Friday, August 23, 2013

F-35 costs plummet. Why now? Update!


Everyone has the news that F-35 costs have plummeted.

My simple question is why now?  Why are we seeing costs come crashing down now? Elements of Power blog has a story in which he details it quite nicely.  But the question of why now must be answered.  If this had been done 5 years ago then we'd be in a much better position.  You wouldn't see the entire defense budget getting mauled to pay for the plane.  You wouldn't have seen the USMC dump the Marine Personnel Carrier and the Amphibious Combat Vehicle.

You wouldn't see reports that the Pentagon is considering a plan to fire 6000 civilians WHEN sequestration continues next year.  I only have a few theories....

*  Lockheed Martin F-35 division are the greedy bastards that I thought them to be.
*  Lockheed Martin is scared shitless and are seeking to push this puppy across the finish line before the Congress wakes up to its costs (related to the first).
*  The Pentagon is finally pushing hard enough to force the issue.
*  All of the above.

If they're finally pushing the costs down then good...but to be honest I've always wondered how you predict operating costs and this has all the feel of pulling numbers out of your ass and acting as if they're true.

The point remains.

The F-35 is unaffordable.  Is costing us to sacrifice vital capabilities in other areas.  And this JCS will be known as the most ineffective in the history of our nation.

Its painfully obvious why the new numbers are out now.  Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon are putting the full press on to win the S. Korean order.

If they have to lie, spin, twist facts or steal they'll do it.  Fraud was involved in making the V-22 look like a champion and it appears that fraud will be allowed to make the F-35 win projects.

Read about the suddenly "vocal" S. Korean Air Force support for the F-35 here (note that in all the previous contests we have heard nothing from them on preference for a particular jet).

7 comments:

  1. Costs are coming down in two ways:
    1. LRIP to LRIP learning curve improvements
    2. Real data being used instead of assumed data from manipulated 4th gen data.

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  2. Because production is ramping up and actual, real world data is being used in cost projections.

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  3. Because the F-35 lost the South Korean contest...now LM and the US Gov want to ensure the world that all is fine...would not be susprised if in a political scandal the reported news from the FX3 would be reversed and in the end the JSF was sold to SK...

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    Replies
    1. thats my point but they don't get it. the fix is in. they're already pressuring the S. Koreans and they're trying to cultivate the idea that the F-35 is affordable in the US. its all about public relations.

      forget what the SecDef, Commandant of the Marines and Think Tank Analyst have said...its the F-35 or nothing.

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  4. LM & The JPO have been disputing the CAPE figures for YEARS for the very reasons David and & I have stated above. The plan to re-evaluate the lifetime O&S costs based on real values was announced last year and they said then that the report would come out in the fall of 2013.

    Guess what, it's the fall of 2013.

    This was not some knee-jerk reaction the the SK contest, but a preplanned report that stated what the JPO & LM have been claiming all along.

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  5. Sue it was...
    If the F-35 is selected ,this is wath happened
    http://youtu.be/W84DLa0CLNE

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