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| Upgraded BMP-2.
Socom does all kinds of training to defeat insurgent and terrorist forces. What it doesn't do and what always gets it into trouble is when they're faced with fighting conventional forces.
That's the dirty, filthy secret of SOCOM units. When faced with conventional (or conventional acting) forces, they always come out second best.
1. Scud Hunt in Iraq. Special Ops units were either hunted down and killed, hunted and harassed or aborted their missions due to the threat of running into an Iraqi Rifle Company or larger.
2. Assault on Panama. A heavy SEAL unit was tasked with taking out Noriega's plane. The unit ran into a buzzsaw of alert security, security that stood and fought and a blown approach to the objective.
3. Assault on Grenada. A SEAL unit got chopped up and had to be rescued by the 22nd Marine Amphibious Unit (love that name...we need to drop "expeditionary" and readopt "amphibious"...everyone is expeditionary now...amphibious is unique). The only thing that prevented annihilation was a brilliant move by one of the SEALs to use alternative forms of communication.
4. Small Unit Ops in Afghanistan. The stories are legion and legendary about small units being fixed, fought and damn near annihilated in the Afghanistan mountains. I've been told that its worse than the official record indicates and that several missions resulted in "bad days" but they've been classified. I list such talk as nothing but hearsay, but it must be considered.
I said all of the above to point out the obvious. SOCOM and small units are always at risk of being destroyed by conventional units with superior firepower and mobility.
Heading into the Pacific the question must be asked.
Why is the West emphasizing Special Operations Forces while China is doing everything in its power to improve its conventional forces?
The answer is obvious.
In a war between China and the West, SOCOM will be a bit player. Regular US Army and Marine Corps units will either carry the day or lose and die.
The Counter Insurgency Mafia is leading us astray. Raids, Raids and more Raids will not work in the Pacific. Instead of facing unorganized and poorly trained insurgents, those SOCOM forces will be facing military styled internal security or regular infantry formations.
And against such a force, getting to work by parachute or scuba tanks will matter little. What will matter is the weight of fire that can be brought to bear. In such a scenario 16-30 rifles along with anti-tank weapons will be small comfort against 100-400 well trained infantrymen supported by artillery and armored vehicles.
What concerns is that leadership is aware of this. But for some reason they've convinced themselves that for the foreseeable future Special Ops and airpower will be what is needed to hold the line until economic conditions improve for the US to modernize its forces.
I think its a fool's bet.
I think that China will notice, will bide its time until the cuts are deepest and make some type of move to gauge US reaction. No reaction or simple protests to the UN will embolden them. But that is probably the best that we can do even now.
If China makes a land grab in the Philippines then there is nothing anyone can do to stop them.
The military decline of the US has truly begun.
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Friday, August 02, 2013
SOCOM theory and a bad future.
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The thing is SF were used in WW2 as Fire And forget units, to destroy bridges, radar, DCA, sabotages... They did their missions with high losses.
ReplyDeleteAt this time heavy losses were acceptable, because there were heavy losses were in all units.
So nowadays we face:
-these units were intended to accomplish their missions without losses.
-We want to use it in Ennemy motherland instead of occupied territory.
That first meanings on this topics.
Because a full-scale war with China is going to be ultimately decided by Industrial Capacity and ability to swallow casualties. Not much thinking regarding doctrine and organization will affect the outcome in such a case.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the other possibility (which China, to an extent, seem to be doing) is dividing the rest of SE Asia and gaining influence (as opposed to outright invasion) by instigating small wars/insurgencies like a cold war redux*. If this is the case, then SOCOM units will have much more utility. And unlike all out war, much more thought is required on the creation, deployment and employement of such forces.
In analogy, it's better to train using a scalpel for precise cutting work, because it's easier to just go back to using a sledgehammer when necessary; going from sledghammer to scalpel, on the other hand, will quite tougher.
your premise is faulty. you're assuming that a conventional war today would be a rerun of WW2. that is false.
Deletea conventional war would be more like the Gulf War 1. and in such a scenario SOCOM would be all but useless.
Solomon, I think, you're reply was meant for the post above mine's.
DeleteMy premise is that China may opt for a Cold war redux, and in such a case training SOCOM units is more useful. If China does go for a conventional war, then the SOCOM units will have very little utility, however it's easier to suddenly raise, equip, train and employ conventional forces. On the flip side, if the Pentagon operates from the assumption of an all-out war, but a Cold War style happens, the sudden creation of SOCOM units will be harder.
On a personal note, I'm from the Philippines, and I'm glad that you guys have discrete forces operating here as advisers. Having large conventional forces here would just be trouble as the uneducated/brainwashed would just use that as fuel for their hate-boners against America.
Back to the acedemic side, a full blown war with China may be more like WW2 ETO than GW1, as the Iraqi's didn't have the industrial capacity to wage a full scale war. But yes, I agree that SOCOM units will be of little value in such a case.
i just don't see how two super powers can wage a full scale conventional war (with allies) and it last beyond a few months. first you have to consider your conventional forces. they're not like Grandpa's Army and Marine Corps. as a matter of fact many conventional units conduct SOCOM-lite type missions. as a matter of fact MEU's once had Special Operations Capable as part of the name and certification. next, when you consider the anti-air assets, surface to surface missiles, uavs etc, you're talking about ops tempo that would condense years of warfare into a few months. last, i don't believe the economies of either nation could withstand a conflict that stretched for even a year.
Deletebesides. the longer the conflict the easier it is to slide into a nuclear war. say China is getting the best of the US and its allies and suddenly makes a move to take Tokyo...or Hawaii. would the US use nukes in that case? probably. so i guess we're stuck with agreeing to disagree.
Yep, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that point. I just don't see how two nuclear armed nations could go to open war against each other and keep it 'conventional' and small scale. We're not talking about border skirmishes here (and by India-Pakistan's example, the presence of Nukes on both sides tend to stop that too). So yeah, from my point of view what's going to happen is either discrete SOCOM-type conflicts, or full scale mobilization for a full scale war.
DeleteRemember that China is still governed by a dictatorial government, that both nationalism and internal strife is on the rise there, and they have a huge army that wants to prove itself; and historically speaking, such a combination of factors tend to lead to stupid things.
Agree to disagree it is.
The conventional phase of OIF wasn't like Gulf War I, why would the next war be? On that note, SOCOM played a much larger role in GWII as well.
ReplyDelete"If China makes a land grab in the Philippines then there is nothing anyone can do to stop them."
ReplyDeleteLOL bullshit.
How do they get there? Row boats? Is the US Navy asleep? I would love to watch them try. The US has more ships in the pacific alone, than all the asian Navies combined.
China has one carrier, with less than a squadron we have 6, with 2 dozen squadrons.
not too smart. i said that they would wait until the sequester hits full force. in about 5 years will the advantage hold? i'm guessing no. additionally the Chinese Navy is building more ships every year. the advantage will not hold.
DeleteIn the case of the Philippines, this overlooks recent moves between the Philippines and Japan. China would face not just our Navy, but a combined US/Japan naval force.
DeleteIf they pull anything the money spigot get turned on again (how many trillions got freed up to fight afghan and Iraq?)
DeleteThe US Navy Alone outweighs the next 12 navies combined, and of those 12 navies only 2 (Russia and China) are not friendly with the US. For someone who says he is a Marine you sure don't understand the kind of equipment and operational capabilities required to pull off what you are claiming with China.
US Submarines are some of the finest in the world, and they alone could probably annihilate the Chinese navy.
Terrifically helpful - direct, practical, my favorite way to approach things!
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