An inexplicable victory by 2 Para.
I'm going to have to Google it but I recall something about them training for just this scenario and some of those lessons having directly affected this battle.
On a similar but different subject. If the Falklands happened today...with the Argentinians getting forces onto the islands...could the British retake them independently?
No big surprise the media story didn't mention the fact that the BBC leaked the story that 2nd Para was ready to assault Goose Green and Darwin hours before the attack and the commander of 2nd Para, who died in the assault, promised to sue the BBC as he himself heard the announcement before leading the assault.
ReplyDeleteAs for today Sol you really can't assume the Argentinians get ashore. They don't have that capability and they'd have to rebuild the entire air force and develop a lot of force projection capacity to even attempt it again.
The odd thing was they took out the good troops that made the invasion and mostly replaced them with units of conscripts. If they had simply fought another week or two they'd have prevented a British victory in 82 as the naval forces were just about done in. At least that's the opinion of the task force commander, Sandy Woodward, in his book on the conflict.
strategic planning dictates that you plan for the what if's.
ReplyDeleteso i ask again. what if the Argentinians are able to take the Falklands. could the Brits retake them independently?
The problem is that the question can't be answered in that kind of vacuum. The ability to take the islands would indicate a massive increase in Argentinian capability, say over a period of at least ten years. The Brits get to react to this trend.
ReplyDeleteThat said if you want to assume Argentina can wave a wand and suddenly have the capability to take out the Falklands then I'd argue that in that scenario the Brits at this time can't retake the islands. There's going to be a ten year gap without naval aviation and the only real issue for the Brits is not losing the islands because they can't currently retake them. Which is fine given Argentina doesn't have the capability to take the islands and defeat the present defending force.
The question at this time should really be "can the Argentineans conduct a successful invasion".
ReplyDeleteAlthough the UK at this moment in time is not equipped to put in place the same fleet components it had available in 1982 it is still a formidable force. The lack of any air component would preclude any form of retake of the island if the Argentineans were able to put in place the same 1982 force updated to 2012 capabilities (F16's etc rather than A4's). However as has been pointed out they don't have anywhere near that capability. The permanent (much larger than 1982) garrison of UK troops stationed in the Falklands would certainly give the Argentineans food for thought especially as a good proportion of those troops are now combat veterans of 1 or even 2 fairly nasty war zones.
Air and sea coverage by radar and satellite is much greater now, increasing any warning time of seaborne or airborne attack. Given fair warning the few Typhoons stationed at mount pleasant should at least be able to put up a passable resistance along with ground based air defence systems Additional air assets would be transited to the Falkland's along with more troops and equipment by C17 airlift (There will definitely be plans for this eventuality tucked away in London) the moment there is a hint of real danger. The larger garrison also means a larger quantity of more modern weapons and communications gear. It's fair to say the troops landing on the beach would not be very happy with the reception certainly the landing craft and assault ships would probably be greeted by the sharp and pointy end of a dozen's or more Javelin ATGMs.
The final nail in the coffin of any invasion by current Argentinean forces would be hammered in by the RN. Depending upon which ship is available for patrol could result differing outcomes, but for entertainment value let's assume it's a T45 tooling around down there. No anti-surface missiles well that's a game for helicopters and subs in the RN, but god help anything flying where it shouldn't. And it's a given that there will be at least one T class boat sneaking around with torpedoes for large vessels (spearfish is a nasty piece of work) and tomahawks should the Argentineans manage to secure a beachhead however unlikely.
Speculation is always fun though :)
Guthy
"so i ask again. what if the Argentinians are able to take the Falklands. could the Brits retake them independently?"
ReplyDeleteThe UK has a bigger/better amphib fleet than it had last time, so winning the ground war isn't a problem.
The *only* question is, can the destroyers win the airwar?
In 1982, they didn't.
(I say didn't rather than couldn't, because the destroyer captains wanted to head west and fight in the open ocean)
However, in 1991, a Type 42 shot down a Silkworm missile that had been fired at the USS Missouri.
A target smaller than and faster than an Argentine fighter
And they've been even further upgraded, and replaced, since then.
Anyone attacking a T45 with dumb bombs has balls of steel or a brain of cheese
I'll take a leaf out of Tom Clancy's "Debt of Honour". Would three "chartered" Boeing 747 and two Boeing 747 cargo be sufficient? Ok, you've got a ground force of, maybe, 1200 troops (400 troops per 747).
ReplyDeleteTake some high-speed Ro-Ro and you can put some armour and SAMs.
For Infantry to relieve the first wave ... another set of ships.
The HRM Queen Elizabeth will be celebrating her jubilee. Nice time to spring a "surprise".