. Ideas of establishing an air wing to support Marine Special Ops won't help stop the bleeding either. That force (if its established) will come out of muscle. Expect the end result to be around 150,000.
5. US Army end strength.
I don't know the Army's current numbers but you can bet that even if ID hadn't brought it up, the results will be the same. After these wars, the accountants will ravage Army end strength...if for no other reason as to prevent the possibility of having another war of choice(?).
Winners will be the following....
1. Special Ops...for a while.
Special Ops will be the big winner in this equation...at least for a while. Then the bean counters will begin to notice that it costs more to support a company of special operators than it does to support a regiment of conventional troops. Special Ops has a chance to prevent a bad situation by getting costs under control but the Special Ops Mafia (in and out of uniform) will fight it which will see these forces shrink along with the rest of the military.
2. Sub force.
The boats will be older but the missions more numerous. Most of their activities are secret and with a rising Chinese Navy you can bet that they'll have more than enough work to keep them busy for decades. Its back to the future for the sub force...the Soviets are gone but the Chinese will make a worthy replacement.
3. Helicopter force.
These forces have been used hard in the current wars and the need to at least maintain the capability that we currently have will ensure rotary winged aviation across all the services remains well funded. Add to it the swing role it plays even in peace time and this is a growth industry.
I could easily be wrong but these are my guesses.
The note about rotary wing aviation made me feel warm inside. WOFT hopeful here.
ReplyDeletecongratulations....and good luck..
ReplyDeletedo you think there will be renewed interest in buying even more virginia subs? we are building two a year now, i wonder if we got rid of the POS LCS and put it we could get 3 a year.
ReplyDeletegood luck JH, my brother is currently in intel school in navy reserve, he wants to go active but reserve got him to basic sooner, so he is hopeful.
Cutting the number of carriers would be a BAD idea. Lots of unintended consequences would come back to haunt us there.
ReplyDelete