Sunday, December 30, 2012

SOCOM under the budget gun?

I said budget gun in the title because I believe that when you boil it all down in the military it all comes back to budget.

But the main story is this.  SOCOM leadership wants a clarification on future roles...a couple of things are happening.  First you have the Big Army getting into the Special Forces mission of Foreign Training.  Next you have Washington D.C. relying more and more on drones to simply kill terrorist leaders.  Check out his tidbit.
The hunter-killer approach has worked for the past decade and reached its apex with the Osama Bin Laden raid in May 2011, Robinson argues in a recent essay in Foreign Affairs.
U.S. SOCOM Commander Adm. William McRaven is ready to move forward to a new era of fewer raids and more long-term partnerships with friendly nations’ militaries and civilian agencies, she says. The so-called “indirect” approach to combating terrorists, Robinson says, is more effective in the long term and will help U.S. special operations forces regain some balance after a stressful decade of nonstop fighting.
“Many people in the special operations community tell me there ought to be a pivot away from direct to indirect approach, relying on partnerships,” Robinson says in a Dec. 18 conference call with reporters. “This is a perfect moment in the post Bin Laden era to pivot away from the extreme focus on drones and unilateral raids to let the special operations community use an indirect approach.”
“McRaven is serious about this,” she says. He has become alarmed by U.S. overreliance on drone attacks, Robinson adds. “This is really the fork in the road that Washington faces. Will it take a more balanced approach or not?”

U.S. SOCOM officials are frustrated because they see official Washington becoming excessively infatuated with the kill-and-capture tactics, says Robinson. Many lawmakers and Obama administration officials view these tactics as the silver bullet that will eradicate extremist groups that threaten the United States. That thinking is misguided, says Robinson. Organizations such as al-Qaida replace their leaders after they are killed in U.S. raids, she says. “Networks can regenerate.” There is also political and diplomatic fallout from unilateral operations that will hurt U.S. efforts in the long run, she says.
I trust McRaven about as far as I can throw him.

If he thought direct action raids could continue as they have for another decade then he'd be all over it.  Thats why I say follow the money and check the budgets.

My guess is that some smart boy in DC finally number crunched SOCOM and found that it was cheaper just to blast targets with drones.

McRaven's real problem is that the Marine Corps and Big Army are getting into the Foreign Training mission, Direct Action missions are drying up and the State Dept is finally getting its own little military (along with air support) so the opportunities to grow SOCOM have come and gone.

Read the whole article here but my guess is that SOCOM only has one growth area left...find a new low tech war somewhere with an enemy that has a different name than AQ.

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