The Marine Gazette back in the day ran tactical problems in their magazine. The problems were based on historical situations that required some out of the box thinking, inspirational leadership and a bit of risk taking.
They always ended with the question to the reader...What now Lt after presenting a seemingly impossible situation to be solved.
You had to tune in the following month to get the "Marine Corps" answer to the problem.
Well despite some thinking that I'm being hysterical in my thinking that the F-35 is in trouble not from its critics but from the military establishment...and by extension budget cutters, other airplane manufacturers etc....its time for the Marine Corps as a whole to say collectively.
What now?
A couple of things not to do...
1. Do NOT buy Super Hornets. An interim jet will quickly become a good enough jet if we fall into that trap.
2. Do NOT slep F/A-18C's and D's. Pouring good money after bad in an attempt to keep elderly airframes viable especially when spare parts will be difficult to obtain is a suckers bet.
3. Do NOT abandon the aviation neck down campaign.
Now a couple of things TO do...
1. Do explore the possibility of upgrading the engines on the Harriers.
2. Do explore the possibility of avionics upgrades to the Harrier.
3. Do explore the possibility of fitting an AESA radar on the Harrier.
A couple of things to investigate as cheaply as possible...
1. Is it possible to mount a bigger, more aerodynamically viable wing to the Harrier? One that will increase range and speed?
2. Does it make sense to convert the two seat training models into FAC's?
3. Does a stretched Harrier make sense?
I still believe the F-35B will enter service but I'm becoming more and more convinced that it will be in the 2020 time period and not 2014 or 2015 as had been hoped.
Fat chance on getting early slots on the production line too. The USAF will be in need of replacements as much as the USMC.
So my question to you all is what now?
Note:
You can bet big bucks that some of the allies will drop out now with the excuse being that they can't wait till 2020 to replace airframes. Gripen will be laughing all the way to the bank...Typhoon and Rafael will still be priced out of the market and Super Hornet MIGHT pick up some orders but for our European allies, you can bet that the push to buy European will be as strong there as it is for our defense department to buy US. The most interesting ally to watch in this whole episode will be the Canadians.
That's why this is such a huge deal. Just a couple of weeks ago the Canadian Defense Minister came out fully in support of the F-35 (as did the Australian) and not only that but so did the US SecDef.
Now the Program Manager just cut the legs from underneath not only our guy but the guys in other countries.
If this wasn't a planned announcement then we should see a walk back on Monday. If it was planned then we should see a clarification and amplification on Monday.
Either way Monday should be interesting.
I agree, the US purchase of the UK's remaining fleet of Harriers is a sure sign we won't see the F-35B until 2020. From what I understand, if we need to market the F-35 to second tier allies, i.e. India or Brazil, then maybe we should, because so many countries don't want to purchase the F-18, they want the new stuff. It seems like the amount of planes purchased in the end is going to be the big question, one that no one can really answer right now, because everyones finances are screwed... Personally, my favorite is the "B" version, VTOL is definitely the future, especially long term for the civilian market, think urban environments. I'm very confident that the UK Harriers will get us through the next 10 years, there are so many of them.
ReplyDeleteHi Sol,
ReplyDeleteIn answer to your questions:
1. - Upgrading the wing of the Harrier is a big no. The wing is one of the most critical components on the aircraft and if you start tinkering with it you affected so many other parts that the costs shoot way up. Just isn't worth it.
2. - I believe (and might be wrong) that UK T-10 two seaters are combat capable, so this upgrade should be easy enough based on current industry know-how.
3. - Stretched harrier doesn't make sense. Would cost too much for the gain in performance. You'll be better off putting your money into solving the F-35Bs numerous problems.
4. - As for engine upgrades, the UK upgraded some harriers to use the Mk 107 Pegasus engine. I don't think the AV-8Bs had this fitted, so with the spares you got off the UK (Stupid, stupid MoD - I hate this government!!!!!!) you should be able to upgrade some aircraft with newer engines.
5. - AESA upgrade - again you are spending a lot of money - is it worth it? Probably only worth doing if the F-35B gets cancelled.
6. - As for avionics, great care needs to be taken to prevent spending a lot of money on minimal performance gains. I'm not an expert on avionics so will leave it there!
Anyone reading this feel free to correct my info in this post as I've done it all from memory!
Keither.
ReplyDeletei hope you're right. seems like all bets are off right now.
Tom.
wow. the only good news in what appears to be a very knowledgeable response is that the T-10's can be used, possibly, in the FAC role. oh and that we might be able to use some of those upgraded Pegasus engines! seems like we're stuck in what will probably be a protracted development of the F-35.