via Gulf News. (read the entire article here.)
The Philippines and Japan are both confronted by the increasing boldness of China, in similarly asserting its claim over several islands close in the South China Sea.A few things....
The Philippines had earlier said that it will abide to a peaceful resolution in the territorial dispute had already sought the help of the United Nations which formed a an arbitral tribunal in response. China has yet to make a similar move.
Aquino also took the opportunity to express gratitude to Japan for donating several patrol vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard.
“We thank the Japanese Government for helping enhance the capacity of the Philippine Coast Guard by building multi-role response vessels and by providing communication systems for their use,” he said.
* Why we aren't donating gear to the Philippine armed forces is beyond me. It seems like a no-brainer. Is China blocking such a move? I just don't get it.
* I've been so focused on the various border disputes and how the US is/isn't reacting to them and missed the fact that the nations under pressure will be seeking to establish their own ties with like minded allies.
* China has already jumped the shark. Either stuff is so serious inside the country that their rulers believe that outside distractions are necessary, or they've miscalculated. I think its a diversion. There is no profit in provoking almost every nation in the Pacific.
* Japan is gearing up in a hardcore way. How much more will it take before they decide that they must have nuclear weapons to help with all the bullies in the neighborhood? I have nothing to go on but it wouldn't surprise me if they had nukes already.
Considering the technological capabilities of Japan, getting a nuke should be pretty easy once politicians approve it. Not sure if the population is ready for it though.
ReplyDeleteThe Japanese have already squirreled away a massive amount of plutonium from their nuclear reactors. They could easily have nukes within a year of the order to proceed.
ReplyDeleteOff your first point, I assume that the US not donating gear is more political than anything else, for both the US and the Philippines. At the moment, maybe it's just not politically a good idea for the US to give and/or the Philippines to accept.
ReplyDeleteSecond point, this is actually something I've been hoping for for a long time. It's just been a question of when the Chinese threat would outweigh resentment against the Japanese. For the Philippines, I guess they've reached that point.
Third, communist or not, the Chinese are still the Chinese. Just like past regimes, the communists believe China naturally has a place in the world, a seat at the table. Its only now, in the last few decades, that China is regaining it's great power status. And the communists are acting accordingly. And yes, this goes for domestic consumption as well. Perhaps not as a diversion to anything specific. But just to legitimize the People's Republic as a regime worthy of China's greatness in the world.
Last, the only way I think Japan will ever have nukes of their own, in the near term, is if the US throws them under the bus. In the long term, I think Japan could get there on their own, when the living memories and reminders of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have completely died out.
I agree that we should be helping to arm the Philippines more, and Taiwan too. They must be worried to set aside the sort of resentment I could imagine they have for Japan, especially with all the revisionist/ignoring of WW2 history type stuff that pops out of Japan from time to time.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22519384
They really need to keep that guy quiet, about the only thing your average uninterested American "Citizen" can remember about Japan is that stupid "Pearl harbor" movie. Even without obnoxious things like were stated in that article I have a hard time seeing our current administration stand by an ally against China.
China is painting itself into a corner.
ReplyDeleteThe leadership has spent the last 60 years telling the people that they have been abused by Western Powers and it is only a conspiracy that keeps China taking its rightful place as a great power ruling their lost empire. What has happened is the average person now believes it. So you have a newly wealthy(isn) China where the average person has a love/hate relationship with the West and a desire to reestablish the Chinese empire in the East.
China is pushing hard on these issues because there are millions of middle class Chinese that want to see a dominant assertive China pushing back hard against it's one time oppressors.
That is the danger of blaming outsiders for internally created problems. Once you have enough wealth and power the people do not see through the b.s. instead they demand action.
Japan doesnt have nukes, but it could change that in a week.
ReplyDeleteBuilding a bomb is really easy.
Its being able to build the components to the tight tolerances thats hard.
Who doe perfect engineering better than Japan?
I wouldnt be remotely surprised if they already exist in kit form.
The difficult bit would be deploying them.
Big weapons need dedicated launch platforms.
But you could easily fit a W54 on an AMRAAM.
Nasty surprise to find the other guy has nuclear tipped air to air missiles, with a secondary ground attack function. Lob it that way and set it to detonate at 100ft.
A lot of nations use outside enemies to quell domestic trouble, the real problems occur when Colonel* (maybe major) equivalents believe they can and should win.
Do Chinas colonels think they can win?
Do they think they should?
*Generally speaking, if a General, a Captain and a Colonel all say different things, soldiers do what the colonel says.
Heh, you didn't have a couple of my colonels back in the day
ReplyDelete