Israel has approved the call-up of 30,000 reservists as it moves troops towards Gaza.It increases the prospect of a ground war - while Palestinian militants fired rockets at Tel Aviv, Israel's main commercial city, for the first time in 20 years. Sky's Middle East Correspondent Sam Kiley said: "In British terms, the number (of reservists) is pretty close to 10 brigades - a vast number of troops. These will be armour, infantry and specialists in support, but most likely to fill in the gaps likely to be left as troops are moved down towards Gaza."There's already been an increase in movement of ground troops close to Gaza, the movement of tanks and so on."If there is going to be a ground offensive, those troops have got to come from somewhere else and they would need to be back-filled."So, in all likelihood, this is all part of the military planning for a ground assault into Gaza, should the Israeli prime minister so order."It's part of the plan, but that order has not yet been given. But this is a strong indication that Israeli troops are preparing to go into the Gaza Strip."Guess what people. In Marine Corps terms the Israeli's just activated a Marine Expeditionary Force. Or if you're talking US Army they just stood up the two plus reinforced divisions.
In man power terms this is no little thing...its a big fucking deal.
My question to you all is this. The Israeli's have moved into the Gaza Strip before. They're well practiced in it and they even have Special Ops Units that specialize in operating in the occupied territories.
Do you believe this cover story or are you finally coming around to my way of thinking...this is a cover for something much bigger.
You think the Israelis are going to take care of business at home before looking across the Fertile Crescent to Persia?
ReplyDeleteyep. that's it exactly. they're going to put a heel on the throat of Hamas and then they're going after the crazies in Tehran.
DeleteIt's neither a cover story nor the start of something else. It's a response to attacks from Gaza exactly like 2009. If it was part of a plan to take down the numbers of rockets Hamas and others have in Gaza prior to a later attack on Iran then it sure was convenient Hamas and the other groups just happened to pick this week to escalate rocket attacks.
ReplyDeleteIsrael doesn't need to do this in order to strike Iran. They're not linked. Rocket attacks on Israel are disruptive and kill people but they're not a militarily significant threat but a terror weapon.
they've been launching rockets at Israel for two years now. there is no reason for the Israeli's to suddenly decide enough is enough now. especially since they waited till after the US elections that indicates something.
Deleteask the question. why now? its because this is part of the prep work to go after Iran. they've signalled it and so have we. remember the exercises in the gulf with mine hunting ships? remember the Iranians shooting at one of our drones last week?
it all adds up. you're just not using your calculator.
You asked the question and here's the answer: Election. Israeli PM election.
DeleteBebe is in trouble. Particularly when he backed the wrong horse, Romney. Now he's gotta make himself "shine" to his country or Barak might kick him out of office.
hmmm. quite honestly i never considered that. BUT! there is a big anti-war faction in Israel. starting a conflict that seems ill planned is a risky way to win an election.
DeleteLane: Gaza attacks Israel, The IDF attack Gaza, Egypt supports Gaza and is pulled into the fight, Syria is already sending rebel forces towards the Israeli border, the IAF interdicts these forces before they can influence to battle in Syria, Syria goes full on attacking Israel with all assets Conv and Chems.
DeleteThe IDF hits Syria hard and then Iran joins in with strikes and bombardments as well as any troops it has close to the Region, The Russian Federation will roll into Syria to protect and hold the Port of Latakia, Israel goes full whup ass on Iran and every Muslim state and nation declares war on Israel.
This is a very real scenario of how the region will explode.
Questions: Will Obama stay out, attack the Russian's (doubtful)attack the Iranians or bomb hell out of the Israeli's?
i can answer that one. Obama would let Israel fry. that's why i think they're acting now. they tried to wait on the US and their last chance was a Romney win. when that didn't happen all bets are off and they're about to take care of business there own way.
DeleteYes, Obama won and the Israeli's time has run out, before the inauguration the IDF/IAF must do something.
DeleteAll we can do is wish them good fortune and good hunting.
Thing is also Israel's a bit anxious about the Egyptian reaction, mobilizing so many forces is also a message for south of the border : "if you mess up with our policy in Gaza and think about trying something, please know we're ready". Since Syria is unable to do anything and Jordan won't move for various reasons, it only means that Libanese Hezbollah fighters are the only threat left. Thus if we see moves in the North then we can be more confident of action against Iran, but right now I think it's in part linked to some new weapons arrival in Gaza (probably from Lybian stocks) : we've already seen some long range rockets being fired at Tel Aviv, I think they and some other gadgets are as much a reason to move as the local elections. After all the Israeli government knows that such an operation might please it's right wing but will cost money, displease many citizens, displease international opinion and is a risk of becoming another failure like the last lebanese operation...
ReplyDeleteThat's according to whether you, me, the arabs or the Israeli's consider the Lebanese operation a failure.
DeleteThose 400 rockets hitting the displeased citizens may change their displeasure, The Palis have hit Jerusalem, and international opinion doesn't buy protection from those missiles and it doesn't stop them.
Battle field experience in Lebanon taught the Israeli's a few things to do different.
Israel's population considered it as mostly a failure, and the previous assault on Gaza as a attempt to rebuild the IDF's legend of strenght and victories.
ReplyDeleteNow the 400 rockets were fired but I also read that about half of the projectiles were in fact destroyed in fligh by Iron Dome batteries (btw I wonder how many missiles the IDF has left for them...), and that's the first big lesson from this conflict. And that might impact the israeli population's view of things : if the current, incomplete, system can down more than half of the ennemy ordinance, why keep fighting them ? isn't the dome good enough ?
(now it's a pity we don't hear of some THEL laser units reactivated to test them in real life conditions...)
Its roughly the same number of reserves called up for Cast Lead.
ReplyDeleteThey are going into Gaza.
They have simply learnt the lessons of urban combat we refuse to learn.
One soldier per 20 civillians, minimum.
If they go in with 20,000 soldiers, they can expect to control 400,000 civillians at best.
Bryaxis
Its considerably more expensive to shoot down an incoming rocket than to locate and destroy the launch site with counter battery fire.
Read reports as high 70,000 called up.
ReplyDeleteEither thats 70,000 mobilised (IE 40,000 active and 30,000 reserves) or this isnt a punitive raid on Gaza....
The Israeli's have good intel on Gaza. Its too small for them not to. additionally they have Special Ops teams thaat specialize in operating there. next the Palestinians depend on the Israeli economy and aid...they could have handledthis with just the regualar army ...the reserves being called up indicates a much wider effort than just Gaza.
DeleteActually what the IDF often does is concentrate it's active forces and call up reserve forces to fill in for those. So a unit on the Lebanese and/or Syrian border assigned to go down for Gaza would normally be replaced up north with a reserve unit. This isn't to say some reserve units wouldn't be used in Gaza but calling up 30,000 to 70,000 reserves (out of roughly 500,000) does not indicate anything other than Gaza. Of course we'll know shortly...
ReplyDelete