The State Department has to get into the Pacific and develop some kind of regional defense pact. Having said that, I am pleased by some of the moves being made by the Philippine armed forces (I will point out that some of the decisions seem to be made more in fear than as a part of a plan to modernize their forces).
This is another one of those cases where SOCOM has rushed in and is providing advisors to fight insurgents in the hills while the rest of the country is focused on the real threat that the Chinese represent. What the Philippines needs isn't jungle fighters. They're almost breed in the countryside to be able to operate in that area. What they need are experts from our Surface Warfare, Anti-Sub, Aviation and Mechanized Infantry Community to show them how to deal with a modern force that is networked and operating in a combined arms fashion across Air-Land-Sea-UnderSea and Cyber.
If Hagel isn't lying about the effects of sequestration then this fall will tell us all we need to know about how things will play out in the Pacific.
Those that believe that a conventional war will not take place or rather could not take place are fooling themselves. We're radiating weakness from the highest parts of our defense establishment. Quite honestly if I was a Chinese or Iranian General I would simply wait till the fall to see if sequestration hits. If it does, wait until US ground forces have finished shedding all personnel and then strike in a coordinated effort on two sides of the world.
Our future "super small but high tech force" won't stand a chance.
The problem with The Philippine government, is that they don't have a national defense policy. As it stands, all they have is a policy where if china bullies them, they run crying to America for help. It's why they need to seriously learn and apply the concepts from Sweeden and Finland on their defense policy. Where they wear down an aggressor, instead of attempting to hold the attacking army on the frontier.
ReplyDeleteWhich is why Sweden and Finland build a military that wears down the aggressor instead of attacking them. Their by making it very hard for them to attack someone and making it very costly for them. Which is why the Philippine Military needs to come up with a National defense policy instead of relying on America. If china ever went to war with the Philippines, it would be a very lopsided war and China would clean out the philippine.
On top of that you have Military equipment that can't stand up to China and if a Shooting ware ever break out between China and the Philippines. It would be a very lopsided war where China would easily push the Philippines aside. You basically have nothing, and if china wanted to, they can choke, blockade and isolate the Philippines with their Submarine Force consisting of SSK's and SSN's. You clearly don't see why China has a military that can easily push you around, and if they wanted to, they park their new Aircraft carrier with their new J-15 fighters right off your EEZ and bully you guys around.
"In case of China, beg for help from US" IS the most sound Defence Policy the Philippines is going to have for quite some time. Too many reasons for that, but that's what it boils down to. But one of the bigger ones is that short of adopting North Korea's defense policy, there is no way we can outright defeat China. The best we could do is bleed them and hope the US and/or the UN don't abandon us.
DeleteI think Sweden and Finland also built their policy around being 'tripwires' - slow down the Soviet machine long enough for USA to throw it's whole weight. At least that's what I know (Apologies if I'm mistaken).
Switzerland's policy is quite good too. No deterrent like having to fight a whole country's population in their (mountainous) backyard.
The problem with the Philippines is that their defense is so weak that, they don't stand a chance with China. China would simply overwhelm them and knock them out with one swipe. If China wanted to, they can choke of the Philippines with their SSK's and SSN's in the same scenario that the Germans attempted to do with the British. All china has to do is choke them with their SSK's and SSN and the Philippines would be at the brink of starvation.
DeleteWhich is why for the Philippine's they need to take a good look at the defense policy of Sweden, Finland and Switzerland. With them, they may not be able to overwhelm their enemy, but they will make it very hard and costly for them to occupy that territory. Even the swedes have SSK's that can make it hard for any enemy to get to their shores. With China being the newest member of the Aircraft carrier club, it won't take long before they start sailing that around with their carrier battlegroup. Which by then, it will be too late for the Philippines to counter China's growing military.
Even Vietnam saw the writing on the wall, when China brought the ex-soviet carrier the Varyag, which they now call it the Liaoning L-16. They went to Russia and brought 6 Kilo class SSK's and upgraded their military because they fear China growing more bolder. It's why now your seeing a massive Asian Pacific Arms race, all because China has a New Aircraft carrier.
the difference is that in the Pacific the fight isn't over land per se but instead its over areas of water with dots of land. the spratly islands issue is always talked about with regard to oil and gas being discovered there. i think thats a second issue. the main issue is fishing rights.
