via The Hill Blog.
The F-35 is devouring the defense budget in general and the Marine Corps budget in particular.
We're reaching critical mass. You want the F-35? Then you lose your tank manufacturing capability. You want the F-35? Then your ship building industry will be curtailed....you'll be lucky to have even one shipyard. You want the F-35? Then you're going to slash the Army and Marine Corps beyond pre-Iraq/Afghanistan manning levels.
But the biggest oh shit moment for F-35 fans is a little fact that is being ignored. The cost spiral has already hit. Canada and the Netherlands are purchasing the number of F-35s that they can afford--which means they're buying fewer than originally planned.
If you add all this together, a plane that is crazy expensive, a plane that is causing cuts to other programs and a plane that is causing other parts of the defense sector to shrink to a size that might not be salvageable then you have only one possible outcome.
Congress is going to take this program down to the river and hold it under until it stops kicking.
“Round up the usual suspects” deadpans Claude Rains as the police chief in the classic movie Casablanca. The same happens when Washington experts propose budget cuts at the Pentagon.
Because it is a large international program with a large price tag, the first to be dragged through the door by critics is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. For example, some respected analysts suggest cutting the program in half, from 2,450 F-35s for the U.S. to about 1,200 F-35s. Others propose ending the F-35 program entirely.
This is scary and wrong. Deep cuts to F-35 will leave the U.S. (and allies) ill-prepared for future contingencies.
....chatter about deep cuts to the F-35 continues even as the program has stabilized...She is basically telling us that Think Tanks in Washington, DC are actively passing along studies to lawmakers telling them what I've been yelling at the top of my lungs for the last month or so.
The F-35 is devouring the defense budget in general and the Marine Corps budget in particular.
We're reaching critical mass. You want the F-35? Then you lose your tank manufacturing capability. You want the F-35? Then your ship building industry will be curtailed....you'll be lucky to have even one shipyard. You want the F-35? Then you're going to slash the Army and Marine Corps beyond pre-Iraq/Afghanistan manning levels.
But the biggest oh shit moment for F-35 fans is a little fact that is being ignored. The cost spiral has already hit. Canada and the Netherlands are purchasing the number of F-35s that they can afford--which means they're buying fewer than originally planned.
If you add all this together, a plane that is crazy expensive, a plane that is causing cuts to other programs and a plane that is causing other parts of the defense sector to shrink to a size that might not be salvageable then you have only one possible outcome.
Congress is going to take this program down to the river and hold it under until it stops kicking.
You know Sol, the biggest proponent for the F-35 going ahead full tilt would be our enemies. Because if the United States were to continue on it's current course of the full compliment, and all the cuts to our other forces happen, how much does that leave the United States open to a major attack?
ReplyDeletei think that its a huge hole we're setting ourselves up for.
Deletewhen the financials of this finally dawned on me, i wrestled with it for a couple of days before i started body slamming this program. and that's whats happening for alot of people.
especially in the Marine Corps. we've been wanting a supersonic STOVL airplane to operate from our LHD/LHA for along time. we finally see it right before us but its bankrupting every one of our other programs. if i can see this then so can HQMC and so can the Chinese.
but that's the good news. before policy makers can make the turn, the Marines as an institution have to. and thats happening now.
this program is already dead. Lockheed Martin is about to take a major hit and stockholders will still smile because the cancellation payments will raise stock prices for another quarter or two. but the bigger damage will be done.
it will take a Pentagon generation (about 4 years) before they're trusted again...and even then this lesson is too big to be ignored or forgotten. no one will ever be able to setup an international boondoggle like this ever again.
I put a comment at the end of that piece. Pretty much sums it up. Said.
ReplyDeleteLocked Martin has just joined the V-280 program : Prepare for cost overrun and canccelation !
ReplyDeletewe're in the interwar period between WW1 and WW2. we're seein alot of exciting concepts but will see few get put into production. additionally LM is going to be toxic. they can team with who ever but that will be seen as the kiss of death.
Deleteits funny. if LM had pulled it off, if they had decided to take a profit hit now and make it up later then they would have cornered the market on modern fighters. they fucked up the F-35 and the next people in charge of the DoD are gonna want their pound of flesh.
Locked should Have lost all since the F-104, but they always assiocate to Credible Firms( IE :General dynamics for F16, Boeing for F22, now Bell) to regain political credit, they makelobbying on pentagone, and finally they dump another time pentagone budget !
DeleteIn your country, money rules in washington, and each time, they get even more money...
Canada already dropped its proposed order from 80 down to 65. According to the bigwigs at DND (Dept of National Defense), 65 was the BARE MINIMUM needed to protect Canada... How the fuck 65 temperamental, slow, and over-complicated fighters are supposed to protect the second largest country in the world, I don't know.
ReplyDelete$9 billion (initial cost) for 65 fighters. Supposedly, that's Canada's "red line" for the F-35. Any more $$$ or any less jets, no deal. Even the, opposition parties are calling for an open competition, and jets like the Typhoon, Gripen, and Ultra Hornet are starting to get some grass roots support.
If (and when) Canada backs out, that's it. 65 fighters isn't a whole lot, but it would likely be the first of many countries to back out.
lol, it won't be called the Royal Canadian Air Force anymore. It will just be the Royal Canadian Squadron...
ReplyDeleteI'm actually starting to think this might get cancelled before a bad incident now. I have friends in Canada that are intent on fighting this decision and hate the F-35. Most of them want Super Hornets and some want the Gripen. Overall, when the F-35 program is ended, if it happens this year or next year, the amount of money that Lockheed's shareholders will have made is significant and the damage to their reputation for how it was made will be substantial.
the Canuks should get serious about funding a military....
DeleteOh wait, that would require drops in welfare :)
dude. you're turning into a joke. they just backed us in a questionable military endeavour in Syria and you're talking shit about them?
Deletethey have a balanced budget. they buy what they can afford. and you want to question how they fund their military? it can be said that for years the biggest welfare program in the US was the F-35 program. its doubled in price (at the very least) and yet it continues????? thats bullshit and so is your statement.
Is Boeing smelling blood on the ocean?...
ReplyDeleteThere are rumors that Boeing and Saab are teaming up to offer the Gripen to the USAF for the T-X program...
Will we see a LWF affordable fighter being sneek in to the USAF?
http://www.aereo.jor.br/2013/09/09/parceria-boeing-saab-pode-gerar-futuro-treinador-do-programa-t-x/
i think boeing smells blood but i don't think that program is it. i see the T-38 being extended in service or them buying the T-45 to get commonality with the USAF.
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