Thanks Bob for the info! I had forgotten these studies.
Time to add another log on the fire with regards to whether or not we're building a parity force instead of one that is superior to all potential opponents.
I remember reading this study by Rand which studied a potential war with China over Taiwan. The results of the study was rather chilling. Their analysis revealed that Taiwan would be lost before the US could even respond militarily. Quite honestly if Benghazi is any indication then it would be a fait accompli before they even made the decision to respond!
But if you actually look at things as they are today (not as we wish them to be) then the situation is actually much much worse. The USAF is closing squadrons and casing their colors. The Navy is going to have fewer aircraft carriers and is also losing squadrons. The US Army and Marine Corps will also be smaller.
The point is this. Even if China only modernizes it forces and does not enlarge them, the numerical advantage that they enjoy will still grow. The problem for the US is that not only is it cutting its forces while China is expanding, but that China is becoming extremely aggressive in its dealings with its neighbors. China and India are involved in an ongoing border dispute that has flared off and on for several months. A story on the latest border incursion by the Chinese can be read here.
If you read Chinese websites you'll make note of the nationalistic fever that sweeps that country. If you study the region you'll note the hatred that stretches back centuries between these ancient countries.
A nationalistic China, with centuries old claims on land, mixed with an economy that is getting an evolutionary boost by western companies seeking to take advantage of cheap labor and you have a country that is experiencing the US version of manifest destiny.
They are arming up, they will continue to seek technological equality (and in some cases superiority---look at their hacking efforts), will maintain their numerical superiority and when the times comes they will strike.
Update: I found this article while doing a sweep through the internet. You can read it here.
The Chinese J-10 is looking like to be an export to South American and African countries that can't afford Modern Western or Russian Hardware.
ReplyDeleteFrom wikipedia-«J-10A can not be exported because it uses AL-31FN engine. So far, only the PAF has signed a contract making it the only export contract for the J-10. This is partly because of the strong relationship between Pakistan and China as well as the looming uncertainty of uninterrupted supply of F-16s from Lockheed Martin.»
DeleteUntil China does their one engine it will not be exported...
This is a good thing,because the specs on this fighter are very good...i have to wonder about its avionics,but if they are as good as its performance western pilots are in trouble
What about the JF-17? I hear rumors that Argentina is looking to co-produce the JF-17 and possibly looking at the JF-17 as a replacement for their Mirage III and Mirage 5.
DeleteI have heard that to...it is bad news for the UK.
DeleteWhile much less capable than the Eurofighter , the brits only have 4 of those in the Falklands...with the retirement of their fixed wing aircraft from their aircraft carriers and with the JSF still 10 years away this could be a disaster...
Its a great aircraft for a poor country like Argentine and it can be bought in large numbers...it can also use western weapons.
Not too sure Argentina can afford JF-17.
DeleteAlthough China and Argentina has been getting closer diplomatically, their military is in such a state and funds unavailable that such a type like the JF-17 seems just beyond their reach for the time being - unless a big trade deal is settled (which is likely).
The more likely replacement for the Argentina FAA (air force) is either ex Spanish Mirage F1's (which are being actively marketed to them) or ex French Mirage 2000's. A more logical progression.
Who knows, but even if a contract was signed today, it would take years for them to work up - take a detailed look at their forces. Our islands are quite safe, for now.
An aggressive China cuts both ways. Granted, they become more of a threat. The flip side to that is a total nullification of their soft power efforts covering the last decade. Asia is quickly arming itself in response. When looking at an expansionist and overtly aggressive China, one must keep in mind that it is not just the United States in this fight. Japan is reacting, as is Vietnam. Many other nations are sprinting to not only update their armed forces, by in many cases upgrade and enlarge. China can easily find itself isolated.
ReplyDeleteWhat's 'soft power'? Why not 'fluffy power'?
DeleteChina has money. Everything else is bullshit.
It's about time that we get our fiscal houses in order.