ReplyDeletebut the point is that China doesn't have to land on the philippines in order to win. they just need to annex the Philippines claim on those islands and make it stick.
so the idea of fighting a war of attrition or even a guerilla war at sea is hard for me to imagine. and that is in essence the Swiss or Finnish model...to bleed the invaders once they cross the border and then to harass the supply lines until it becomes too hard for them to stay. you can't do that with an inferior Navy and islands being the target.
the Filipinos have far too corrupt a government to build up and sustain a large and modern enough military force to give a behemoth juggernaut like China any pause. Also, their common classes from which they could recruit a sizeable enough ground force to change China's mind are far too poor, far too backward, far too uneducated and far too detached from the ownership class to be able to serve on the level of western power. (why would any of them want to risk their lives for the property of the 1% who keep them in poverty for generations?)
ReplyDeleteThey're lucky to have the level of competence that they already see in their current military branches and personnel. I seriously doubt that they could even double the size of their current military branches without having to bring-in unfit illiterates with serious criminal infractions.
"I would rather have a country run like hell by Filipinos than a country run like heaven by the Americans", that's what the Philippine president during the US Commonwealth said. Change the "Americans" to any nationality and you get the idea of how most "poor, backward, uneducated, detached from the ownership class" thinks. Why would they risk their lives? Because at the end of the day, their pride would prevail and tell them they'd rather have Filipino overlords.
DeleteYou are very right in questioning Filipino competence, but are very mistaken if you assume that the average Filipino won't fight if the shooting actually starts .
thanks Mannibal. i had an almost visceral reaction to the idea that poor Filipino's wouldn't fight for their country. that's like saying poor Americans wouldn't fight for the US if we were invaded. quite honestly i have a serious problem with the way that many are approaching the discussion of how the Philippines would deal with the China threat. i point them out because they appear to be on the frontlines of the coming (in my opinion) conflict and what they do will affect (if we're actually able to build it) a coalition to fight the rising dragon.
Deletei personally have an issue with all the talk of poor, corrupt, backwards Fillipino military that many are constantly talking about. they're trying. they're working the problem and they're facing the threat.
if you want to actually throw some well deserved blame around, then aim it at us. the US and other Western countries allowed our companies to create this threat all because they were seeking to lower manpower costs. the fact that China is communist was ignored. the fact that they habitually violate their citizens civil rights was also ignored. the American people got cheap goods at cheap prices and ignored the real costs. now we can't help but understand that we de-industrialized our own country and at the same time gave an enemy a look at our best practices and technology.
Which is why If china wanted, China can unleash their SSN and SSK fleet to choke the Philippines. Even more is that the Philippines don't have a creditable National defense and what they have now, can easily be pushed over by any country if they wanted to.
ReplyDeleteNo need to go that far, Nicky. The Philippine economy is too far reliant of China. Nearly all of the Philippine's manufacturing supplies come from China. Look at the economy of the Philippines, nearly all the big business are owned by Chinese-born, Philippine-raised Filipinos. Now that's a start. How about the Filipino's themselves? The poor can be bought, just like Afgans tribes.
ReplyDeleteChina wants a war? No need. All China has to do is impose an embargo on all Philippine-bound ships from China and Hong Kong, kick out the Filipino workers in Hong Kong and Macau and you can send the Philippine economy to it's knees.
All is done without firing a single shot.
Yep, not mention, most of the Philippines agricultural exports go to China. China has flexed it's economic muscle in the past by putting Filipino ag imports in 'quarantine' due to concerns over pests, etc. All that food, rotting away and the Filipino export businesses go out of business quickly. Farmers, fisherman don't get paid, social unrest, etc.
DeleteFollow up the socio-economic turmoil with a campaign to destabilize the Philippines. Supply the guerrilla movements with unmarked, untraceable arms that could be landed by Chinese submarines. The PLA already owns arms factories, all they need to is run them without serial numbers, etc., or put North Korean or Burmese stamps on them, and they have plausible deniability. Suddenly the Philippine army is running around the islands, trying to put out fires instead of training for a war with China. The Philippine economy goes to crap, ever more of it's shrinking defense budget devoted to COIN in different areas on the island.
If China wanted to, they can pull the Economic war and Bankrupt the Philippines without firing a shot. The other option would be a blockade of Imports from the Philippines making life very hard to sell their economic goods to China. China doesn't have to flex it's military muscle, they can use Economic pressure as well.
Delete(Sol, this one AIN'T aimed at you.)
