Information Dissemination has a story out about naval movements to the Gulf in preparation for a war against Iran.
Additionally there has been rumblings about Fighter Squadrons on the West Coast getting orders to ship out to the Middle East in support of operations and supposedly one of the Marine Expeditionary Brigades Headquarters is suppose to be going down range to become MEB (FWD).
These movements are outside the normal rotation pattern.
Between the information that Information Dissemination provided, in addition to the rumor control about fighters and I do believe we're seeing the world line up for ANOTHER war in the middle east.
Additionally there has been rumblings about Fighter Squadrons on the West Coast getting orders to ship out to the Middle East in support of operations and supposedly one of the Marine Expeditionary Brigades Headquarters is suppose to be going down range to become MEB (FWD).
These movements are outside the normal rotation pattern.
Between the information that Information Dissemination provided, in addition to the rumor control about fighters and I do believe we're seeing the world line up for ANOTHER war in the middle east.
An air campaign against Iran and dealing with how they can respond (mines being the biggest threat) will certainly be a war but it's not going to involve large numbers of ground forces.
ReplyDeleteOne can speculate on whether it happens before or after the election but it's probable the decision has not been made and that preparations might influence Iran (doubtful) and/or placate Israel.
If Israel has managed to convince the Administration that they will attack Iran then it's possible we got them to hold off and promised we'd do it after we got more political cover by trying sanctions and diplomacy.
In any case the world is a lot more dangerous with a nuclear Iran than it is dealing with the fallout of an air campaign against them. The inevitable nuclear arms race in the Middle East alone is a huge long term consequence that demands we try and head it off. This leaves aside Iran being empowered to be more of a PITA.
Frankly the only thing that's going to stop Iran going nuclear is a sustained air campaign with follow up as needed and the argument this will strengthen the leadership misses the point that the nuclear program goes back to the Shah and is popular. A more moderate regime will still see it as a long term goal.
ground forces wouldn't necessarily apply to the bombing campaign against Iran but rather their counter moves.
ReplyDeleteoptions that Iran could play would include....
1. strikes against Iraq
2. mobilizing HAMAS to attack Israel
3. getting Syria to attack Israel
4. coercing Egypt to participate in an attack against Israel
5. reinforcing the Taliban for attacks against coalition forces in Afghanistan.
i really see the MEB being moved forward as more of a solidification of the theater reserve than anything else. remember we have an MEU acting in that capacity right now. the only Army unit that could surge quickly to the area is the 82nd or a light infantry division. they would need to attach themselves to motorized/mechanized assets. it would make sense for them to fall underneath the MEB for such an activity.
oh and from my observation there is no such thing as a moderate Islamic government.
I agree with 4 of 5 Sol, i dont think Iran can get syria to attack isreal. While Syria would love the chance and will provide assistance to Hezbollah and egypt to the extent possible, Assad is fighting for his life and the situation there is almost if not already a civil war and i cant imagine syria having the military ability to engage in an external conflict while its own people are rebelling.
ReplyDeleteSol, Karzai reads your blog.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/afghanistan-wants-early-takeover-security-karzai-004101518.html
Those ballistic missiles Iran has been developing could be targeted at oil refineries, oil pumping facilities at ports, military bases in the Gulf. A barrage of a dozen or so at each target might actually get lucky.
ReplyDeleteIran getting Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel is probably a given. Doing much in Iraq or Syria is doubtful but assisting more in Afghanistan is probable but less immediate. The biggest threat they have are naval mines. Their ballistic missile threat will be targeted early and often and both the US and Israel have mature systems that can hit them in flight.
ReplyDeleteCertainly we'll reinforce in the area and it's not clear we know how many heavy brigades will be in Kuwait among other places. Deploying more mine hunters, which we're doing, is a key indicator.
Sol I totally agree there are no moderate Islamic regimes. What I meant by more moderate was non Islamic as in after the revolution or civil war most people hope they have one day. A non Islamic Iran would eventually go nuclear. The program started under the Shah when he was our ally and also got along well with Israel. Hell in the 70's we were talking about selling them heavy bombers.