I still say that Asia is a powder keg and that we're going to see a war there sooner rather than later. It might be one of design or it might be an accident between two aggressive Commanders but with the amount of gear that's being bought, something's got to give.
The latest buyer of high tech armor? Indonesia.
The above pics are of the Leopard 2 Revolution. I don't know how good the armor kit is, but the basic Leopard 2 is formidable and this adds to it. Indonesia didn't stop there. Besides buying 61 Revolutions they're also purchasing 42 Leopard 2A4's.
Instead we're seeing old rivalries coming back to the fore and the entire region fearing land grabs by China.
At most five years before we see a regional war. I personally expect a flair up between China and India on their mutual border or between Japan and China over islands.
Time will tell. But everyone is gearing up for the coming battles.
NOTE: One thing that is surprising to me. We're talking Asia yet armored forces are all getting heavier and heavier. I don't know of many plains that can be maneuvered on outside of Australia and most of the fighting will take place in crowded cities, the slums that surround them and jungles. I can't think of "pure tank country" in the region.
It's all about gearing up to match your neighbors. Procurement budgets are skyrocketing in that region but it all looks like a castle of cards. China rocks the boat from all sides it seems because they are contained between Japan, India and Russia, with their respective allies and rivals. It could get nasty really fast down there.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting thoughts Solomon. Just about everything I see on Chinese military blogs seems to be heavy armored stuff, even their newish air assault/amphibious stuff seems to be heavy armored, not that much light,mobile stuff. I think the regional powers don't see the terrorist as a big a threat or feel that police/para military can deal with it. It is an arms race where face is important but yeah, war is going to happen between some of these powers, it's almost inevitable.
ReplyDeleteBetween a Leopard 2 and a M1 Abrams, I pick the Leopard 2. That thing just looks bad ass killer.... I like the fact that the Germans keep updating it compared to most Western countries that have been slow to update their MBT's.
All their heavies don't mean a jack if they can't control the sky. Also, how the hell they plan to power project their armored units throughout the region, with what? Last time I checked, US military is not eager to fight a ground campaign against PLA. The reasons are obvious. We should pay more attentions to the real threats: 5th gen fighters, long range missiles, counter space and cyber warfare. The stuffs that can really hurt us.
ReplyDeleteReally it all comes down to air dominance. We sold over 1000 M1s to Egypt. When the brotherhood finally shows its true color and decides to match beyond sainai with US made armor, how long do you think they can last before being blown into smithereens?
This may sound like a silly question, but do we export the same M1 to Egypt that our guys use? Or do they get a downgraded version without all the bells and whistles?
DeleteEgypt probably got watered down version but that’s not my point. What difference it makes from the air? To the pilot sitting inside F-16 cockpit, you see a target on the ground, let it be a latest Leopard2A7+ or a ww2 era T-34, you drop a missile or laser guided bomb, end of story.
DeleteOh I hear you on that, and agree. I was wondering if the shit hit the fan and we had a tank battle with Egypt would we have a qualitative advantage in hardware. I would think the US Army is better trained than the Egyptians but other than that would we have any advantages.
DeleteThis is more theoretical I guess. There's prob no longer such a thing as a tank vs tank battle due to helicopters, A-10's, etc.
Aircraft can't always fly and helicopters can be extremely vulnerable to ground fire. On the first case note Gulf War One where the ground war often saw air non available due to weather. On the 2nd note the 11th Attack Helo Regiment at Karbala in 2003. The Iraqi's in a planned ambush mostly using cannon, RPG's and small arms shot up the regiment so badly it was out of action for a month. 28 of 29 AH-64's took serious damage with an average of 15 to 20 bullet holes with a high of 29. After this the attack helo's had some fairly serious restrictions placed upon their use.
ReplyDeletehttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uOBZEjftYck/UXigZhxsUZI/AAAAAAAAwp0/3GO-V33AuCc/s640/6685incim7677221.jpg
ReplyDeleteThis is Leopard 2 Next Generation.