ReplyDeleteBesides, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) know that they can't maintain the PF by themselves. Spare parts are expensive and American-made military equipment are not made to last.
Give the Philippine Navy (PN) about 3 years and the ship will be spending most of it's time tied up.
The Filipinos are now eating a large humble pie. This is after the late President Cory Aquino kicked out the Americans off the Philippines. This is what we got when we elected a housewife who didn't understand how to run a country. Oh well, it's either her or Marcos.
In reality, the Armed Forces of the Philippines have no capability of maintaining any equipment that they intend to buy. Spare parts are expensive that, any equipment they buy will either be tied up at the pier or left on the ground. That's why I have advocated for them, to be simple and buy stuff from Russia. At least Russian equipment last better than most western nations. With Russian equipment, their easier to maintain.
ReplyDeleteI'll bet ya, give Philippine Navy (PN) about 4 years and the ship will be a pier queen
The problem with the Philippines is that they don't have a creditable national defense and can't sustain themselves without running and crying to the US for help. It's why The Philippines with their very tight budget are begging any country to give them hand me downs for national defense. They need to realize that, it's going to take them decades for them to build a creditable national defense and it's not going to happen overnight
Russian equipment will not be so easy and cheap to maintain in the Philippines now would it?
DeleteAs an analogy consider that Land Rover parts are relatively cheap in Malaysia, but are worth their weight in gold in the Philippines. Why? Because Malaysia, as a former British Colony, has a better established supply chain for those parts than the Philippines. Not to mention that mechanics there would be more used to fixing Land Rovers than Filipino mechanics. In the same vein, I hear that maintaining Mitsubishi cars in Europe/America is expensive and a PITA; while in the Philippines I could go into any reasonably sized town and find cheap parts and services for any Mitsubishi.
The Philippines is a former US Colony, and is surrounded by wealthy nations who use western equipment. Even disregarding the fact that a lot of those equipment are given the Philippines for free( how much cheaper can you get than free?), the materiel logistics and the technical expertise will be cheaper with western equipment. Also, Russian equipment being 'simpler' is something of a myth (see: autoloaders, the Hind as compared to its contemporaries the Huey and Cobra, and the ex-Soviet now Indian aircraft Carrier and all its technical problems)
And now not disregarding the fact that a lot of Philippine equipment and spare parts are hand me downs, if the AFP does us Russian equipment, who's going to donate parts for them? Who's going to supply the spare parts and ammunition for them in the event of war? I know! CHINA!
The problem with the Philippines, is that they want,want and want western Military equipment. They don't have the technicians or maintenance people to maintain those equipment. Which is why the Philippines don't have the industry to make and produce spare parts for the military gear.
DeleteThat's why with their limited budget, they simply need to go for Russia for their latest and greatest gear instead of the more expensive gear. Just look at western countries that operate Russian gear such as Peru and Brazil, they don't seem to have any problems and any problems are minor at best.
Nicky, you're funny. Your statements are so wrong I don't even knpw where to start.
Delete-How could russian equipment be cheaper to BUY when our western equipped neighbors are practically giving us their old equipment practically for FREE?
-peru looks like they have a mix of western and russian eqpt. And brazil looks like they have an almost fully western eqpt list. They don't seem to be as sold as you are to the idea of russian eqpt. And a bigger counterpoint to your russian eqptis cheaperand easier to maintain: INS Vikramaditya. Also, the m113 against btrs and bmps.
-guess what we have more of: technicians for western eqpt or technicians for russian eqpt?
The problem here is that the Philippines doesn't have the capability to maintain any hand me downs. It will wind up being either a hanger queen or Pier side queen. The hand me downs that their getting are not state of the art anymore. That's why if they are not technically up to date in terms of Military technology. They are simply going to have a huge learning curve and a hard time playing catch up.
DeleteThen it doesn't matter if it's russian or western tech. Simple truth of military hardware is that state of the art = bigger tech overhead than older eqpt.
DeleteIf anything the AFP would have less capability maintaining russian eqpt for the simple reason that Russian tech advisers would have to be paid while the westerners send for free (at least money wise).
Or are you one of those people who think that Russian eqpt can be maintained by back yard industries? Because anything older than an ak/rpg-7/rpd and that is a load of bollocks.
Let me blunt about this ...
