Austerity is now for the DoD.

via National Defense.

Disruptions in budget planning will continue for some time, he said. The 2011 Budget Control Act mandates $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade. That would lower the Pentagon's budget top line by $55 billion per year between 2014 and 2021. The Obama administration is now working on a revised fiscal year 2014 request that would reflect those lower funding caps. That means possibly canceling programs, reducing force size and contemplating other unpleasant decisions, said Kendall. “O&M relief could come at the expense of investment,” he said. “We are dealing with a very difficult execution environment.” As far as the long-term budget goes, he added, “We are going to have to present some tough choices to the president and to the Congress.”

Read the entire article.

Programs will be canceled.

You can bet that the F-35 will be on many peoples list but its protected by virtue of it being a multinational program AND the Chinese haven't helped by fielding not one but two and possibly a third stealth fighter.

What does that mean?

It means the ground forces are about to take a hair cut.  Specifically that means that you're about to see a reduction in forces that will make what happened after Vietnam look like a walk in the park.

Quite honestly the Marine Corps will shed personnel like there is no tomorrow, Combat Arms Marines will suffer the biggest cuts and a decade plus of combat experience will be lost in a couple of years.

I don't think it will be enough to save some needed Marine Corps programs.

I've said it once I'll say it again.  A procurement bottleneck, coupled with a lack of urgency when it comes to vehicle programming, mixed with unrealistic requirements will end up bending the Marine Corps over the desk.

My predictions....

*JLTV.  Canceled.  Neither the Army or Marine Corps have been talking about the importance of this program.
*MPC.   Canceled.  This one annoys me.  Its ready to go now.  We just need to pick the winner.  Unfortunately, the choice will be between the ACV and the MPC and the ACV will win that fight.
*ACV.  Canceled.  This is a misnomer.  The Marine Corps will continue the program but it will be either in the form of a new vehicle based on the old form but called new.  Or a new vehicle that performs to the same specifications.  It'll have improved mine resistance and probably a new bolt on armor package once it reaches shore but it won't come close to the EFV's performance.  It won't even have half its water speed.
*CH-53K.  Delayed further.  This program will be pushed out.  Sikorsky should be pissed but in reality this is another case of the Marine Corps not acting with any sense of urgency.  This helicopter should have been in service by now.
*Personnel.  All those statements about going down to 180k are out the window now.  I've always said it would be 150K and I'm almost ready to bet valuable body parts that it will.

The funny thing (as if any of this is funny) is that the President has succeeded in driving a wedge between civilians and law enforcement and now we're gonna see the fruits of that same effort extended to the military.

The Marine Corps once had a fierce advocacy group that would rally to defend it and its programs.

My sense is that it's lost much of that support.

Expect the Marine Corps to be ravaged right along with the Army, Navy and Air Force.

The Joint Chiefs are  the proud parents of a hollow military.