Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Time to stick a fork in a common misnomer. The USMC needs the F-35. UPDATE:

Note:  This post was prompted by this comment from Lane...
Essentially what the USN "knows" is that instead of being on a procurement holiday like the USAF and USMC it has actually been continually purchasing fighter planes the past couple decades. Thus the majority of it's fighter aircraft do not require immediate replacement. The USN has options and can live without the F-35C. Certainly the F-35C brings more capability to the table than continued purchases of F/A-18's but it also brings far greater operating costs, as NAVAIR leaked some time ago, and thus the trade offs in acquiring the F-35C are not cut and dried compared to other customers.
This is so far from the truth it hurts.

The USMC bought British Harriers.
via DefenseTech.
Yup, you read that correctly. With the help of spare parts scavenged from Britain’s old GR9 Harriers that the Marine Corps just bought from the UK, the Marines could keep their AV-8B Harrier jump jets flying until 2030. Yes, the Harriers could serve alongside, F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, and whatever jet is selected as the Navy’s Unmanned Carrier-Launched Surveillance and Strike jet. Remember, the F-35B short-takeoff and vertical landing version of the JSF was originally supposed to start replacing the Marines’ Harriers and F/A-18 Hornets by oh about now. You all know what’s happened to that plan. The AV-8B entered service with the Marines in the mid-1980s.
Naval Air Systems Command has done a structural analysis of the Harriers’ airframes and concluded that the jets will be good, with plenty of maintenance, to fly through 2030, said Rear Adm. Donald Gaddis, the Navy’s program executive officer for tactical aviation during the Navy League’s annual Sea, Air, Space conference in National Harbor, Md.
This takes care of the issue with getting fast jets to the MEUs.  It also takes care of Marine Corps ground support missions.  We have planes available that are fully STOVL that can be available until 2030 at least.  And when NAVAIR says that, you can pretty much bank on it.  That gives us another 16 years that we can develop a viable STOVL replacement.  If we follow the NAVY lead and it relies on IRST and doesn't have to be biased toward stealth operations then a supersonic, STOVL airframe, loaded down with long range IRST missiles can be the war winning platform for our MEU's in the pacific.

F/A-18 offered at bargain price. 
via CBC
The Super Hornet currently sells for about $55 million US apiece; the Pentagon expects the F-35 to cost twice as much — about $110 million. But only 20 per cent of the cost of owning a fighter fleet is the actual sticker price of the planes. Eighty per cent is the operating cost — what it takes to keep them flying. That means everything from pilots and fuel to maintenance and spares.
For the cost of replacing half the projected F-35's with Super Hornets I can get everyone of the MPCs, ACVs, JLTVs and CH-53Ks that we could hope for and still have money left over to buy some other much needed gear.  And that's if the 110 million dollar price tag actually flows to the Marine Corps buy and not to the foreign customers that come to the program later.

I posted this to say one thing.

We can wait and get a Super Harrier from scratch that does everything we need.

We can do the jamming mission by buying Growlers.

We can do our carrier mission by buying Super Hornets.

The only reason why we're stuck to the F-35 is because we insist on being stuck.

An airplane does not make the Marine Corps.  The Infantry does.  Every Marine is an Infantryman, not a technician working on a flight line.  So why are we cutting Infantry Battalions instead of biting the bullet, marching up to the Pentagon and telling the powers that be that one airplane will not gobble up the Marine Corps?

UPDATE:
Somehow, we all missed it.  The AV-8B is already in the process of replacing two seat F/A-18D's.  This from Defense Tech.
Britain has agreed to sell all of its 74 decommissioned Harrier jump jets, along with engines and spare parts, to the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps — a move expected to help the Marines operate Harriers into the mid-2020s and provide extra planes to replace aging two-seat F-18D Hornet strike fighters.
Somehow in the rush of the news that the Marines were getting extra Harriers, buried was the fact that they would not only provide a buffer for the Harrier but a replacement for older Hornets. 

Side Note:  One thing keeps popping up that causes concern.  Operating costs.  If we're having to swallow a huge bill to buy the airplane and then have to pay crazy costs to keep it running then what the fuck over?  If upkeep becomes prohibitive then this should be an automatic no-go.  The EFV was canceled for less issues than the F-35 has.  Enough time has passed where there should be no more questions about this airplane.  Either its going to work or it isn't.  I cannot remember a program that has been allowed to drag on this long.