DeleteAny nation don't trust the Philippine government and/or AFP with any military equipment. It's either too expensive to maintain or it's going to wind up in the hands of criminal gangs and/or the rebels from the south. It's been done in the past and too many documents to prove.
The Filipinos are just too corrupt. How many times have American SF inspected weapons captured by Filipino soldiers only to see that they were handed over, by American military, to AFP as early as 18 months ago?
Americans are, literally, running the show in the south. The Americans are flying drones, packing-and-flying supply missions to the Light Infantry Company (tasked to hunt down Abu Sayaf/JI). They are training and PAYING for some of the Light Infantry's expenses. Unfortunately for the Filipino commanders of the south, the Americans are not sharing the information gathered from these drone flights because they suspect some of the officer corps are "selling" these info to the rebels.
So what am I saying? The only reason why Americans donated the Hamilton cutter is because it's CHEAPER to do so. The boat came with an engine and some kind of radio, period. No search radar, no Link radio. Transmission is un-encrypted. Oh yeah, a gun. About 100 rounds and that's it. No range gunnery training. They wouldn't be able to hit the barn side of anything ...
The Philippines is a hopeless case. Currently, this spat with China played well into the Philippines' hand. They've been trying to get some kind of "something" from the Americans (and the gullible Filipinos) like going back to Subic/Clark. This is the only way. American knows.
What the Philippine government would love to get from the Americans would be a similar "defense agreement" like Iceland, i. e. We don't have an armed force, you take care of our external defense. Dream on ...
Another thing I kept forgetting ...
DeleteAfter the incident in 9-11, Americans sent a few SOF to the south (this is when one SOF Chinook crashed). One of their objectives was to investigate the veracity of reports of a rat line between the south western part of Mindanao and Indonesia. They wanted to see for themselves how easy is it for JI to cross into the Philippines (when it gets hot). (Sidenote: Everyone knows that it is very, very easy to "disappear" in the jungles of Mindanao.)
What the American SOF saw scared them. They didn't find a "rat line". They saw a full blown highway. Unpatrolled, undocumented, uncontrolled. Outrigged canoes, powered with truck engines, plying the two countries with impunity. They can immediately see, for example, JI agents fleeing Indonesia (due to crackdown) to Mindanao to rest, pass their knowledge, skills and radicalism to the Filipino muslims and return back to Indonesia once the heat has died down.
The Hamilton cutter was to be used, as a start, to look after these lines. It was not meant as a "show of force" against a giant China. This is not David-and-Goliath. This is now becoming like a Golianth-and-an-Ant!
why do you have this raging hardon for the Filipino military???? i can almost hear the hatred. i don't get it.
DeleteThat's why the Filipinos, being so corrupt as they are, most western countries are very weary of donating their latest and greatest. Instead they get old, used gear and hand me downs. If they want new gear, just go to Russia and not have to worry about Western gear with strings attached. They can get Russian gear today, that would be comparable to Western gear and build an industrial base from it.
DeleteThat's why the US gave the Filipinos the old Hamilton cutters without the standard US gear such as CIWS, link radio and no Air search radar. The US doesn't want Filipinos corrupt generals selling off that kind of gear on the black market.
Their problem is the fact that the Filipinos are the most corrupt in the world. Their corruption is what led them to where they are now. Their corruption is what's going to tie them down and not bring them up to par with most western nations.
Ok Nicky, you're really sounding like a troll now.
DeleteThe reason you stated on the second paragraph is probably the very bottom of a long list of why the ships are almost bare bone. (The top probably being because CIWS, link radios and Air search radars are an added strain on an already stressed out AFP and/or Foreign Aid Budget for practically no utility for what the Ship's intended use in the PH navy)
The Filipino's are the most corrupt in the world? Please show me the study/studies that say so. We are one of the most corrupt, but not the most corrupt.
Please give proof that the Russians are selling their 'latest and greatest', or better, that they are giving them away. Also, please provide proof that they are doing it 'with no strings attached'. And please don't just point out that some other nation have the same model number as the latest Russian gear. Case in point -The Iraqi's had T72's back when it was the latest, but it was a far cry from the Red Army T72
Sol,
DeleteYou said "why do you have this raging hardon for the Filipino military????".
LOL. I don't "hate" the AFP. I'm just pointing out to people who "believe XX nation should be selling/giving equipment to the AFP" that you need to know WHY the AFP doesn't have a descent equipment list. Giving away excess/old equipment is not an answer.
