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A discussion I had with a buddy pointed me to a pretty disturbing fact (well...maybe not fact because the numbers are hard to nail down but it seems pretty clear).
The Chinese have regional naval superiority over the US in the Pacific.
Consider these few facts.
* The Chinese don't have worldwide responsibilities so their naval forces are focused on that one ocean.
* The Chinese have embarked on a massive ship building program. New ships that match or nearly match US vessels.
* Our vaunted naval aviation force is blunted because the Chinese navy will operate under the umbrella of land based air.
* The Chinese have a large and varied number of high speed anti-ship missiles mounted on everything from Fast Missile Attack Boats, to aircraft to Frigates and Destroyers.
As things stand now, the Chinese have over 80 Frigates and Destroyers in service. Many of those ships are Type 052C/D, Type 056 Corvettes and Type 054A Frigates. Compare that to the numerous Perry Class Frigates and LCS coming online (supposedly numbering 50 in class) and stack them against the number of Type 22 Missile Boats and you have a recipe for the US Navy not being able to effectively deal with the Chinese Navy alone.
I won't even begin to touch on how the Marine Corps or Army would respond to a move against the Chinese if they decided to take Taiwan.
We could only watch and protest.
If a few of our enemies either coordinated actions or took advantage of a move initiated by one of them then we'd be in a hurt locker world wide.
I didn't see it coming but the decline of the US militarily has already begun and is further along than anyone wants to admit.
NOTE: A statement was made that our sub force would be able to effectively destroy any advantage the Chinese have in surface ships. I beg to differ. Not only do the Chinese work hard on their Anti-Sub efforts using land based airplanes and ship based helicopters but they also have a pretty effective force of their own.
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| Note that Chinese subs are taking on a distinctly western style flavor. It appears that the old Russian styling has been abandoned to follow the British/US example. |
The Chinese have a pretty effective diesel electric sub force that is rapidly modernizing. They're moving to a mixed fleet of nuclear and conventional subs that can give us headaches. This from the Daily Mail...from back in the day...
When the U.S. Navy deploys a battle fleet on exercises, it takes the security of its aircraft carriers very seriously indeed.This occurred in 2007.
At least a dozen warships provide a physical guard while the technical wizardry of the world's only military superpower offers an invisible shield to detect and deter any intruders.
That is the theory. Or, rather, was the theory.
American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board.
By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.
According to senior Nato officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy.
The Americans had no idea China's fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat.
One Nato figure said the effect was "as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik" - a reference to the Soviet Union's first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age.
The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.
The lone Chinese vessel slipped past at least a dozen other American warships which were supposed to protect the carrier from hostile aircraft or submarines.
And the rest of the costly defensive screen, which usually includes at least two U.S. submarines, was also apparently unable to detect it.
According to the Nato source, the encounter has forced a serious re-think of American and Nato naval strategy as commanders reconsider the level of threat from potentially hostile Chinese submarines.
It also led to tense diplomatic exchanges, with shaken American diplomats demanding to know why the submarine was "shadowing" the U.S. fleet while Beijing pleaded ignorance and dismissed the affair as coincidence.
Analysts believe Beijing was sending a message to America and the West demonstrating its rapidly-growing military capability to threaten foreign powers which try to interfere in its "backyard".
The People's Liberation Army Navy's submarine fleet includes at least two nuclear-missile launching vessels.
Its 13 Song Class submarines are extremely quiet and difficult to detect when running on electric motors.
Commodore Stephen Saunders, editor of Jane's Fighting Ships, and a former Royal Navy anti-submarine specialist, said the U.S. had paid relatively little attention to this form of warfare since the end of the Cold War.
He said: "It was certainly a wake-up call for the Americans.
"It would tie in with what we see the Chinese trying to do, which appears to be to deter the Americans from interfering or operating in their backyard, particularly in relation to Taiwan."
In January China carried a successful missile test, shooting down a satellite in orbit for the first time.
Our Carriers are protected by at least one nuclear sub and several destroyers.
Yet somehow a Chinese sub appeared in the middle of the fleet. What was being said about our subs sweeping the seas of the Chinese again?
You forgot to count our submarines.
ReplyDeletesame issues apply. take the fleet of subs. divide them in half and then count the number of subs that they have. i still see us as being down.
DeleteThey do outnumber us but I do not think they have near the quality of euipment or personnel.
