Canada's TAPV is another of those armored vehicle programs that's suddenly gotten quiet.
During 2011 there was a flurry of activity...Textron even moved into a new building in Canada...but nothing since. My big worry is that once the JLTV, GCV, MPC and ACV programs are done (in addition to this one) that's going to be a wrap for the foreseeable future.
I think we're seriously heading into a time of upgrades and upgrades only. It is entirely possible that the same tank (with upgrades) being driven today will be the same one thats driven by some Tankers great grandson in 2050.
That should give everyone in the armor industry pause. The great armor depression is right around the corner.
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While I agree this state of affairs will probably exist in most Western nations other nations are not going to be in any armored stasis and in fact that demand might drive development and eventually force Western nations to get back in the game to either keep up or just to stay in the export market.
ReplyDeleteConsider Germany developing a new IFV and Israel developing the most heavily protected infantry carrier in the world. Both of these should see export. Korea continues to develop a broad range of new armored vehicles for both export has exported designs for production in Turkey.
Indeed there's a pretty significant trend for infantry carriers getting heavier, and self propelled guns going to 155/52, which is going to continue.
Germany has had such good export success that eventually they will develop a new tank if only to have something to export when they run of Leo 2's.
Active protection systems together with better armor is going to lead to someone eventually deciding that direct fire tank guns are more central to modern warfare than others might think and that they require more firepower leading to either more powerful 120mm guns or something larger.
Consider that today some nations have moved from the 120/44 to 120/55, including Germany and South Korea. China and Russia will also eventually field something that makes some nations nervous just upgrading current generation MBT's.
The consolidation is more likely to happen to European firms. France and the UK might have built their last MBT's but South Korea (Turkey under license, Israel, India, China, Russia, and others are all continuing development and building new tanks.