Wow. I've been expecting plenty of bush wars in Africa. I've been waiting for a mistake to happen between China and one of its neighbors causing a few airplanes to be shot down or a ship sunk. But the real flashpoint, especially after the US leaves Afghanistan will be the issues between Pakistan and India.
Check this out.
If we're lucky all we'll see is heavy mechanized combat, mixed with plenty of sea and air action.
If we're unlucky we'll see a nuclear exchange and terrorist making off with Pakistani nukes.
Nightmare scenario? India and Pakistan go for each others throats and China makes a move to capture disputed Indian territory.
This will get ugly. Bet on it.
Check this out.
The attack on an Indian Army patrol in January, in which one soldier was beheaded, was carried out by Special Services Group of Pakistan Army, Defence Minister A K Antony told the Rajya Sabha today.In a written reply to a question in the House, he also said that intelligence reports have indicated that Chief of Lashkar-e-Taiba Hafiz Sayeed had visited the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir prior to the attack.“On January 8, 2013 the Special Services Group of Pakistan Army executed an attack on an Indian Army patrol in which two Indian soldiers were killed. One soldier was beheaded in the attack,” he said.The Defence Minister further informed the House that inputs analysed by Military Intelligence indicate that,”terrorists affiliated to LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammad were involved in the attack”.“Intelligence reports also indicate that Pakistani terrorists and Chief of LeT Hafiz Sayeed was reported to have visited the LoC areas prior to the attack,” Antony said. In reply to a separate question whether government has announced to consider to award the two soldiers on Republic Day, who were killed in the incident, Antony said, “As on date, no citation/ recommendations pertaining to the specific incident have been received.”Read the entire article here.
If we're lucky all we'll see is heavy mechanized combat, mixed with plenty of sea and air action.
If we're unlucky we'll see a nuclear exchange and terrorist making off with Pakistani nukes.
Nightmare scenario? India and Pakistan go for each others throats and China makes a move to capture disputed Indian territory.
This will get ugly. Bet on it.
I'll take that bet. Remember Mombasa? India didn't do a thing in retaliation despite the obvious trail leading back to Pakistan's senior officials.
ReplyDeleteyeah but the US and its fight in Afghanistan has been the calming force. remove that and you have a no holds barred fight for influence on the disputed border and in AFghanistan itself. we'll see but i won't charge you much if i'm right.
DeleteI would be surprised if India goes first. It could be said Pakistan is basically where it's been for the last ... forty years and still sees India as THE ENEMY. But I think India, corruption and inefficiency aside, has moved on from indentifying itself soley by its relationship vis-a-vis Pakistan. India is looking at overseas bases, a manned space program, a seat on the Security Council. India wants to be a Great Power. I think India embroiling itself in a pointless war with Pakistan over whatever is the last think it would want to do.
ReplyDeletewell like change said mumbai was basically an act of war. additionally the beheading of soldiers is just as outrageous and Pakistan has been involved in these types of activities for years.
Deleteadditionally their security and military has been penetrated by terrorists.
Pakistan will go one step too far after we pull out and the missiles will fly.
Solomon is right about the US withdrawal from the region, it has the potential to be as messy as the fall of Saigon with the wholesale slaughter of those associated with the old regime and the US. On the other hand, India has far more to lose than Pakistan in any nuclear exchange so they will have a very high tolerance for Pakistani provocations. The fact India tolerated the Pakistani backed and supported Taliban proves they won't overreact once the US leaves. But sooner or later nukes are going to be used in this world now that the US is in steep financial and military decline. Solomon is probably right, Pakistan vs India is as likely as not.
DeleteEvery decade or two Pakistan starts a war with India and loses. The last one was in 1999. They're about due for another. Pakistan just isn't a rationale nation. They're biggest security threat is internal and their biggest overall threat is economic; however, they believe their biggest threat is India. India knows their biggest threat is China and yet is frustrated Pakistan just doesn't want to grow up.
ReplyDeleteIf Sol's right my money is on India. They seem like the obvious choice.
ReplyDeleteinteresting. i was thinking about who would win in such a fight.
Deletethe answer is the same whether its a one on one fight or a nation state war.
the most committed wins. if that's truly the measure then all bets are off and it'll depend on so many things that we really couldn't make a decent guess.