14 comments :

  1. Nice to hear the idea of a Super Harrier floated. If the old plans for a Harrier upgrade with slightly larger air frame were to be dusted off and joined with new engine and weapons tech, they could probably get a plane with at least low end supersonic performance and more payload off the ground before the f-35b is ready to roll. If that were to happen you would probably see a lot of our partners in the F-35 project cut back or cancel their orders in favor of a more affordable CAS and Air Defense platform.

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    1. we'll get a better platform. take bits from the F-35 and stick them on a newly built Super Harrier and life is good.

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  2. I wonder if the budget hawks are strong enough to overwhelm the F-35 mafia in Congress.

    I would like nothing better than to put a bullet into the F-35's temple and be done with it. Lockheed Martin needs a slap upside the head as do the services for trying to foist this turkey on us.

    The helmet doesn't work, the back-up helmet doesn't work and the logistic/maintenance software doesn't work. They've lowered the performance expectations at least twice.

    I hope China did steal the plans for this thing because maybe they can waste tens of billions trying to make it work, too.

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  3. Sol maybe you should have stated clearly what wasn't truthful? Your citation of something written in Defense Tech doesn't make it factual. The Corps is not going to put into service any of the ex UK Harriers as they're being used for parts. While it's possible in theory to develop a new aircraft to replace the AV-8B by 2030 I'd suggest that's never going to happen; furthermore, relying on a non existent program to refute reality is problematic at best.

    I do entirely agree with you that the Corps put itself in this position by deciding it wanted an all STOVL tactical air force. At this point, however, the odds of getting a different STOVL aircraft than the F-35B is zero. If you want to suggest the Corps give up on STOVL and replaces all the F/A-18's and AV-8B's with F/A-18E/F's, reverse the decision to retire the EW squadrons and purchase new EA-18G's, etc., it might be an argument worth having. The trouble is it should have happened 10 years ago.

    To argue the Corps isn't all in on the F-35 simply isn't reasonable. Nothing could be more clear. Describing non politically acceptable decisions as options isn't really describing an option. DOD is a political animal. With so much riding on the F-35 the Corps is not going to get permission to give up on the F-35 and everyone knows that. It's way past too late. The Corps will get the F-35 and much will be sacrificed to pay for it. If this wasn't clear 5 years ago it really ought to have been. Moreover, over a decade ago the Corps decided to bet the farm on one new aircraft to replace everything. That was, is, and will remain the actual problem.

    We didn't spend all that money on the F-35B for the Corps to be allowed to change it's mind after screaming how essential the aircraft was all these years. Going with the F/A-18E/F/G and replacing the AV-8B with some new attack (non strike fighter) was a decision that needed to be made before committing to the F-35B.

    People can talk about cutting the B or C version of the F-35 all day but it's not happening. The F-35 was made too big to fail for a number of reasons and making every service take a bite was how it was done. If you honestly believe there's any chance whatsoever of changing dance partners at this point (walking out to the dance floor) then you've clearly not been paying attention.

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    1. yeah. i believe it can be delayed or killed. watch for a couple of things. stuff going sideways in Syria or the Pacific and Sequestration. readiness will not be sacrificed to prop up an overbudget project. the future is cloudy and the budget is now the driver.

      everyone wants out from under the cloud of the F-35 and everyone is sending signals that its time to bail.

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  4. Lane Makes sense, If you won't listen to me at least listen to him.

    "The Super Hornet currently sells for about $55 million US apiece"

    Bullshit the FY 2012 Fly away with government furnished equipment is 66.9 million for the US:

    http://cdainstitute.blogspot.com/2013/01/replacing-cf18-part-i-fa-18e-super.html

    Its way more for Canada which is one more reason the CBC article is bullshit, but I know you aren't the type who reads beyond headlines so I will leave it at that.

    "I posted this to say one thing.

    We can wait and get a Super Harrier from scratch that does everything we need."

    We can do the jamming mission by buying Growlers.

    We can do our carrier mission by buying Super Hornets."

    That's 3 things. speaking of 3 things vs 1-- How much would your plan save again?

