Question.
With almost the entirety of Northern Africa engaged in combat...with wars continuing in the Middle East...are we seeing what amounts to a low grade regional war?
Additionally are we seeing the French replace the US as the leader in this effort and since they are a member should the effort in Mali be supported by NATO?
Can a case be made that the Jihadist have left Afghanistan and are engaging Western Forces in Africa and if that's the case should we accelerate/redeploy forces to the conflict in Mali?
I just don't know.
With almost the entirety of Northern Africa engaged in combat...with wars continuing in the Middle East...are we seeing what amounts to a low grade regional war?
Additionally are we seeing the French replace the US as the leader in this effort and since they are a member should the effort in Mali be supported by NATO?
Can a case be made that the Jihadist have left Afghanistan and are engaging Western Forces in Africa and if that's the case should we accelerate/redeploy forces to the conflict in Mali?
I just don't know.
The US tried to get the French out of Africa, or at least discourage them, back in the 90's. The US paid attention to Rwanda and Zaire/Congo revolution and I think decided that having the French involved in the region wasn't a bad idea.
ReplyDeletePrior to Clinton having the Pentagon start training African militaries in an attempt to develop partners it could work with, I don't think the US had any involvement in the area.
I think we are ceding to the French something that it has experience with and rightly so, but damn, you'd think we could shake a leg and send over a few C-17s and some drones especially after we helped train the mutineers.
did you see the pics of the dead French Commando? we need to provide any material assistance they ask for. but one thing people don't realize.
ReplyDeletethe French can be brutal. when they decide to say fuck it, everyone better watch out. the Foreign Legion can still be brutes and it won't be pretty when the French govt lets them off the chain.
Afghanistan is Afghanistan. No matter what, it'll be a remote corner of the world no one gives much of a damn about for very long. But I could see the North of Africa being unified in some way with the Sahel as a Jihadi highway from the Atlantic to the Red Sea.
ReplyDeleteyou just came up with the nightmare scenario. every country in the middle east to southern europe would be endangered. the EU would have no choice but to get involved. i think that's where this is heading. Libya was a warm up but this north africa affair will engulf the entire eu.
DeleteActually I'd note the US trying to get France and the UK out of Africa in the entire post war era and underline the Suez Crisis. France has traditionally used force in it's former colonies whenever it thought proper and pretty much doesn't care about NATO or the UN once they decide they need to act. The fact that Algeria is cooperating with France over Mali is actually stunning given the history.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure there's much chance of North Africa going fundamentalist with the exception of Egypt.
Anyway, even if we don't go look at a true low-scale war, the French do play a big live-training exercise and commercial stunt : they are sending many modern systems in the fight : Rafale fighters, VBCI IFV from the 92ème Régiment d’Infanterie, CAESAR SP artillery from the 68e Régiment d’Artillerie d’Afrique, along with 120 mm mortars and light reconnaissance drones, also AMX-10 RCR (upgraded version of the old AMX-10RC) from the Régiment d’Infanterie Chars de Marine, Tigres helicopters,... Currently the main equipement not yet stated for deployement is the VAB v3, due to the fact that quite a few of them are deployed in Afghanistan.
ReplyDeleteAdd to this the old classics (Mirage 2000, Mirage F1CR, Gazelle helicopters, standard VAB, P4 jeep, etc...) and you get quite a show of French equipements on the world's televisions, at a time when India is already talking of expending the 120 Rafale order currently being negotiated to 193 aircraft, and the negociations with the Emirates relauched for the sale of 60 other Rafales...