Wow.
Hope those Typhoons are capable in the maritime strike arena, cause what Sharkey was worried about appears to be happening...the Falklands appear to be endangered, check this out via BlackFive from Assoluta Tranquilita...
Argentina has launched a naval campaign to isolate the Falkland Islands that has seen it detain Spanish fishing vessels on suspicion of breaking the country’s “blockade” of the seas around the British territories.
Read the whole thing but a couple of things are obvious. Weakness will be exploited. Its guaranteed.
Update:
For the doubters we have this from the Telegraph.
Argentine patrol commanders carrying out interceptions near the South American coast told Spanish captains they were in violation of Argentina’s “legal” blockade of sea channels to the Falklands.The warning has been backed up in a letter to Aetinape, the Spanish fishing vessels association from the Argentine embassy in Madrid warning boats in the area that “Falklands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands and adjoining maritime spaces are an integral part of the Argentine territory.”
Rubbish, it is a far cry from boarding fishing vessels to being able to mount any serious threat towards British supremacy over the Falklands.
ReplyDeletewhy rubbish?
ReplyDeletethe original story was in the Telegraph!
British lines are being probed and leadership is being tested.
For one,
ReplyDeleteThe Argentine navy is not exactly fearsome; it's state is far more pathetic than it was during the 82 war. Any 'blockade' attempt would be met by British SSNs and would be a bloodbath. And their air force hasn't improved a great deal either be it in new systems (fighters) or logistics (AEW and refuellers). The Typhoons or any RAF aircraft may not need to do a great deal.
About the Typhoons itself, MBDA has revealed plans to integrate the Marte ER missile for the Indian competition. While it may be lighter than the Harpoon/Exocet, it's more than adequate for the medium-small ships that Argentina has (with geriatric defenses). 4-6 of these missiles would in theory give the Typhoon enormous anti-ship capability for most scenarios.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?topicName=dubai_2011&id=news/awx/2011/11/14/awx_11_14_2011_p0-394043.xml&headline=Marte-ER%20Integration%20On%20Typhoons%20Eyed%20For%20India
emphasis on the "for India" when it comes to the Marte.
ReplyDeletesecond why, if the actions of the Argentinians are so easily swept away, hasn't the British foreign office responded to these provocative actions?
perhaps because they can't ... perhaps because they know what the British people don't --- that although you have formidable warships, you don't have the munitions to make them so.
you don't have enough for home defense much less the defense of Falklands.
Unlikely this will come to anything and the Argentinians know why. The UK put it on Youtube just a few weeks back...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdYVxK-wpUI
Who says the West doesn't know how to use "media" in current military matters?
:D
And what makes you think that the RAF won't or will not get strike features on their Typhoons. A deal from India (or even South Korea/Saudi Arabia) will provide new funds for faster integration. The RAF has already thrown enough indications for enhanced strike capability for the Typhoon.
ReplyDeleteAbout Argentina, what exactly does the Foreign Office gain by responding to each and every such incident? It will only start a p***ing match which the Argentines will use for domestic consumption. It would have been another matter if the Argentines impounded Britsh-flagged ships.
Again about ammuntions-are the RN's subs out of torpedoes? I haven't heard anything to that effect. Two Trafalgar class boats would be enough to finish off Argentina's navy. Besides it's not like Argentina is suddenly flush with ammo.
responding to provocative acts isn't starting a pissing match, its declaring that a group of islands that have British nationals living on them are going to be defended.
ReplyDeleteits also a way of challenging a false claim made by the Argentinians about the islands.
as it now stands they have made a claim against a European Union country that its ships are operating in its waters and not the waters of a member state.
the UK is having its punk card pulled and all its doing is watching events unfold.
additionally, its a pretty sorry state of upgrades that depend on exports to fund them.
the Typhoon has an extremely limited upgrade path and the vaunted Marte that you keep pointing to seems to depend on two things. first and perhaps most importantly is the Indians to purchase the plane so that the upgrades can be afforded and then a great deal of time...even then they won't be ready till 2018 and if the article you linked to is to be believed.
