Have you been keeping up with the talk about a no fly zone in Syria?
If you have then whats been talked about is almost shocking. I'm reading between the lines but it appears from my Command Chair in Camp SNAFU! that US military options are being shaped by the S-300 and fear of it.
Why do I say that?
I read earlier that they were discussing using F-16's from Jordanian airbases to enforce a zone that extended 25 miles into Syria. F-16's would fire their missiles from inside Jordan to destroy any aircraft violating that zone.
That was quickly knocked down as only an option. Later we heard that the Army would be sending Patriot Missile Batteries to join Marine units on the border. I found this to be particularly interesting because the USMC doesn't have organic anti-air except in the form of the aircraft that accompany the MEU. Hell it doesn't have organic anti-air even at the division level (I won't touch the MEB and MEF which I consider to be full scale warfare orgs).
But again, I'm off track. One missile system...not even the Russians most advanced...is keeping the allies (US and Western European forces) from mounting a vigorous no fly zone like we saw over Libya.
What happens when we face a real deal, 100% fully integrated air defense establishment over a country doing bad things?
The S-300 is a beast. The S-400/500 must be Monsters.
Remember a few weeks ago when the liberals said the Syrian air defenses were so advanced that they could not be penetrated? Within days the Israelis bombed multiple targets. What we are hearing is an abundance of caution. If we wanted to break into their air defenses we could.
ReplyDeleteThe Israeli's launched an airstrike. What we're talking about doing is creating a no fly zone. I'm no zoomie but in my minds eye thats an entirely different kettle of fish. Too much can go wrong. What happens if you can't fully degrade Syrian air defense? What happens if you have a smart commander that picks his spots like the Joker in Yugoslovia? What happens when they start shelling the safe zone with artillery thats beyond the reach of our tubes....do we go after it with air? Do we send in drones? Drones would get knocked down so fast it would be a waste and the USAF knows it. Do we send in cruise missiles? What happens when they get shot down?
DeleteGoing after one static target is alot easier than keeping a lid on a section of country without putting boots on the ground and establishing a complete no fly zone over all of it.
People who said those things didn't know what they were talking about.
DeleteThe Syrian defenses were thick but ancient. Think Iraq in 1991. They were, and until the S-300's get there, are depending on updated 60's and 70's vintage stuff. They have some Tunguska gun/missile systems but those are point-defense type.
We probably can knock the S-300's out and have trained for it. No one has openly fought those systems, or a Patriot battery for that matter, so a lot is going to be unknowns.
Israelis launched stand off missile attack ,S300 could engage planes deep inside Jordan and/or Israel and remember S300 is not a stand alone piece of gear it is normally protected by Sa 17 and SA22 systems that are potent in their own right. The point is that unlike Iraq and Yugoslavia flying above 10.000(most systems were short range) doesn't provide safety anymore how survivable these systems are was clearly demonstrated in Yugoslavia where radars were turning off and on and moving so much that few were hit.
ReplyDeleteyeah and although we don/t agree on much you nailed it here.
Deletewe're seeing something new and dangerous for the West.
our very way of war is being altered and no one is seeing it! air attacks are about to become extremely difficult. if someone actually makes a serious investment in these systems then you can forget about air attack, airborne insertion, heliborne insertion...everything requireing movement by air is going to be at a loss.
Another point to consider is that maybe the U.S. really doesn't want to get involved and leave the door open for another radical group to gain more power. Let's face it, if the political will was there then the COIN would be willing to accept some military losses. In this instance it's a really good excuse to hold off on any intervention while still claiming to be outraged at the crossed red lines.
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ReplyDeleteSyria is a different kettle of fish of course. Their overall military readiness given recent events will not be up to speed. But yes, as time goes on, I would worry about more capable actors in the coming years with this family of weapons system.
ReplyDeleteoh i would love to see an analysis of current US airpower against the S-400/500. no one will do it. i can't because i don't have the required knowledge....the powers that be won't because word might get out that current weapons philosophy won't work.
Deletesidenote,....your blog is killing comments. can't get any to post.
This is exactly why 4th gen systems (even upgraded ones ala F-15SE) are not the way to go. 1st world powers are not going to be the major issue, but 3rd world flareups that have bought 1st world tech.
ReplyDeleteWhat will be the Achilles heel of this whole operation is the Rules of Engagement dictated by the whiz kids in Washington D. C. applauded by the UN, denounced by the French and blamed on some minor Official in the administration if things go to manure, events will go to manure I have no doubt.
ReplyDeleteThe RoE will be Muslim approved and politically acceptable by everyone but the Grunts on the ground and the pilots and crews of the aviation assets flying that glorified firing squad target called a No-Fly Zone.
The fact US aircrews and Russian federation anti aircraft crews would be shooting at each other and not the proxy forces both sides support is scary enough but for one force to win over the other requires more than just flying and ducking shots. Suppression of AAA/AAM is the only way a no fly zone could be maintained.
So Far it's all just an exercise, Our leadership still has the option of just sailing away when the exercise ends.
The POTUS can shout out to the world, "Well, I went to Syria and organized the community and now I'm back!" and get another Nobel Peace prize.