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| Y-20 undergoing flight testing. |
I think they're wrong. Or at best we're seeing a hybrid strategy...a type of mixing between the old strategy of the USSR of keeping US reinforcements from reaching Europe and the US Joint Forces Command attempt at integrating Stryker Brigades, Airborne Units and Marine Forces into an effective expeditionary force.
Take for example the Type 81 LHD. China watcher Feng (of Information Dissemination) estimates that the Type 81 will be within 30-40 thousand tons and will rival the America class in carriage. That isn't a ship designed for anti-access operations. Consider the Y-20 at the top of the page. A heavy transport that should achieve high speed and heavy lift?
Take into account a turn by the Chinese Army to lighten it forces in the form of Wheeled Armored Fighting Vehicles. And even more than that, they seem to have settled on two types...a heavy (for Chinese forces...light by new Western standards) eight wheeled model and a light 6 wheeler. Why is this significant? Because it will give the Chinese armored protection across all terrain to be found in the Pacific. It also lightens the logistics burden because these families of armored vehicles are fully amphibious meaning that your Fire Support Gun, Artillery, Anti-Air, Engineer, Personnel Carrier, NBC Vehicle, Command etc...are all operating off the same supply chain, will not weigh down local bridges and have similar mobility.
All in all I think we're missing the boat on China's military intentions. Luckily our allies seem to be locked in and focused. Between India's new Strike Force on the Chinese border and Japan establishing diplomatic ties with any and everyone it can--while acquiring new abilities is telling.
Anti-Access my ass. China is going expeditionary.
Of course they are. Add to that their stolen LCAC design and purchase of Zubr class landing craft from the Russians. Taiwan is the goal baby. Then on to other "claims".
ReplyDeletei get the impression that they view Taiwan like they did Hong Kong. just a matter of time and it'll have independent status once its reintegrated. i'm personally watching middle eastern oil production.
Deletei think that will be the thing to set it off. the arab spring with all of its upheaval --- if it ever reaches Saudi Arabia will be a turning point. even if the Royal Family holds on you still might see oil disruptions which will make China nervous and ready to replace the loss goods. i see Spratly islands coming under pressure big time.
that scenario would make China do land grabs like crazy.
The anti-access prong of development us just to make the US hesitate while they scoop up islands. I have no doubt whatsoever that if the US doesn't get a President that owns a pair it's going to become a free for all for China in the South Pacific.
DeleteAnti access is a tactic rather than a strategy or even a goal.
ReplyDeleteChinas goal is the creation and control of a "greater east asian co-prosperity sphere", ComeCon and Warsaw Pact for east asia.
And yes, I use GEACPS knowing that Japan used it in WW2.
Chinas strategy, is to use economic, military and political bullying to force its neighbours into subservient roles within such an organisation.
Anti access, denying the US the ability to operate within the SCS is part of that, as is maintaining the ability to act themselves
If they can keep control, they will pick off one nation at a time, isolate them, wage economic war, sponsor insurgents and rebels, deploy peace keeper to "restore order"
You may not remember, but the Y-20 is seriously underpowered, with gas guzzling Soviet era engines. The Chinese can't seem to master jet engine technology. - not that I am complaining. You can steal technology, but you can't steal quality control. The BBC had a nice documentary on Rolls Royce jet engine production a couple of years ago. The production of a jet engine is art as well as science.
ReplyDeletepratt and whitney and GE are both building their most powerful engines in China now. my guess is that the only reason why the tech hasn't showed up on military aircraft is to keep the business awhile longer. they have the expertise and now the plans to get it done.
DeleteGoddamn globalization
Delete"Building" or "assembling"
DeleteTwo very different words.
Things like Jet Engine fan blades are fantastically expensive things to make, and I havent seen China rock up with sort of investment money.
China has the money to build that sort of metallurgy plant, but it looks at investment through a prism of job creation. Ten billion on an engine plant that employs a few hundred, or on furniture plants than employ a few hundred thousand.
Easy decision on there views.
The white-walls on that one AFV show a certain sense of style :)
ReplyDelete