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This is one of two issues I can't let go of this weekend. The other is the killing of British Soldiers by Apache Attack Helicopters. More on that later.
But let me ask you to do this.
Look around your city or town. Look at the construction sites. Look at the big rigs on the road.
Look at all the shipping containers.
Imagine what would happen if a single container was smuggled into the US. Imagine if it was launched at a big city.
Imagine if it hit nothing.
Imagine the terror. Imagine if the people that claimed credit were from a terrorist organization. A drug cartel. A crimminal organization.
Do you think that such an act would affect world trade? Do you not think that such an act would ground world trade to a halt?
That's my point with this. I don't know what kind of controls are on this weapon. But it has the ability to destabilize world trade just because of the way that its disguised. If used with imagination these conventional weapons have the intimidation power of a nuclear weapon.
Think about that the next time you see a container at a local site.
Think about that the next time you see a container at a local site.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_767
Fear of those didnt last long....
controlling aviation is easy. people that operate aircraft are relatively few. large airliners are closely monitored. consider containers. they're everywhere.
ReplyDeleteinspections of everyone would bog up the works. smuggling one would be easy. that's the difference.
One way to stop this might be to keep your eyes open, as these have slight differences from your normal shipping container, and to get our customs act together.
ReplyDeleteIt would probably affect trade briefly, then airline style checks would come in as containers were unloaded i'd guess, it'd slow it down a little but airports haven't become less used due to that, neither would container shipping, as its too vital with no real alternative. They'd adapt as ever when a new threat appears, usually after an attack scares people into action.
ReplyDeleteAgain an attack would be useless without an aiming mechanism for these missiles, what is that mechanism here?
Finally the entire Israeli nation sits under a very really threat of missile attack constantly, they have adapted. So in an extreme, even if you cant stop the missiles getting in, you can adapt to the threat of the occasional, poorly aimed conventional missile.
Aiming? Who cares about aiming? How many ships can carry a 40 TEU? ALOT!
DeleteAll you need is point the missile towards the US and push the "Fire" button. You do not need to aim. The effect of chaos and massive panic is enough. If you want WWIII, then you get a handful of them ships and each ships, say, a handful of them Club K ...
The main question is this: What arsenal in the US inventory, right now, OPERATIONAL, can stop a Club K hitting US soil with ZERO intelligence warning. I don't think I want to know the answer.
Give a complete set off Club K to China and withing 18 months China can mass-produce this and start handing them out to Iran and NK.
i'm going to assume that you aren't aware of how many containers even one ship carries. the numbers we're talking about are staggering. they don't even try and inspect 1/10th of the number that come into the US or any country.
ReplyDeletecomparing a land mass the size of Israel with the US is laugable. even the UK is rather large in comparison. simply put their is no way that the US can be covered by any type of air defense umbrella. we can barely cover important large cities. we can probably cover DC, New York and maybe Los Angeles. everything else is just toast.
aiming is supposedly gps.
Terrorism is not really the issue. If the point is that we can't inspect shipping containers, why not just fill a shipping container with explosives and ship it to whatever you want to blow up? You don't need a missile to cause chaos, just a big bomb.
ReplyDeleteWhat is interesting about them is containerized weapons as a response to US ISR dominance. Missiles that look like shipping containers are orders of magnitude more difficult to detect using satellites and advance airborne radars, the keystones of US ISR. The significance of these weapons is the possibility of preserving significant forces even in the face of the US dominating both space and airspace over your country.
How are these missiles fired? Is it done remotely or does someone have to be at the container? It looks to me like there is a control room in the container. If so that, and the fact that the container has to be placed in such a way that it can be opened, means that the crew of the ship has to be in on the secret. This would reasonably mean that they can only be carried by ships of hostile nations so the problem becomes much more manageable.
ReplyDeleteSol, how many passengers board a plane every day? Probably more than shipping containers entering ports. How long would it really take to open an close a container door as it entered?
ReplyDeleteI didn't mean to compare missile defense possibilities there either, I meant in human mentality, Israel lives under threat of attack by missiles, and still functions. And if aiming is by GPS (a US controlled device) then there must be ways of stopping the aiming mechanism.
Fencer also makes some good points.
not not really. if you look at shipping containers and if you consider the cargo they carry and how large they are then the comparison should be not between people but between cargo carried by air versus cargo carried by sea.
ReplyDeleteone super large shipping container ship probably equals the amount of cargo carried by air. besides. you're talking freaking global trade.
how you're able to dismiss this so easily is beyond me but its there.
I know it isn't as sexy as ASCM, but China's cyberwarfare program needs to be take into account.
ReplyDeleteWith Cyberwarfare, the Chinese can dial up the disruptive impact it has on a target nation. By itself, a Club K attack might not cause lot's of damage per se, but followed up with cyberattacks against selected areas would be very scary.
Imagine the West Coast of the US. In terms of infrastructure like oil, water, electricity, the West Coast of the US is isolated from the rest of the US due to the Rocky Mountains.
Now consider an initial attack against US Spy satellites above the Pacific with Club K attack against all of the oil refineries on the West Coast in addition to NMD radar sites, B-52 bases and Naval sub bases.
Combine that with cyber attacks to shut down water-treatment plants or pumping stations and attacks against the electric grid to shut down water and electricity for the West Coast.
Perhaps some tertiary attacks against 9-1-1 call centers to interfere with First-Responders, media outlets to distribute disinformation (broadcasting incorrect instructions for relief or announcing the US has been erupted into civil war/military coup or the Eastern US has been wiped out).
And in the wake of all of that, China could vehemently deny any responsibility at all and it would take weeks or months before the US could find or present convincing information supporting China's involvement.
Meanwhile it would take months for the US gov't to re-establish control and get the gasoline, water, electricity, and food distribution up and running.
Yes, we could blockade China and do much of the same to it, but would the rest of the world sanction it in the face of Chinese denials or at the risk of completely disrupting the Global economy? The Chinese could plead or rationalize that militarily, their attacks caused little damage and deny all involvement of cyberattacks or simply dismiss any resulting chaos as evidence of the 'violent, criminal or disparate wealth aspects of American society'. Those lies would find many sympathetic ears in much of the world.
Personally, I think we'd counter-attack regardless of world opinion, but the real question is would our allies joins us or would it be a US-only affair?)
What if Iran waited until US Carriers were out of the region, steaming towards the Pacific, and then started mining the Straights of Hormuz or launching ballistic missile attacks US bases in the Persian Gulf?
I don't think any traditional attack alone would be as effective as one combined with disruptive cyber warfare. And that would be the Assassin's mace/Asymmetric warfare that should scare the chocolate out of everybody.
Hi Sol,
ReplyDeleteHad a look at this not long ago
http://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2012/06/a-tale-of-deception-and-two-containers/
I agree with you, could be a serious issue