If you're going to test a concept AND have troops in place to carry out directives from the President then the Chief of Staff of the Army either has a crystal ball or planning that is beyond perfect.
via Army.mil and Bob...
WASHINGTON (Army News Service, June 3, 2013) -- About 100 Soldiers from the 1st Armored Division are now in Jordan, within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, as part of an advance headquarters element that will pave the way for follow-on Soldiers in the June "Eager Lion" exercise there.The 1st Armored Division is in Jordan.
Maj. Gen. Sean B. MacFarland, the new commander of Fort Bliss, Texas, and the 1st Armored Division, or 1st AD, will himself go forward in a few weeks to meet up with his deputy, who is already in place, in order to participate in the exercise.
"It's an opportunity for us to develop mil-to-mil relationships with the Jordanian armed forces," MacFarland said. "The 1st Armored Division is regionally aligned with the U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, area of responsibility, or AOR, so building on our ability to operate and establish greater bonds of mutual trust with the Jordanians is a huge benefit for our troops who are going over there, and familiarizing ourselves with Jordan."
The exercise will involve about 8,000 personnel. About 5,000 of those will be U.S., and about 3,000 will be Jordanian.
The 1st AD is "regionally aligned" with CENTCOM, something the Army has recently started to push. A regional alignment flags Army units to prepare to go forward and support combatant commanders as they address mutual threats and interests with partners; build capabilities of partners so they can handle things themselves; and increase influence to have access if needed.
Regionally aligned forces can include Army capabilities in direct support of combatant commanders every day. They also include personnel and units assigned to a theater, U.S. Pacific Command and U.S. European Command have the bulk of these. Additionally, regionally aligned forces include those units in an "allocated" status, given to a combatant commander for a specific mission for a specific period of time and under his direct control.
The 26th MEU is in Jordan.
The Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group is off shore.
USAF assets in the form of F-16 squadrons are on the way.
Additionally allied forces are suppose to be participating in this exercise.
When you have this many forces in a region ready to go several things can happen. Either it can be something that you want because of a plan, or it can be forced action because of enemy activity.
Two words for you. If you're a commander then they're in all caps. Force Protection.
Hezbollah and the Iranians are our adversaries? This will not be good. Not because they're better than us. They're not. But they've practiced fighting combined arms organizations like ours when they go up against the Israeli's.
If that's a guide then we can count on one more thing planners might not be considering. Hezbollah likes to kidnap soldiers.
This is going to be anything but simple.
The USAF fast movers are there already:
ReplyDeletehttp://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-06-15/news/sns-rt-us-syria-crisis-usabre95e0h1-20130615_1_patriot-missiles-jordan-and-syria-assad
The force protection element is built already with the conventional units and can be augmented quickly.
I wonder who is coordinating with the local SF. The Jordanians are good and they have the home field advantage literally:
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/10/06/Jordan-sends-trainers-to-Afghanistan/UPI-51901286393752/
The same goes for the Turks. It will not make the media, but it is easy for JSOC, USA Activity and others to blend in with conventional forces and start reconnaissance on Hezbollah and IIRG. It will be tough to catch up, but eyes and ears have been on the AOR for a while.
the Jordanians Special Ops is trained to a high standard but i'm not aware of them doing anything operational against real deal enemies. protesters don't count and quite honestly Turks (and I'm cheering for that country to do well...i think they can have a real future if they get it together properly) Special Ops has been getting is butt handed to them by the PKK. they're good as far as training standard but they haven't been able to put a dent in that insurgency and have had to fall back on conventional units to help in the fight.
Deletei'm not a fan of SOCOM (and it probably has more to do with McRaven and AMos than with the actual guys) but the thing that has me typing hard is that this is where they can end up in a meat grinder because JSOC theater commander bites off alot more than he can chew and commits forces in a no win situation that is easily deciphered and our guys fly into a trap.
i just know Rangers and MARSOC are going to want to do a highwire act and jump into hell that no one can see coming and its gonna be a bad day all the way around.
The WH is gun shy about sending in the Rangers or MARSOC. The view is that America will not stand for another Iraq or Afghanistan. With the OBL hit, that is the preferred method. Smaller footprint = less chance of photo ops. The US could send USA SF OGAs a few years ago, but that did not happen. The Turks have been putting a lot of hurt on Kurdish activity, going after them and it is bearing fruit:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/will-kurds-make-it.aspx?pageID=449&nID=48127&NewsCatID=466
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/kurdwar/articles/20130519.aspx
There is a lot of coordination up there to avoid fratricide.
The neighborhood is freaking out about IIRG/Hez and IMHO will be a slow motion grind in the shadows. No gold stars for jump wing for the Rangers.
Conventional forces are for Jordanian stability and keep Israel on a leash.
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ReplyDeleteHere is a good article:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.the-american-interest.com/garfinkle/2013/06/14/talkin-syria-intervention-blues/
Commenter number five about keep Iran busy and commenter number six about the low grade Shia/Sunni sectarian war is spot on.
There are no public statements on what is America vital interest or policy, just sound bites. There is nothing about existential threats to American sovereignty in Syria. I do not think the Rangers or US conventional forces will be authorized to get into direct action against IIRG/Hezbollah, unless it is to self-protect.
Operational question: Are units on the ground in Jordan accompanied by Fox vehicles or their types and are US Forces in MOPP gear?
ReplyDeleteA barrage of chemical weapon's carried by missiles would hamper Ops if the Troops are prepared and in their MOPP if un prepared we could see a major defeat of US Forces in their canton's and fortification's. Something the left who hates the military would love to see.
Just saying, I don't believe the Haji's are stupid enough to shoot gas at US Forces BUT I keep in mind these are not normal people these are religious jihadi's on a mission from allah.
The more we get involved, the bigger support for isolationist policies in the 2014 and 2016 US elections.
ReplyDeleteWe have no business sending troops into that shithole. And by supporting the rebels we're stoking a fire that could very well spread to Jordan or Saudi Arabia. All those Sunnis that don't get zapped are going to go back home and if they don't like what they see, they'll start the same crap there.
As for the IRGC in Syria, I bet they will rotate in brigade-sized units just like we do. Based on how they've trained Hezbollah, they'll get some experience, debrief, introduce new methods/doctrine/training, then send rotate in a new brigade.
While Syria is hairy, it isn't IRGC that we should be concerned about, it's the pro-Assad militia, the National Defense Force, that the IRGC and Hezbollah have helped train. If you figure that every Syrian male has performed military service, then these militias are receiving more refresher and other specialized training.
ReplyDeleteMore enthusiastic than the army conscripts, getting better training, organizing themselves like the Iranian basij, relying on initiative, not slow C2 structures.
Some of the NDF are front-line forces available to 'surge' for an offensive, others are security forces that move in after the Army has taken a town and polices the area, freeing up the Syrian Army.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/robert-fisk/syria-assad-sends-his-feared-ghost-soldier-militia-squads-to-the-battlefront-29230199.html
http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/15616
http://www.iransview.com/irgc-style-corps-will-be-established-in-syria-says-top-iranian-military-commander/566/
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e98_1368915877
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21579055-fall-qusayr-boost-regime-far-decisive-turning-point
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?fromval=3&cid=18&frid=23&seccatid=20&eid=81769
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-05-11/world/39297570_1_urban-warfare-government-forces-rebels
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/robert-fisk/syria-assad-sends-his-feared-ghost-soldier-militia-squads-to-the-battlefront-29230199.html