Thursday, August 29, 2013

F-15SE. The likely winner.


via YonhapNews.
"Restarting the project with no clear reason would delay the replacement of old combat jets, affect other new projects and hurt South Korea's international credibility," the DAPA said.
"The DAPA will suggest a model that comes within the overall budget to a committee meeting, which will make a decision whether to accept it or not," it said, indicating that only F-15 SE will be up for grabs in a meeting of top military officials slated for mid-September.
This will be interesting.

Lockheed Martin and the Joint Chiefs will lie, cheat and fabricate information to make sure that the F-35 gets selected.  Die in the ditch was a quote by one of the members.

S. Koreans are a proud, stubborn people and won't accept pressure to change their decision and will resent people meddling with their selection process.

The critics have been waiting on one country to drop out of the program.  LM counted S. Korea and now it looks like they lost.  Is this the beginning of the end?  I don't know but this won't help bend the cost curve...especially if the program office was counting on these 60 airplanes to help make the F-35 more affordable. 

14 comments :

  1. Ummm, what.....

    Losing 60 jets, for now, in S, Korea, will NOT "sink" the F-35.

    The USMC will just have to deal with the Amtrak for another 25 years or so :)

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  2. The F-35 lost because LockMart could not come up with a definitive price under S. Korea's budget. Pure and simple.

    Nobody, not Lockheed Martin, not the Pentagon, nobody knows how much these things will cost. Too much of the final price is dependent on how many are sold and how much more development needs to be done. Thanks to the Pentagon's Foreign Military Sales policy, LockMart can't offer fixed price deals because that could result in a foreign country getting a subsidized price.

    In the end, 60 fighters isn't a huge loss, and won't put much of a dent in the final price. It is a blow to the F-35's momentum however, and could give plenty of other potential purchasers second thoughts. It's also a huge bonus for Boeing, and could result int the Silent Eagle stealing a few more JSF sales, now that it has a definite future.

    This could be the snowball starting to roll down the hill.

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  3. South Korea was never part of the JSF program so NOT getting an extra order of 60 jets will NOT affect the current plan. Would a win been a benefit to the JSF program and would it have made all LRIP F-35s cheaper, sure, but so would Congress sticking to the ramp-up plan too.

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  4. The USAF should deep six the F-35 or cut the number of F-35's that it plans to buy, and instead invest in the "Silent Eagle" version of the F-15E and re-start production of the F-22. A 180 or so Raptors just doesn't cut it.

    And for the USN / USMC, the enhanced Super Hornet will work and the AV-8B still has life left in it.

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  5. Oh goodie, the ABJ crowd is back.

    Let’s ignore that the F-15SE is more expensive to buy, that the both advanced 4th gen birds cost more to operate, and that they are not going to restart the F-22 (I too lamented it’s production end), let’s just buy ANYTHING as long as it’s not the F-35.

    Logic fail

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    Replies
    1. Apparently you are privy to information that the S. Koreans couldn't get from LockMart. Perhaps you missed the part where the F-15SE was the only jet to come in within the $7.2 billion budget?

      The fact that the F-35 was the first to be eliminated, based on price, would suggest it costs MORE than the F-15SE. Even the Typhoon bid was able to get under the budget, albeit with some "creative accounting".

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    2. Doug, it's like I said earlier, SpudmanWP pretends that he is smarter than all of the people the South Korean government brought together to make this decision. He is willing to say anything even if it means ignoring logic to defend the F-35. It's a waist of time arguing with him. It's best just to ignore him and let him be. You can educate the those aren't knowledgeable, but you can't fix blind ignorance.

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    3. Doug/Andrew.
      You do realize that the F-35 price included the cost of training? New parts supply build all the logistics for a completely new air craft? Not just the cost of the F-35's.
      The Koreans already have the F-15 and make the entire forward section of everyone sold, even the new Saudi birds. This entire competition was BS, they used it as a bargaining chip against Boeing.
      If you cannot see that then you are right "you can't fix blind ignorance"

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    4. Regardless of the factors, the F-35 is too expensive. That's why it lost. By the way, the talking points you are presenting certainly weren't ones that SpudmanWP was trying to get across. SpudmanWP blatantly ignores logic and facts when they are right in front of him. So, tell me, why couldn't Boeing get the F-15SE across to other F-15 customers like Japan and Israel? Both those countries are going for the F-35 and they operate F-15s.

      Nice try, but I highly doubt this competition was BS. This happened for real and the F-35 lost out. Also, it's pretty obvious that most of the competitions the F-35 has won have been complete BS. The jet gets all these amazing awards and praise without having to actually perform first. If anything the jet gets its performance requirements lowered and hasn't had to engage in a fly-off competition. Every time the F-35 wins something it is a BS joke.

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    5. keep an eye on Canada. if that country picks another airplane then the Netherlands is in jeopardy...not doubt but jeopardy. additionally start looking to Southern Europe. Italy is a huge question mark and as much as i'd love to see Turkey become a power in the middle east, you should keep an eye on them too. Erogan has a whiff of radical in his policies. as much as i hate to admit it, they seem like they could tip into radicalism easily. that would alarm greater europe and put the F-35 program in a tailspin.

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    6. Hahaha! Canada just found out that the F-35 could cost them $71 billion in the worst case scenario. This is coming after they were experiencing the worst amount of sticker shock over the earlier stated $45 billion. A lot of blame is going around in their parliament and thy are really upset:

      http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2013/08/29/f-35-purchase-could-cost-canada-$71-billion-under-worst-case-scenario/35778

      If Canada drops out it could cause other countries that want out to get out.

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  6. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  7. The F-15SE isn't more expensive to buy, it's more expensive, bought in low rate, one off deals, than a hypothetical F-35 with hypothetical cost improvements bought in huge multi-year buys that might come later (not counting retrofit costs).

    Operating costs are another matter and, while the F-35 should have an edge there, the F-15SE should make further improvements in the F-15s numbers (AESA being one example of newer tech taking less maintenance, the 'glass cockpit' presumably being another). As Harlan seems to be admitting, there is also the issue that the F-15SE would be leveraging a base of Korean experience with the F-15 that will give it advantages vs. the small, 'high mix' number of F-35s the Koreans would have been operating.

    The comments been removed, but the development cost/risk of the SE is variable and can be controlled: it will leverage a lot of the work done for the Saudi F-15s and that Boeing has done for F-18 development and the canted tail seems to be off the table, so it's very much an evolutionary project.

    All in all this competition is just confirmation of something we've known all along: if cost truly is an independent variable, and not just a lie on a powerpoint slide to fool congressmen, the F-35 can't cut it.

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    1. i removed the comments because they're linking to some site that Google is telling me is malware. still haven't nailed it down but i'm trying. its really quite frustrating

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