wow Doug, all 3 of those PAK-FAs are using engines 10 years out of date, have NEVER fired a weapon, and whose Radar's won't exist for another few years :)
The Russians will never be able to afford more than 100 of these
Fully capable F-35 IOC isn't even scheduled till when, 2018? The Russians have five years to get their weapons, engines and radars working in order to break even on IOC so they have a good shot.
Also the F-35 can barely break even for aerial agility and performance with the F-16 and how old is the F-100 design now? 10 year old engine designs are much less of a handicap when you're not saddled with the F-35's poor aerodynamics.
The Russians have their issues with the PAK-FA but if you are going to throw rocks about a program not being combat ready and being unaffordable, you better not be comparing it to the F-35.
Not sure were you're getting that Pak-Fa's engines are 10 years out of date. Also the testbeds have been flying with NIIP N050 AESA for a while now. And the latest test bed has NIIP side facing AESA radars. UOMZ 101KS IEOS have also been seen on the test beds.
Because of avionics being ready by 2015 the current Pak Fa program is being pushed into service earlier and has been basically split in two. Spec 1 Pak Fa which will be not that different from the test beds flying now. And which will be induced into RuAF in 2015/16. And Spec 2 Pak Fa which we'll see in 2018/19 when 2nd stage engines will be ready. That Pak fa besides the new engines may or may not have flat nozzles and other modifications along with most certainly updated avionics.
But unlike F35, PAKFA is as near as you get to a Private Venture and yes the engines are old but new ones are being tested and plane is designed with a lots of growth potential ,what growth potential does F35 have none whatsoever
So an engine that offers 33,000lbs of thrust (each), supercruise, and 3D vectored thrust is considered 10 years out of date?
What does that make the F-35's engine? Admittedly, it has a better thrust to weight ratio, but doesn't offer supercruise or vectored thrust (other than the STOVL).
The issues with the engines they are currently using on the PAK-FA are:
Specific Fuel consumption Maintenance schedule Reliability
Thrust Vectoring actually has little to do with the actual jet engine and is basically a nozzle attachment to the end of an engine. And for the most part, thrust vectoring is primarily used for airshow demonstrations. It has yet to prove any advantage in actual air combat.
And the current PAK-FA engine is not designed for supercruise, though like the F135 and F35 it is capable of limited supercruise.
And of course people look only at the Russian money. Unfortunately, Russia is piggybacking on the backs of the Indian economy too, which is one of the few regions in the world that is still going fairly stable in the economic crisis. This means that unless there is a case of gross mismanagement, they most likely have the funds to finish this.
With the F-35, the US did a bit of piggybacking with Europe. Unfortunately, Europe's economy is so tied in with the US that once the liquidity crisis and commodified bonds screwup hit, both regions went into the crapper economically.
It's no F-22, but assuming that conditions will remain the same forever is foolish. The US could afford 100 F-22s in 2007. One year later in 2008, it no longer could.
Seasons change.
Russia will rise once again, no country is down forever. Same with the US, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. All this in its own time. Faster if people have their heads screwed on straight, but this is governments we are talking about you know, how often do they have their heads on straight?
Russia has bigger problems on their hands. Their economy is almost entirely based on oil, which relies on a monopoly in eastern Europe. Their population is shrinking at such a fast rate because their economy and society has been in a state of misery for so long primarily due to their authoritative regime, all the smart people are fleeing the country for high paying jobs overseas.
Back to the Oil thing, Russias hold on Europe is crumbling as the US is flooding the market with cheap fracked shale gas, able to sell our energy at a much cheaper price than Russia. While Russia is losing business in 'safe' markets, its also failing to liberalize their own economy at home - everything is run very inefficiently because enterprise is mostly state owned, and corruption has kept it in the dungeon for years.
The Pak-FA may be cool, but they don't have the funds to afford the plane in any meaningful numbers to pose a threat. Their military and power is relegated to their nuke arsenal, besides they they can't even fund or maintain a professional army - proof lies int he WSJ article below:
Funds have nothing to do with the ability to produce weaponry in Russia, its still about sufficient number of workers, raw materials and government decision to have a good equipped army. But government is afraid of well equipped and trained army at home and for a good reason. Mostly all this "uber" weapons is just mockups or demonstration prototypes for foreign potential buyers.
While oil prices is high -- Russia don't have problems at all, all russian economy based on export of oil and other raw materials, and everyone, including USA is happy about it. Cut oil price in half for an half an year and total and absolutely corrupt Russia will blow up, only full shelves in stores with foods and trinkets ("mirrors and blankets") keep population from revolution.
Russia now is docile oil cow, it could be crushed within year by dropping oil prices in half, without even one dropped bomb. So all this UN council ramblings and "new"(i.e. soviet era projects from archives) weapons is just a fuss.
Odd, from the reports I read, it is mineral prices that have driven the resurgence in their armed forces. China taps Australia and Russia for raw materials, not oil. China taps their oil from the Gulf.
And what about India? The PAK is a co-project with them, so even if Russia bombs out financially, India can still carry the project to term.
Of course if you are just talking about equiping, you are right, the CIS air force isn't going to see much of these, but as a project, it will be completed.
And I won't count Russia out too soon. They are rebuilding quietly. Much too quietly in my opinion. If left alone too long, they have potential to blindside us.
Conversely, here's a vid of two F-35Cs flying straight and level and deploying their landing gear. (Hey, that cobra maneuver is overrated anyway!)
