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via WantChinaTimes.
The J-31, China's second prototype fifth-generation stealth fighter, designed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, will be produced for the export market instead of for China's air force and navy, according to Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong of the PLA Navy in a People's Daily report.The J-31 is for export only?
While the Washington-based Strategy Page said the J-31 has the potential to become a future carrier-based stealth fighter for the PLA Navy, Zhang said it is unlikely the plane will serve aboard Chinese aircraft carriers. Unlike the J-20 designed by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the J-31 was never a development program intended for the Chinese military, Zhang said.
Like the FC-1/JF-17 Xiaolong or Thunder multirole fighter designed jointly by China and Pakistan, the J-31 will be most likely be a model intended for export to China's allies and strategic partners, which may include countries like North Korea and Iran. Chinese fighters are a much cheaper alternative to US fighters for developing countries, even those which are able to buy military hardware from the United States.
A model of the J-31 was first displayed at the Zhuhai Air Show in Guangdong province last November, where it was described as a fighter to open China's overseas market. It was called the "Advanced Fighter Concept," according to the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). The model was displayed again at the opening of the Beijing international Aviation Exposition on Sept. 25, under the new name of "China Concept Fighter." Sources from AVIC told People's Daily however that the "China Concept Fighter" is not the J-31.
An interesting development. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Additionally its shocking to note that a F-35/F-22 clone is deemed not good enough for Chinese forces.
Interesting indeed.
It's also interesting that China revealed models for a Quad Tiltrotor assault copter AND a compound hybrid high speed attack copter at a recent tech expo in Tianjin...at the same time as the US is developing exactly the same aircraft as its next generation rotorcraft...I wonder how much defense research in the US is actually still 'classified'...most seems to flow into these guys faster than our money
ReplyDeleteIt isn't that the J-31 is not good enough for Chinese forces. It is that the Chinese are laying the groundwork to become the dominant high end arms exporter in the next 20 to 40 years. If you can get a Chinese 5th gen fighter for less than the cost of an American 4++ gen fighter. This is a play from the Japanese business model, create a product line that sells at a loss for the first two or three years to build the brand, and as production costs decline, keep the price point steady so that you transition to profit and have an established user base for future upgrades. It works for businesses willing to play the long game.
ReplyDeletethat's a nightmare scenario. that's a scarier plan than anything i thought of. filling the skies with planes that are as good as our but scattered all over the world?
DeleteIran could effectively blunt an allied assault to take out nuke facilities. with help from the Chinese they could win. and that's the next thing i'm looking for. the time when China does partnership missions in the Middle East and Africa.
This reminds me of what we did to the Soviet Union, instead of beating them on the battlefield, we spent them into an oblivion. It is a great strategy that forces the US to make compromises, which in turn creates chinks that can be exploited at a minimal cost. Moreover, as the US comes to this conclusion, the only logical response will be to tighten out belts and abandon previous areas of concern, thereby allowing the Chinese to exert their influence at their leisure. On this same line of thinking, they could provide nuclear weapons to other countries which will also help achieve the same end result. Very scary!
Deletewe're fucked. didn't i tell you not to vote Democrat?
DeleteSolomon,
DeleteYou don't have to worry about J-31 too much, because Russia has an effective veto on this thing's export because engines are Russian. Chinese are still struggling with producing a reliable military jet engine to this date and relies on Russia for export model's engines.
Since Japanese too are struggling with its own jet engine program, this problem isn't something that could be overcome easily. Not to mention that Chinese airframes are designed to last 4000 hours and will have a lifespan of only 15~20 years in normal usage.
i just don't know. our decline as a nation seems assured unless we get dramatically better leadership and the same applies for our military.
Deletei'm not worried about war with China anymore. i believe they've already achieved regional superioority. the only question is whether that extends to both us and our allies over China and heers.
Right now, things are literally exploding in Korea as the long awaited details of the KFX, which was greenlighted by the president for the full scale development starting next year, are disclosed. It is a twin engine(EJ2X0/F414) jet with 6 tons of internal fuel and 460 sq feet wing area, that should be nimble enough to battle the advanced PLAAF jet inventory(J-20, Su-35) across the Yellow Sea. Likewise Japan will go ahead with its F-3 program as soon as they have a partner(The prefer the US but will take another country) to share production volume. Both are not only available for export, but will actually compete for business, so the western block will have A2A optimized 5th gen jets able to take on Chinese advanced types.
DeleteWhat I find extremely ironic is that was supposed to be the original plan we had for the F-35. The Chinese stole it from us in almost every way, even the plane itself. That's embarrassing.
