Sunday, July 21, 2013

Asians are becoming worried. Say that the US and China are on a war footing.

Thanks for the article Kristoffer!!!


via The Nation (Thailand).
Both the Pentagon and the People's Liberation Army are building up their military strategies. It appears that a global war is in the making.
Saunders wrote that the Pentagon is proceeding with war preparations without oversight from the White House or Congress. This gives the impression that the Pentagon is operating as an independent state within the state. The Pentagon is relying on the AirSea Battle strategy, in which the US Army and Air Force will stand ready to support 320,000 military personnel in a simultaneous land and air attack against China in the event of a spillover war in the South China Sea or surrounding areas.
President Obama has spoken of a pivot to Asia, followed by the US Defence Department's plan to move most of the US naval capability to the Asia Pacific to counter the rise of China. We can feel that the US military, in spite of the turmoil in Syria, Egypt and the Middle East, is re-asserting its influence in the Asia-Pacific. The US and China are now engaging in a full-scale currency war. A physical war could be the inevitable course. A rise of China threatens the US dollar as the world's reserve currency and the US supremacy.
On China's side, we can assume that the Chinese leadership has ordered a full preparation for a war with the United States. China has secretly built up its military capability, with modern weapons and sophisticated technology. China said it is ready to develop an anti-AirSea Battle strategy. China's President Xi Jingping has urged the military to prepare for the war and to fight to win.
Read the whole thing here.

I've read Doug Saunders before.  He's a left leaning liberal with definite anti-military tendencies.

What should raise eyebrows is the fact that a Thailand paper re-printed the article.  His talk about the Pentagon acting without White House or Congressional oversight is pure fantasy, What isn't is the idea that the smaller Asian countries will get swept into this conflict.  I predicted that China would work hard to isolate these countries and attempt to get them to sit the war out...  I also expect China to do this by offering nicely packaged agreements that include aid, trade and development programs.  Whether it works or not is anyone's guess.  China appears to be in a demonstration period.  They're demonstrating to their neighbors how strong they are and "informing" them of possible points of friction.  Classic carrot and stick.

The real problem is that I can't see a competing approach from the US side.  Partnerships?  Painting a few schools and working with a nations armed forces?  In context it seems like really weak sauce.

This is gonna happen within five to ten years. Consider this the interwar period, similar to what we saw between WW1 and WW2.

Side note:  I think its time to start a build your military for the Pacific series.  What should a budget constrained Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines focus on when it comes to this looming conflict?