Thanks Bob for the info! I had forgotten these studies.
Time to add another log on the fire with regards to whether or not we're building a parity force instead of one that is superior to all potential opponents.
I remember reading this study by Rand which studied a potential war with China over Taiwan. The results of the study was rather chilling. Their analysis revealed that Taiwan would be lost before the US could even respond militarily. Quite honestly if Benghazi is any indication then it would be a fait accompli before they even made the decision to respond!
But if you actually look at things as they are today (not as we wish them to be) then the situation is actually much much worse. The USAF is closing squadrons and casing their colors. The Navy is going to have fewer aircraft carriers and is also losing squadrons. The US Army and Marine Corps will also be smaller.
The point is this. Even if China only modernizes it forces and does not enlarge them, the numerical advantage that they enjoy will still grow. The problem for the US is that not only is it cutting its forces while China is expanding, but that China is becoming extremely aggressive in its dealings with its neighbors. China and India are involved in an ongoing border dispute that has flared off and on for several months. A story on the latest border incursion by the Chinese can be read here.
If you read Chinese websites you'll make note of the nationalistic fever that sweeps that country. If you study the region you'll note the hatred that stretches back centuries between these ancient countries.
A nationalistic China, with centuries old claims on land, mixed with an economy that is getting an evolutionary boost by western companies seeking to take advantage of cheap labor and you have a country that is experiencing the US version of manifest destiny.
They are arming up, they will continue to seek technological equality (and in some cases superiority---look at their hacking efforts), will maintain their numerical superiority and when the times comes they will strike.
Update: I found this article while doing a sweep through the internet. You can read it here.