DeleteHonestly my money is on the US Navy's submarines putting most of China's fancy new fleet permanently underwater in short order. Even a half dozen attack subs would send China's fleet scurrying back to their harbors.
are you so sure? the Chinese operate a few diesel subs and they're working hard to get their anti-sub house in order. additionally while i'm talking about regional superiority, they can make moves to gain overwhelming local superiority that would negate any advantage that our sub fleet could bring.
Deletei didn't like where the discussion took us but when we looked at it without passion, we came to the conclusion that China is the new big boss in the Pacific.
additionally i think the Pentagon has war gamed it out and came to the same conclusion. that's why we're seeing all the partnership missions.
we can't handle them one on one anymore. the Pentagon knows it, China knows it, our allies know it and i believe it.
Honestly i have little to base my submarine knowledge on other than a couple fairly brief conversations with Navy personnel, but every one of them stated with complete confidence that our subs and torps are the deadliest things in the ocean. They all assured me that old joke of "their are only two types of ships in the ocean, subs and targets" is completely true.
Deletetime to do a quick dive into that then (see what i did there???) :))
Deletehaha
DeleteWhen i saw a picture of a MK48 literally cutting a destroyer in 2 pieces i became a believer.
Wow you got that up between my replies.
DeleteBut that still does not keep our subs out. What about a naval standoff? American carriers running laps in the middle of the pacific, our blue water home, and the chinese sitting in their ports because their carrier they just spend a decade building is now a diving attraction?
i'm just of the opinion that we have to careful. when an enemy is as strong as we are, is as advanced as we are then we're seeing something new. we fought Germany in WW2 and they were technologically advanced but we had numerical superiority. we fought the Japanese in WW2 and we had technological parity but they lacked numbers. we fought Korea and China (and some say the Soviet Union) in Korea but that ended in a stalemate. we had technological equivalence.
Deleteif history is a guide we need either numbers, technological superiority or we're faced with a stalemate at best.
we're lining ourselves up for a loss if China continues with its technological advancements coupled with our reduction in numbers.
thats what history tells us anyway.
I seriously see this situation comparable to the British Grand Fleet and the German High Seas Fleet during the First World War. We have general superiority for the moment, but without a serious naval build up effort (much as the British did before the war), we will be looking at a peer competitor with naval equality or superiority. The Germans under Tirpitz developed their navy with the theory they could eventually equal the British regionally because the British had naval obligations world wide. The Germans hoped to defeat the British Navy in detail much as the Japanese had the Russian navy a decade before. The British only countered this strategy by consolidating their navy by treaty deals with Japan and America, and committing themselves to keeping naval superiority.
DeleteWhen the day of hostilities finally occurred, the British were able to blockade the Germans into the North Sea by distant blockade doctrines. That meant a 4 year stalemate with the British never fully able to use naval power projection of their day against the German coast easily. It is credit to the Royal Navy that they did achieve some marine raids against the Channel ports under German control and sea plane raids over Germany.
We face a similar situation with China now. We can box them into the 'first island' chain' as they call it, by using external lines of communications and hard hitting tactics as we did against the Japanese in the Pacific War. BUT such a strategy will take submarine superiority, air assets deployed over a wide periphery and the ability to power project into those maritime zones, followed by pushing into the close seas/littorials under Chinese control. That will take more forces than we have now. It will also only work as a strategy stretching over months if not years. The whole time the Chinese will be able to do what they want within that defensive sphere of theirs, till we crack it. That could easily end up with a conquest of Taiwan, a mauling of Japan, and a serious defeat of the minor powers in the area.
We are flat out in a world of hurt on this one. We need a different strategy than both the AirSea Battle and the Distance stand off offensive, and we need a retooled navy. I have no hope with the current leadership of the Navy, Marines, or Air Force, and even less when you consider this Administration.
you stated it much better than i ever could. the biggest problem is that NORMALCY BIAS is the king of the land. we've always been the big boys so some can't see that we have allowed our forces to deteriorate and to regain even equality with the Chinese will take a major national effort.
Deleteunfortunately your statement about the JCS and the President are spot on. Democrats have reclaimed the label soft on defense and its gonna take defense blogs and the public too long to finally figure that out.
What I would like to know is how do we stop our decline? Is there any way?
ReplyDeletei have no idea. it seems like we created the very monster thats going to destroy us and i don't see how we get out of its grip before it accomplishes the dirty deed.
DeleteThey can start by taking control of the asylum back from the inmates. Military purchases should be dictated by strategic need, not pork barrel politics. Weapons like the LCS and F-35 are products of lobbyists and back room government deals, not military strategists.