RAF support in a naval conflict is a pipe dream.
http://en.mercopress.com/2011/12/07/uk-protests-to-argentina-the-interception-of-falklands-licensed-fishing-vessels
ReplyDeleteMay be you didn't see this. What more should the Brits do-declare a blockade of their own?? The Argentines have been doing this for years. They know where they stand with regard to taking the Falklands and right now their economic and military capability is pretty lousy. For all their bravado, have their ever said they would cordon off the Islands to all foreign traffic?
Again as I said earlier, the RAF may not be needed to support it since the Argentines are still using the same equipment as during the last war.
The only pipe dream which is more obvious than the RAF supporting the RN is the Argentines having the means to challenge the UK. Bullying fishing boats is one thing-launching an all-out naval blockade with the real threat of force against a major power is another.
ReplyDeletei hadn't seen that.
ReplyDeleteso it seems that the Foreign office has responded to this act.
but did you read the whole article? the South American countries along with those in the carribean are uniting behind Argentina and declaring the falklands are actually part of that country.
i was right in saying that the islands are threatened. i just was wrong in the scale of the threat.
they're threatened diplomatically in the UN, by the unifying forces of the south american countries/carribean island nations...
and militarily by all of the above. our current administration will probably take a hands off approach on this....the EU will not want to get involved in a far off war over a colony and the British will have to fight a regional war on its own.
yep, things don't look good for the falklands people.
argentina bided its time and struck at the best moment. people are tired of war, we face a world wide economic crisis and it looks like the islands will fall back into their hands.
And what difference does Latin-AM solidarity make? Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have opposed Israeli military action and still do not recognise them. But when did they last go to war with Israel? Will Brazil, Chile, Venezuela and the rest forego massive trade ties with Britain and the rest of the EU to support a semi-basket case?
ReplyDeleteWould the likes of Brazil and Chile risk a conflict over a bunch of tiny islands? The Falklands are an emotive issue from a socialist/anti-colonialist POV but that's about it. Brazil and similar countries need the EU more than they need Argentina.
Argentina does not have the resources to take the Falklands. It's as simple as that. It's going to be quiet a different equation if there was domestic sentiment in the Falklands in favour of integration with Buenos Aires.
the EU doesn't need the developing market in S. America? they need the EU more than the EU needs them?
ReplyDeletereally?
say that out loud and see if it makes sense?
the US could easily fill the gap if the Eu pulled out. so could China...
additionally the entire Eu wouldn't act as a group and you can bet that France would still want to sell goods to Brazil...you can bet that they would like to upgrade Argentinian weapons...you can bet that Germany wants to sell more Leopard tanks to S. American countries.
yeah, its a totally different kettle of fish. also lets not inflate the number of people on the islands.
would the British people really want to start another war over say 2.000 people on an island over 8000 miles away?
i doubt it.
and part of the problem can be laid at the feet of current british defense posture.
Yes it makes perfect sense. Argentina is not China which can afford to go around knocking down Carre Four outlets and ransacking Japanese stores given its economic and military size. The Latin-AM nations need EU investment (to balance the US) which is why all they have done is issue messages like the one you talk about.
ReplyDeleteTell me when Brazil decides to send warships and fighters to support the Argentines; they've
not even dispatched a tugboat for these 'interceptions'. Even Hugo Chavez has shown more noise than substance on the Falklands. And the possibility of EU unity cannot be dismissed as simply as you say. The French also have colonies and island territories in the region including the EU's main space launch facility. There's a reason to oppose ultra-nationalism.
Do the Argentines want the Falklands back-sure. But they are not in a position to do so for the next couple of years.
Typhoons are not needed here. Tornado GR4's would do the job nicely. The problem is where do you base them? IF SA banded together, then the line gets rather long. Would make the decision to retire the Harriers look rather foolish. Though I'm sure that could be reversed if need be, depending on timing of course.
ReplyDelete