The question I'd like to ask is this: HOW do you help the AFP improve their moral conduct?
I, a Filipino, can't even find that answer.
@A.Mannibal
DeleteThe reason why the US didn't give the Philippines the Hamilton cutters with CIWS, link radios and Air search radars is because the US doesn't trust the Corrupt Generals who will wind up selling them on the black market to anyone with Cash. On top of that the US doesn't trust them with sensitive US gear other than their closer Allies. The US doesn't want their gear to fall into enemy hands.
As far as their corruption, just look at how much the Philippine military generals, admirals and politicians are raking in the dough at the expense of their own people. Just look at how poor the common Philippine people are compared to the Admirals, Generals and politician are living. Even the UN labeled the Philippines as one of the most corrupt countries with corrupt leaders.
As for proof that the Russian's are selling their latest and greatest, just look at the countries that are getting Su-27 series aircraft. Look who's getting SSK submarines, Who's getting a stealth frigate, Stealth corvette and Even SAM systems. For example, the India has a Talwar class frigate which is a modified Kirvak III frigate from Russia. Even Vietnam getting Gepard Frigates,and Kilo class SSK's from Russia as well. Even the Vietnam Air force Has SU-30's and SU-27. Even Venezuela has SU-30's from Russia and are in talks to buy the SU-35. As for Tanks, India has the T-90 and Algeria as well. So you need to come up with better materiel homeboy.
Solomon, I Agree Completely with the first paragraph.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with the Mechanized Infantry though. The Philippines isn't much of a tank/IFV terrain. Maybe you meant Amphibious Infantry?
The Philippines can't afford what they need to defend itself. And even if they could, as others have highlighted, they don't have the number of educated technicians able to maintain it. I suppose they could hire contractors to maintain aircraft, ships, etc., but that is yet another expense.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention, any bases we might have on the Philippines are going to be within range of DF21 missile couldn't be targeted at US bases and followed up with amphibious attacks on distant parts of the Philippine archipelago if they wanted to follow it up with a more direct method.
Heck, in the past 5 years, China has built more naval ships than the Philippine Navy will ever possess for the next 20 years. It has no modern aircraft and won't be able to afford any for some time. It simply cannot compete with China.
Heck, it couldn't even deal with its insurgencies without US help.
And with 7000 island in the Philippines, surprisingly most of their military is devoted to the Army rather than the Navy or Air Force. It needs to cut back on Army units, then expand the Navy/Marines and the Air Force if they want to defend the islands from external threats.
Plus, it has 200000 in the reserves. Those need to be cut down and the money devoted towards active duty Navy and Air Force.
Where did this myth that Russian equipment is cheap to maintain come from?
ReplyDeleteThey are simple and quick, but they break VERY quickly.
I'm searching for a source, but the MTBF of the T72 gearbox is 100 hours.
It can be changed by a poorly trained mechanic in a field in twenty minutes, but you still need to buy lots and lots of gear boxes.
Its one of the reasons Soviet proxy forces were so poorly trained, They could afford the tanks, and they could classroom train the support staff, but they couldnt exercise on a regular basis, because the vehicles broke down and it was too expensive to repair them.
Someone should compare their GDP with their neighbors, because I'm sure it pales in comparison.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese already have free use of Philippine territory for all intensive purposes (I heard they even constructed an outpost on one of those islands). Why officially annex anything when they can keep the status quo while the Philippines watch impotently.
Unlike Japan they don't have GDP or a treaty that can help them. All they have is the occasional U.S. hand me down.
China may go for broke and start the whole shebang with Tac Nuke strikes and going hard corps from the word go.
ReplyDeleteOverwhelming the Philippines and taking out their gov. decapitation style.
China has to work fast to get there with the mostest, the fastest to off set the time it would take to get the POTUS to decide to act and actually STFU community Organizing while John Kerry is going to the UN for a bitch and whine session and beg for authorizing US forces to go to war.
China must covertly prepare and strike hard and fast to get inside the population of the Philippines to protect themselves from American air strikes.
They need to grab the Filipino Military by the belt buckle and stay close.
I just can't see China going the nuclear route or even putting troops on the main Philippine Islands. All those route would invoke instant major war with the USA. Instead they will just slowly chock the Philippines through economic warfare and push and grab minor islets like they are doing now. That way they can always claim to be the the victim, and the US will hand wring over doing anything.
ReplyDelete