DeleteThe US economy needs to put value into actual work and creating things, instead of hedge-fund managers "creating" money out of thin air. It's a sad commentary when a job in manufacturing or the food industry is considered beneath most people and derided.
Quit sending all the jobs and money overseas. Quit squeezing the average middle-class worker for every penny while the ultra-rich get treated like royalty. Give people living in poverty the ability, and more importantly, a reason, to shoot for a higher standard of living.
Military service should be a door for a better life. Education, job skills, and the promise that your country will support you during and after your service. The current rumor of layoffs and the continuing shittiness of the DVA is nothing short of tragic.
So yeah... Build stuff, take it easy on the middle class, and support the troops. Shouldn't even have to be said, but there it is.
I'll start by spelling 'dooom' with three 'o's. According to the tenor across a range of threads here, it's about time to invest in the extra 'o' fer sure. Parallel to the dooom-news, that'll be some effective contribution.
ReplyDeleteits not about doom. its about looking at situations as they are. NOT AS WE WANT THEM TO BE! we're in a hole that probably came about because of people like you that refuse to take a solid look at situations and deal with the reality.
Deletei'll never forget the housing crash. people were being encouraged to buy houses the very week of the collapse! small houses at crazy prices. people that said hey...something is wrong here got shouted down and were told that they were missing the gravy train.
all i'm doing is telling you that it appears that something is wrong. why won't you refute my statement instead of labeling me as a doomsayer?
I guess, in this case, you need to count the japonese fleet... Maybe south corean fleet too...
ReplyDeleteAny aggressive movement from China, can unite these countries.
Agree ?
I honestly fear the South Koreans are going to sit out any confrontation with have with China, unless that confrontation centered around some crisis North Korea started attacking the South. I think if it comes to blows directly between us with China over something like Taiwan or the Phillipines, South Korea will play the neutral card and stay out of it.
Deleteagreed which is why the State Dept inactivity in the Pacific is so concerning to me. we need a NATO type organization there and we need mutual defense pacts. if China hits Taiwan you can bet that no one will come to their aid. same with Singapore. pretty much the same with all the individual countries.
Deleteand history backs up this view point. China thought it would whip the Vietnamese and even though the fighting lasted awhile, it was purely a China vs. Vietnam affair.
if the Chinese are smart they'll continu their diplomatic work and get things setup so that they can destroy these nations one by one.
The only thing that we could do is close of the coast of China. We could tell everyone that no ship will be allowed in or out of Chinese ports and our subs would shut it down.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that we'd be shutting down the world economy as well. Would the rest of the world give a shit over Taiwan to see their economies suffer? And they'd blame us, not China for said suffering to be sure. When their people are laid off and unemployed, they'll blame us for fighting with China over an 'internal Chinese' issue, which is exactly how China will portray it.
China's foreign aid and investments are getting to be very popular in places where we don't even think twice about: South America and Africa. At a time when we are cutting aid, the Chinese are increasing theirs. And all the natural resources they import come from places we don't value.
The Chinese don't have to do much except wait until we defeat ourselves with deficit spending and national debt to the point we can't afford a military big enough to challenge them. They just need to play the long game.
Considering our inability to divest from ruinous programs like LCS, F35 or our ability to reform/restructure our military, we are hosed. People still have not woken up to the Sequester or the fact that we cannot continue to do business as usual. The next decade is going to have the leanest defense spending our nation has faced, either in dollar amount OR in percentage of GNP, yet Lockheed Martin and Boeing are still thinking it's 2004, not almost 2014. Either we risk bankrupting the Lockheed Martins of the world or we bankrupt the nation, but we cannot continue spending as we have.
If we want to stay relevant, not as a peer competitor, but just relevant in terms being able to hurt a potential enemy to make them think long and hard before acting, then we need look at everything we do and reevaluate, top to bottom, front to back, side to side, what our priorities as a nation are, what a grand strategy looks like and the means by which we can achieve our goals.
If we don't do it NOW, we will see force cuts, smaller purchases of over-priced platforms and an inability to project anything more than a few BCTs or air wings. I promise you our allies like S.Korea, Japan, Phillipines, etc are looking at our contemplated force reductions and wondering if they can afford to resist China or if they are delaying the inevitable dominance of China in the next 50 years.
Once our allies start asking those questions and whether we can keep faith with our obligations, it is the beginning of the end.
