This is via Naval Open Source Intelligence.
If Syria has gone chemical then this is an escalation that can't be ignored by the West.
The response will probably entail the use of Special Forces to lead the rebels and maybe Rangers or MARSOC conducting raids. Either way this is going to get messy...and that's whether we get involved or not.
Note:
The more I think about this the more chilling it becomes. First try and keep Israel from going crazy and bombing someone back to the stone ages when the threat of these weapons getting into terrorist hands is so high. Next imagine what will happen if AQ gets ahold of some of this stockpile. Our guys will wish for the days when all they had to worry about were snipers and IED's. Imagine conducting combat operations in MOPP level 1? Heat casualties will skyrocket but what could a commander do if he has credible intel on terrorist mixing mustard gas with IED's?
Two days before the celebrated birth of our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ and they pull this.
Damn.
One video a chemical attack doth not make. There could be any number of causes of the respiratory symptoms this unfortunate man is displaying, if real (you just don't know). If verified then the twin spectres of both a holocaust visited upon the Syrian people and the proliferation of terrorist access to chemical weapons are indeed very real but there needs to be reliable verification before making any conclusions.
ReplyDeletei totally agree but the rebels have been pretty reliable in there reporting. they said Scuds were launched and they were. they said airplanes and helicopters were being used and they were. they said snipers were indiscriminately shooting at civilians and they were.
Deleteall i'm saying is that this fits in the pattern of escalation that we're seeing from the current regime. and if they have indeed launched chemical weapons then it has implications for the US, Israel, Afghanistan and the whole region.
Indeed, and we haven't seen all the fallout and the impact of whatever really happened in Libya, both during the topplling of gaddafi and events since, at least not in the public domain. The potential for unintended and unforeseen consequences, both in the immediate area e.g. those countries bordering collapsing regimes and further away is immense.
DeleteThe holiday season not withstanding, one has to wonder what the Americans are going to do about this. On much less evidence and chance of this sort of weapons getting loose, the USA invaded Iraq. So what now?
ReplyDeletethat's the problem. i don't trust the current administration to act forcefully enough to contain the threat and our friends are over extended too.
Deletequite honestly either China will enter the breach or Israel will be left to their own devices. the most i see this admin doing is getting UN declarations.
And Sol, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours.
ReplyDeleteto you too Jonathan. thanks for all the stories. keep em coming please. also is their any independent verification of this story from a news source i might have missed?
DeleteThe U.S. and the Arabs in the region (including Turkey) should of thought about this before they started to undermine the Assad government.
ReplyDeleteWe have some idiots in Washington that think they can do what they weren't able to do in Libya, which is keep these weapons from getting into terrorists hands.
First off Sol, i'd just point out that while the rebels may well have been accurate in their reporting, that may not preclude them from attempting to misinform others of the use of chemical weapons. Think about it, it'd be a major coup for them, make it harder for Russia and China to keep blocking condemnation of the regime, and force the West into action (Obama and his red-lines for example).
ReplyDeleteDrake, I'd say the key difference is that this time it is a major NBC capability we're talking about, something the US simply would not let be lost to terrorists. I'd suggest that if they stocks became vulnerable, or were utilised, the response would be much more dramatic than that taken in Libya. I'd guess at heavy bombing of the stockpiles, followed by forces on the ground to secure them. For and NBC threat I doubt there would be as much objection to major force and boots on the ground as there were in Libya to MANPADS.
Then why are we not there yet? It's like Iran. If there is such a clear and present danger, why are we not already involved? Why are we waiting for the current government to fall? Once you do that, you can't just magically gte people in place once chaos stars. You would think they would have learned this from Iraq.
DeleteThe opposition is linked with Al-queda (just like in Libya). This means they see and know what the Syrian opposition sees and knows.
Drake, behind the scenes all kind of planning will have been going on for this type of situation, assets being prepared and Intelligence gathered.
ReplyDeleteI would suggest there are several reasons for not rushing in headlong. One it breaks international law, something the US seems to have forgotten despite the international backlash from Iraq. Remember both Russia and China currently are against intervention in the Security Council.
If the weapons are used or are threatened by rebel forces (who you are quite correct are largely linked to Al-Qaeda or other less than pleasant Islamic conservatives, as in Libya and Egypt) then that would provide a much better position for the USA to move from in terms of international politics and relations. At present the weapons are still secure and an operation to recover them, whilst possible and feasible, would still be a very large undertaking and not one to commit to lightly and without immediate need (a lesson learned from Iraq I would suggest).
Finally waiting for the government to fall, or at least be even more weakened, would possibly make any operation easier, in terms of degraded military capability (such as that massive air defence network in place making Libya or Iraq 2003 look like Child's play), and also greater general confusion as a government is coming down, rather than one that is currently organised and determined to continue fighting. It could also weaken through attrition elements of the rebels that may well be linked to dangerous factions that may seek to intervene in a US operation to capture weapons for themselves.
Iran is whole other kettle of fish. It is covered by several of the points above related to Syria, except on top of that you have an even more determined foe, who has been preparing and training to prevent EXACTLY that type of operation from occurring, as well as having the ability to cause extreme pain and annoyance to the West in general by attempting to close the Hormuz straits (in itself will be a big operation for the US and NATO to stop and clear of mines once enacted).
As well as that is the fact that any such strike on Iran has been suggested will only delay acquiring nuclear capability, rather than preventing use of chemical weapons altogether as in Syria (which are unlikely to be able to create more at this time). Any strike on Iran may not even prevent immediate continuation of the program depending on how successful US/Israeli weapons are at penetrating the deep hardened facilities.
Finally on Iran, attacking it may well force the country closer together in its hatred of Israel and the USA and, at least for a while, close some fairly bitter divisions in Iran that could well become useful for regime change in the future. Where as in Syria the opposition would actively welcome the US into an operation as it would, by default, help the opposition topple the government forces, and maybe create a brief chance to acquire a substantial number of conventional or a small amount chemical weapons (if the first strike doesn't go perfectly).
I recall the MOPP gear of the 70's.....A rain poncho and Gas mask M-17A1.
ReplyDeleteIf the victim in the video was exposed to chemical weapons the doctors would also be in some kind of MOPP gear just to treat him.
ReplyDeleteSarin would be affecting more than his breathing with muscle spasm's making him literally vibrate on the table, Mustard would have him showing chemical burns on his skin.
Could be he was gassed but it also could be just Propaganda.
Why do we care?
ReplyDeleteThe rebels arent our friends.
The Best Case scenario for us is.
Assad wipes out the rebels (who dont like us, see Benghazi) and their civilian support base, expending all his chemical weapons.
Assad loses his backers, and a more friendly tyrant forces him out.
We have a stable Syria, without AlQueda ish tendancies, with a friendly ruler, who has no chemical weapons.
Win Win Win Win Win