    A common platform produces a common support and sustainment base. By necking down to one type of aircraft we eliminate a threefold redundancy in manpower, operating materiel, support services, training, maintenance competencies, technical systems management, tools, and aircraft upgrades. For example:

    Direct military manpower will be reduced by 30%; approximately 340 officers and 2600 enlisted.
    Within the Naval Aviation Enterprise we will reduce the technical management requirements the systems requiring support by 60%.
    Peculiar Support Equipment will be reduced by 60%; down from 1,400 to 400 line items.
    Simulators and training support systems will be reduced by 80%; five different training systems will neck down to one.
    Electronic Attack WRA’s will be reduced by 40% and replaced with easier to support state of the art digital electronics.
    The Performance Based Logistics construct will nearly eliminate macro and micro avionics repair, and intermediate propulsion support functions.
    Airborne Armament Equipment (AAE) will be reduced by over 80% with the incorporation of a multi-use bomb rack.
    Compared to historical parametrics we expect our overall O&S costs to decrease by 30%.

    http://www.sldinfo.com/the-projected-impact-of-f-35b-on-usmc-operational-costs/


    have you even bothered to basic number crunching, or could we just say that the USMC could buy F-22s until the Cylon Raiders come on line and save serious dollars?

    Everyday you come up with some new plan, and you still don't know what the hell you are talking about when it comes to aviation and certainly not costs and training and capability. I'm embarrassed for you. Hilarious to see the turn you have taken on the F-35 compared to the last 2 years.

    Please Sol before you post one more thing. Actually roll your sleeves up, stop being lazy, stop reading press releases, and actually find out how DoD and Navy/Marine budgets and funding actually work.

    The F-35's cost is not what is preventing you from getting what you want.





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    1. YES THE F-35 IS!!!! if the plane is not at the apex of the USAF's and USMC's problems then tell me what is!!! we have a procurement budget that the Commandant says is predicated on getting the F-35 first. if the F-35 is delayed (or killed) then the next item moves up (the ACV or the MPC).

      shut your yap and you show me where i'm wrong. i am more than tired of your wanting me to prove the F-35 is justifiable at this price point. it isn't.

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  5. "why are we cutting Infantry Battalions"

    Because we are going back to pre GWot level?

    "instead of biting the bullet, marching up to the Pentagon and telling the powers that be that one airplane will not gobble up the Marine Corps?"

    Have you even looked and seen how much of the USMC budget the F-35 actually takes up? the F-35 is only "gobbling up" the USMC in your brain, Sol.

    "The EFV was canceled for less issues than the F-35 has."

    Think real hard and see if you can find any differences between the 2 programs, and who is contributing to them.

    "Enough time has passed where there should be no more questions about this airplane. Either its going to work or it isn't."

    According to this blog until just recently its awesome.

    "I cannot remember a program that has been allowed to drag on this long."

    The EFV, Osprey, Missile Defense, just to name a few.

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    1. the EFV, the Osprey and Missile Defense are all small frys compared to the F-35. if those could be killed for their relatively small sins than we should hack up the F-35 and serve it to the hogs.

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  6. This guy says we need it:

    http://snafu-solomon.blogspot.com/2013/03/awesome-rebuttal-on-f-35s-woes.html

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    1. DUDE! IF YOUR PLAN ISN'T GOING TO WORK YOU CHANGE YOUR PLAN!!! If you get more information and your preconceived notions have been proven false then you change!

      i make no apologies, NONE! they promised. they failed to deliver. i say we adjust accordingly. i HAVE been talking about delaying the airplane but quite honestly i'm going to chew on this and a change to calling for an outright cancellation is not beyond the realm of possibilities.

      ITS ABOUT THE BUDGET. ITS ABOUT ONE PLATFORM DOOMING THE ENTIRE DOD AND FORCING THE USAF AND THE USMC TO FORGO EVERYTHING IN PURSUIT OF ONE AIRPLANE!!!!

      that is unsat. we need armor.

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  7. "We can wait and get a Super Harrier from scratch that does everything we need. "

    No you can't. It will NEVER operate off a gator.

    "We can do the jamming mission by buying Growlers."

    Doing that anyway.

    "We can do our carrier mission by buying Super Hornets."

    Nope. CVNs already have missions. It's not like they're tied up at the pier collecting dust. If you pull them off their current missions to support a perceived need for new AAVs you'll just short somebody else. Oh, and the numbers of CVNs are coming down too.

    "The only reason why we're stuck to the F-35 is because we insist on being stuck."

    Uh, no. It's because it's the best way forward. Period. Any other option shorts somebody somewhere in a BIG way. Putting off the replacement of the LVTP-7 is a much better plan than giving up 11 flight decks.

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  8. Since the USN will not let Harriers on Big Deck carriers, what land based F-18Ds will the Harriers replace?

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    1. the Marine Corps uses most of its 18D's as fast facs if i remember correctly. that would be the ones that were talked about.

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