video via Navy Recognition...
Don't get me wrong.
I know that madmen with a nuclear weapon is dangerous...but then I look at Pakistan and N. Korea...
I look at their conventional forces and all I can think is that tiny Singapore would put up a MUCH more credible defense than Iran ever could....and then I think of all the multi-national drills that are being held to defeat this strawman enemy and I can't help but wonder if we're not being played.
I FULLY SUPPORT Israel...but they've taken out bigger and badder solo...so exactly what is the game here. Why is Iran being held up as a clear and present danger to the world?
Don't get me wrong.
I know that madmen with a nuclear weapon is dangerous...but then I look at Pakistan and N. Korea...
I look at their conventional forces and all I can think is that tiny Singapore would put up a MUCH more credible defense than Iran ever could....and then I think of all the multi-national drills that are being held to defeat this strawman enemy and I can't help but wonder if we're not being played.
I FULLY SUPPORT Israel...but they've taken out bigger and badder solo...so exactly what is the game here. Why is Iran being held up as a clear and present danger to the world?
For me Iran is a big threat, but they're a big threat like Iraq was, not like China is. I feel like everyone puts Iran in the same boat as China and that's just insulting to the Chinese.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese are a legit threat in every respect. They have the man-power without a doubt and at this point I think they've stolen enough American tech that they're a threat in just about every other respect as well. They're the new USSR without a doubt.
Iran, though, for me is just like a giant semi-legit version of al Qaeda. It's not that they're going to be this world beater as much as they're going to go even more bat-shit crazy and throw a single nuke at Europe before the rest of the world (ie the US) storms in and topples them.
There are two arguments (at least that I have gleaned):
ReplyDeleteOne, that they can potentially launch nukes at Europe or us.
Two, by getting nukes they start an arms race in the Middle East.
The second seems more likely, but a lot of this obsession with Iran seems very similar to the tunnel vision that led us to occupy Iraq.
Give the Israeli's the green light, or better yet, have them reimburse us to take care of it.
1. Apocalypse needed to...
ReplyDelete2. Bring forth the twelfth Mahdi from the well.....
3. To rule the world as the only true Islamic religion...
5. And just backwards and stupid enough to believe it.
I would say the straits of Hormuz being closed is the biggest and most major threat to the world by Iran.
In a stand up fight Iran couldn't whip the Frenches asses without major help.
Nope, they aren't.
ReplyDeleteAre they dangerous? Sure. Do they talk a lot of trash? Yes
Do they wish to see their Islamic Revolution turned into irradiated glass? Nope
The worst kept secret in the world is that the Israeli's have nukes. And they just ordered another sub from the Krauts and so will have two AIP subs, not to mention the Jericho IIs &IIIs and their air force. They can nuke anybody that they think needs a fusion sun tan.
While the Iranian's seem insane, much as the Chinese did in the late 60's and early 70's, they are still 'rational actors'. They are not dumb enough to risk the lives of tens of millions of Iranians and dozens of cities/Holy sites being vaporized by Israel or the US. Are the Iranians crazy enough to attempt to destroy 6-7 million Israelis in exchange for 50-60 million Iranians?
No. That isnt what the Israeli's are worried about now.
At this point there is only one 'Muslim' bomb souce, Pakistan. The danger is when there are multiple potential sources for 'Muslim' bombs that would ensure a bomb smuggled in or near a Tel Aviv or New York, etc., where it could be used with plausible deniability. That creates doubt for anyone wanting to retaliate and that doubt insulates the source nation of any such direct blame.
Can a nuclear weapons radioactivity be traced according to certain atomic footprints? If for instance a nuclear bomb was detonated, could you tell if the uranium was mined from New Mexico, or russia, or Iran, etc? If there is, then that issue of trace-ability is moot.
The assumption that Iran is a rational actor, in Western terms, is extremely dangerous. Either they believe the tenets of their fundamentalist religion or they don't. If one wants to assume they do not then one has to support such an assertion that flies in the 30 year history of the regime.
ReplyDeleteIran is the world's largest supporter of terror organizations. They are directly trying to undermine many of their neighbors. Iran exports both Islamist and Shia fundamentalism. Iran is a vicious police state.
A nuclear Iran would be insulated against outside pressure, become more expansionist towards it's neighbors, be emboldened in supporting terror organizations, and this entirely leaves aside any chance it actually uses it's nuclear weapons. The resulting nuclear arms race in the Middle East alone is enough of a reason to stop Iran.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE would go nuclear in response. Pakistan is already in danger of turning fundamentalist. The world really can't afford a nuclear armed fundamentalist regime.
All of this aside the direct military threat posed by Iran is not great. The last time they made a lot of noise in the Gulf the USN took out their navy in half a day. See Operation Praying Mantis. That was before we reactivated the 5th Fleet. The biggest threat Iran poses is through naval mines, we just led a 12 day mine warfare exercise involving 30+ nations, and we'd love the provocation of them mining to take out their naval forces and escalate to their nuclear program and regime.
Iran isn't a big threat to close the Gulf today. They are a threat if nuclear armed and the chance of an air campaign to take out their related military capability has to be balanced against them using nukes.