ReplyDeletehttp://youtu.be/8sqtigrDJJk
Cobra maneuver would probably stall the F35s engine and then it could demonstrate if its ejection seat is any good
Deletewow Doug, all 3 of those PAK-FAs are using engines 10 years out of date, have NEVER fired a weapon, and whose Radar's won't exist for another few years :)
ReplyDeleteThe Russians will never be able to afford more than 100 of these
Fully capable F-35 IOC isn't even scheduled till when, 2018? The Russians have five years to get their weapons, engines and radars working in order to break even on IOC so they have a good shot.
DeleteAlso the F-35 can barely break even for aerial agility and performance with the F-16 and how old is the F-100 design now? 10 year old engine designs are much less of a handicap when you're not saddled with the F-35's poor aerodynamics.
The Russians have their issues with the PAK-FA but if you are going to throw rocks about a program not being combat ready and being unaffordable, you better not be comparing it to the F-35.
Not sure were you're getting that Pak-Fa's engines are 10 years out of date. Also the testbeds have been flying with NIIP N050 AESA for a while now. And the latest test bed has NIIP side facing AESA radars. UOMZ 101KS IEOS have also been seen on the test beds.
DeleteBecause of avionics being ready by 2015 the current Pak Fa program is being pushed into service earlier and has been basically split in two. Spec 1 Pak Fa which will be not that different from the test beds flying now. And which will be induced into RuAF in 2015/16. And Spec 2 Pak Fa which we'll see in 2018/19 when 2nd stage engines will be ready. That Pak fa besides the new engines may or may not have flat nozzles and other modifications along with most certainly updated avionics.
But unlike F35, PAKFA is as near as you get to a Private Venture and yes the engines are old but new ones are being tested and plane is designed with a lots of growth potential ,what growth potential does F35 have none whatsoever
DeleteSo an engine that offers 33,000lbs of thrust (each), supercruise, and 3D vectored thrust is considered 10 years out of date?
DeleteWhat does that make the F-35's engine? Admittedly, it has a better thrust to weight ratio, but doesn't offer supercruise or vectored thrust (other than the STOVL).
The issues with the engines they are currently using on the PAK-FA are:
DeleteSpecific Fuel consumption
Maintenance schedule
Reliability
Thrust Vectoring actually has little to do with the actual jet engine and is basically a nozzle attachment to the end of an engine. And for the most part, thrust vectoring is primarily used for airshow demonstrations. It has yet to prove any advantage in actual air combat.
And the current PAK-FA engine is not designed for supercruise, though like the F135 and F35 it is capable of limited supercruise.
And of course people look only at the Russian money. Unfortunately, Russia is piggybacking on the backs of the Indian economy too, which is one of the few regions in the world that is still going fairly stable in the economic crisis. This means that unless there is a case of gross mismanagement, they most likely have the funds to finish this.
ReplyDeleteWith the F-35, the US did a bit of piggybacking with Europe. Unfortunately, Europe's economy is so tied in with the US that once the liquidity crisis and commodified bonds screwup hit, both regions went into the crapper economically.
It's no F-22, but assuming that conditions will remain the same forever is foolish. The US could afford 100 F-22s in 2007. One year later in 2008, it no longer could.
Seasons change.
Russia will rise once again, no country is down forever. Same with the US, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. All this in its own time. Faster if people have their heads screwed on straight, but this is governments we are talking about you know, how often do they have their heads on straight?
Russia has bigger problems on their hands. Their economy is almost entirely based on oil, which relies on a monopoly in eastern Europe. Their population is shrinking at such a fast rate because their economy and society has been in a state of misery for so long primarily due to their authoritative regime, all the smart people are fleeing the country for high paying jobs overseas.
DeleteBack to the Oil thing, Russias hold on Europe is crumbling as the US is flooding the market with cheap fracked shale gas, able to sell our energy at a much cheaper price than Russia. While Russia is losing business in 'safe' markets, its also failing to liberalize their own economy at home - everything is run very inefficiently because enterprise is mostly state owned, and corruption has kept it in the dungeon for years.
The Pak-FA may be cool, but they don't have the funds to afford the plane in any meaningful numbers to pose a threat. Their military and power is relegated to their nuke arsenal, besides they they can't even fund or maintain a professional army - proof lies int he WSJ article below:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703678404575636412726670020.html
Funds have nothing to do with the ability to produce weaponry in Russia, its still about sufficient number of workers, raw materials and government decision to have a good equipped army. But government is afraid of well equipped and trained army at home and for a good reason. Mostly all this "uber" weapons is just mockups or demonstration prototypes for foreign potential buyers.
DeleteWhile oil prices is high -- Russia don't have problems at all, all russian economy based on export of oil and other raw materials, and everyone, including USA is happy about it. Cut oil price in half for an half an year and total and absolutely corrupt Russia will blow up, only full shelves in stores with foods and trinkets ("mirrors and blankets") keep population from revolution.
Russia now is docile oil cow, it could be crushed within year by dropping oil prices in half, without even one dropped bomb. So all this UN council ramblings and "new"(i.e. soviet era projects from archives) weapons is just a fuss.
Odd, from the reports I read, it is mineral prices that have driven the resurgence in their armed forces. China taps Australia and Russia for raw materials, not oil. China taps their oil from the Gulf.
DeleteAnd what about India? The PAK is a co-project with them, so even if Russia bombs out financially, India can still carry the project to term.
Of course if you are just talking about equiping, you are right, the CIS air force isn't going to see much of these, but as a project, it will be completed.
And I won't count Russia out too soon. They are rebuilding quietly. Much too quietly in my opinion. If left alone too long, they have potential to blindside us.
Odd, because China produces 97% of the worlds REE's. I don't see how they rely on russia, only for oil and maybe some titanium.
Delete