I think people are deluding themselves that this downward spiral is a temporary thing, but it isn't. Once the Army drops below 400000, it will never be larger. Once we dip down to a 200-ship Navy, we will never see it larger again. Once the Air Force can no longer field 2500 fighters, it never will have than that again. Once the USMC is smaller than 120,000, it will never again be bigger. And the reason is by then the question won't be, "how do we increase the military back to the 2012 levels", it will be, "why do we need a military that large again"?
Isolationists like Ron Paul are becoming more popular and if our military shrinks to the levels being contemplated, the question will inevitably be, "why do we need a Navy with 200 ships, isn't 180 enough to protect America?", "Why do we need an Army of 350,000? We aren't going to invade anybody and why should we help out Taiwan or ROK or Japan?"
you want proof? The UK's military has been in constant decline for 60 years. It was barely able to project a couple of regiments at a time in Iraq and Afghanistan and it was one of the larger militaries in the world.
Once a nation accepts decline, it is irreversible.
SPOT ON!!!! but its more insidious than that. it appears that our nations leadership has accepted the fact that we're going to be a middle instead of super power.
DeleteNot just the political leadership, but defense contractors and the military leaders who haven't connected the dots.
DeleteWe haven't seen anyone in the military in a position of leadership give any serious consideration to concepts like F.I.S.T. (fast, inexpensive, simple and tiny weapons)OR the 80% solution that Gates talked about OR we need Ford, not Ferraris. They might appear in service periodicals for 'theoretical discussions' or in a blog some place, but where have a majority of Flag officers come out and embraced and nurtured these concepts?
I think too many of these fuckers think they can be patriotic AND still get away with bucking for a cushy defense contractor job by not advocating for real reform in acquisitions or structure. These fucking Courtney Massingales are ruining our military and our nation. They gots to go!
I saw this the other day:
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130819/DEFREG02/308190005/US-Giants-Skimp-Research-Development
now, does it sounds like they are trying to re-imagine the way they do business? Or innovate to keep the US competitive? Because to me it sounds like are hoovering up tax dollars for the short-term interests of the shareholders, the nation and taxpayers be damned. These fuckers gots to go.
If we want real reform, we have to fire the generals and admirals, then ban any future employment with defense contractors. It's a conflict of interest and it is crippling our nation.
Bush and Obama have so thoroughly botched the application of U.S. power that Americans have totally lost faith in any role for the U.S. abroad.
ReplyDeleteWhile we go around looking for new sand wars to get bogged down in, trying to buy the love of those who hate us, the Chinese consolidate gains.
Pretty much agree with Paralus comments.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the situation is so dire, why? Because we still have a lot of money, our defense budget is still in the $500 billion dollar range, the problem is we have politicians that are incompetent at best, corrupt idiots at worst. With the money we spend, we should still be able to have a dominant force but we keep wasting money with crap like LCS or never finish anything like so many of the army/marine ground vehicles.
Also, what really is the foreign policy/military policy of the USA? Who decided we have to be the police officer of the world? Why can't Japan or S Korea start spending more? If they are afraid of China, shouldn't they spend more on defense? What are our goals and presence around the world? The Chinese are doing crazy projects in South America or Africa that will pay huge dividends for them down the road, most of them have nothing to do with the military of those countries.....If we want to still have influence around the world, maybe we are doing it the wrong way by putting so much into our military.....my 2 cents.
i;m of the opinion that when it comes to talking defense budget with the Chinese you have to multiply whatever they tell you by about 20. the reason is simple. they have a low wage high skill workforce that can produce western products at a fraction of the normal cost. additionally they don't have the issue with providing costly wages and health insurance to their military, plus the retirement system is much less costly.
Deletelong story short. budget is no longer relevant and anyone that is using that as a yardstick is (in my opinion) missing the point. i'm not directing it at you but we (my buddy and i) hit on this and it didn't change a thing...if anything if you actually factor that into the equation then they're ahead and their is nothing we can do to close the gap.
There is the savings in what they pay workers and engineers. That won't change unless Chinese workers (ironic in a supposedly Commie China) start advocating for wages and benefits.
DeleteAnd the scary thing is the economy of scale. Even if money wasn't an issue, we don't have the industrial capacity any longer. If the PLAN and USN had a ship-building race, the Chinese could build two to three times as many corvettes, frigates, destroyers and FAC. And from what it looks like, they aren't neutered like LCS is.
There's no way we could build enough LCS or Arleigh Burkes to keep pace and even if we could, the LCS is fucking useless. It cannot engage in a ship-to-ship combat. It might in the future, but sure as shit can't now.
ALSO as an aside, have you noticed how many of our ships no longer carry Harpoons? Granted it needs to be replaced eventually, but what are we going to take out ships with?
How would things change if the U.S. was willing strike first using some 300kT nuclear weapons? Say, on major Chicomm bases, refineries, shipyards, with yields adjusted as necessary for the target. And say mine the Strait of Malacca and the Lombok Strait with help from Australia and Singapore.
ReplyDeletewe hit on that too in our talk about China. i don't think we have that option. the US has almost dearmed when it comes to nukes and the amount that we do have in stock pales in comparison to some of the reports that i've seen on Chinese nuclear weapons.
Deletewe can talk all day about only targeting military bases with nukes but the Chinese could do the same and suddenly Honolulu, San Diego, Norfolk, Tampa Bay, New Orleans...in other words major cities go bye bye and we're into a full scale nuclear war.
so you would have to take that card off the table. and even if you did want to play it then how do you handle a combined Russia, China nuclear strike on the US? if we struck China first i'm willing to bet Putin would hit us in soldiarity with that communist country.
I don't think we are that far apart when I bring up the budget. The problem is we have the money but we aren't getting any bang for our bucks! Yes, China spends a lot more than they declare and they probably don't have to pay their CEOs as much as we have to pay ours and yes, they also have downloaded a lot from USA/Europeans, that helps but this shouldn't hide the fact that they are using their RMB in a better fashion than us our dollars. Our budget is really bloated with lots of dead wood, lots of high ranking officers need to go, way to much real estate and lets try to make weapon systems that kind of come on time and on budget and we would be on parity with China but lets' get rid of stuff we don't need, never use or are gold plated because we can.
ReplyDeleteOur economy is still bigger and more attractive than China's. Nobody is immigrating to China to build a tech start-up because there's nothing to stop the Party from sidling up to you and saying, "Foreign Running Dog, we like your idea, sell it to us or we'll just steal it and setup a wholly Chinese company and rip off your intellectual property. Oh, a go back where you came from".
ReplyDeleteOur legal and financial system, not to mention our political system, is an open system that is ideal for start-ups. We need to attract, promote entrepreneurs, nurture small businesses and reboot our manufacturing sector. As long as we can do that, we can stay competitive with China.
But a good economy will do us nothing if the big defense contractors continue there bad business. We defeated Nazi Germany not because our tanks or planes were superior technologically, but because we could produce them on a scale where we overwhelmed them. I think the only way to show we mean business is to dump the LCS and F35. Until we start demanding FIST/'Ford, not Ferraris'/80% solutions, we're going to keep getting gold-plated trash.
Look at Software design and how the industry has embraced the OODA loop to develop new code. It's a model on product development that works. Look at Toyota's Kaizen. It works. What is Lockheed Martin's solution to a problem with the F35? Assign 1000 people, it's like the Red Army school of management. There is no way a company like that would survive if it didn't exist solely upon the largess of the American taxpayer. and then the fucker's can't even safeguard the data from the Chinese! It's treasonous neglect! Kelly Johnson is spinning in his grave.
And a bunch of mediocre Flag officers who are too timid to rock the acquisitions boat or won't look critically at the structure of the military because their service academy classmates need a place to pad their resume doesn't help. Anybody O-6 or above needs to be banned from defense contractor work AND then fire the Flag Officers. Thank you for your service, but we need new ideas and an organization that isn't beholden to brown-nosing, gatekeeping, misplaced loyalty or branch prejudices, etc.
I don't know if we can get it done. I have my doubts. Part of me thinks that the power-brokers and elite view the nation and its institutions as nothing more than a way to line their pockets and offshore their money in the Cayman islands while the rest of us are left with the bill. "I got mine and you saps are on your own"
The end game will come down to the subs and nuclear weapons. Used freely to destroy subs, surface warships, Marine amphibs and incoming aircraft and missiles.
ReplyDeleteAs soon as one side begins to lose that side will escalate to regional Air Sea battle with atomic weapons.
Which is why the US Navy should get SSK submarines to counter China's ever growing SSK fleet. A Chinese SSK can choke the US navy from entering littoral waters and having an SSK can counter them and even play at their own game. It would not surprise me if China starts selling SSK's to countries that want submarines.
ReplyDelete