DeleteInteresting, but I doubt Iran or North Korea can afford this jet
ReplyDeleteBoth Iran and North Korea are under the UN arms embargo sanctions and China does honor this embargo. In fact, fighter jets are on China's own list of "banned" export items to North Korea.
DeleteWhere is the full list?
DeleteDavid,
Deletehttp://world.time.com/2013/09/24/china-lists-items-banned-from-export-to-north-korea/
China could bring pilots, ground crew, techs and instructors from client states for training in the PRC. Get them all up to speed, then start shipping planes to the client states and *surprise* where yesterday there were no J31s, suddenly today there are two squadrons flying over Bushehr.
DeleteIt would instantly change the balance of power in regions.
Still, I don't think Pakistan or NK could afford these planes. Iran might, but that is a short client list.
This 'export' story might just be disinformation by China or it might just be a test platform.
i have two words for you guys...especially since China appears to be following the America pattern when we were America.
Deletethe two words are...Foreign Aid. they don't have to afford the airplanes. they just have to have something China wants, be wiling to aid China in a goal or be worth giving millions upon millions of dollar to.
Paralus,
DeleteYou have to understand the PLA structure before understanding why this "export-only" model is happening. The PLA comprises of 7 military regions, or formerly warlords, who are separate from are competing against each other. Each military region is a separate army with its own air force and military suppliers. This is the reason why the PLA units sent from different regions to Sichuan to aid quake victims found out that they could not communicate with each other because they all had different communication equipment with them.
The J-20 is developed by the CAC of the Chendu Military Region, while the J-31 is developed by the SAC of the Shenyang Military Region. While the PLA central command selected the J-20 as its next high-end jet, the Shenyang Military Region decided to purse the losing design with its own funding, because the SMR needs revenue for the SAC past the production of its famous Flanker rip offs.
So you have to understand the PLA's internal structure to understand how a local military region could fund a jet fighter by itself irrelevant of the central government's decision.
Very true. For the cost of a few billion dollars, they could create a problem with strategic implications in a part of the world to distract the US.
DeleteNorth Korea, Sudan, Iran, Pakistan, Burma
Paralus
DeleteWell, North Korea and Iran are under the UN arms embargo.
Pakistan, yes. But Pakistan is primarily India's problem, whose air force is growing leaps and bounds to overwhelm Pakistan, and there is no way Pakistan could ever equal India's military force even with Chinese aids.
Sudan, that's a regional conflict that the US may prefer to stay out.
As for Burma, they are actually trying to stay away from China and is coming closer to the West, because Burmese government does understand that any Chinese investment are exploitative and generally benefits China only. The recent Burmese reforms are to appease Western powers and to draw their investments.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteThe J-31 looks familiar, doesn't it.
ReplyDeleteApr 21, 2009
Computer Spies Breach Fighter-Jet Project
WASHINGTON -- Computer spies have broken into the Pentagon's $300 billion Joint Strike Fighter project -- the Defense Department's costliest weapons program ever -- according to current and former government officials familiar with the attacks. Former U.S. officials say the attacks appear to have originated in China. However it can be extremely difficult to determine the true origin because it is easy to mask identities online.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124027491029837401.html
Mar 6, 2008, DOD IG Report
Security Controls Over Joint Strike Fighter Classified Technology
"...As a result, DoD’s advanced aviation and weapons technology in the Joint Strike Fighter program may have been compromised by unauthorized access at facilities and in computers at BAE Systems."
http://pogoarchives.org/m/ns/dod-ig-report-20080306.pdf
also in the WSJ article:
ReplyDeleteComputer systems involved with the program appear to have been infiltrated at least as far back as 2007, according to people familiar with the matter. Evidence of penetrations continued to be discovered at least into 2008. The intruders appear to have been interested in data about the design of the plane, its performance statistics and its electronic systems, former officials said.
The intruders compromised the system responsible for diagnosing a plane’s maintenance problems during flight, according to officials familiar with the matter. The spies inserted technology that encrypts the data as it’s being stolen; as a result, investigators can’t tell exactly what data has been taken."
And the Government Accountability Office has noted:
"Software providing essential [F-35] capability has grown in size and complexity, and is taking longer to complete than expected. Late releases of software have delayed testing and training, and added costs. Software defects, low productivity, and concurrent development of successive blocks have created inefficiencies, taking longer to fix defects and delaying the demonstration of critical capabilities."
I would not be surprise if the J-31 is exported to African, middle eastern, Central and South American Air forces. They would seem to be the ones who can afford the JF-17, J-31.
ReplyDelete@ Rohan. I noticed too on Chinese fan clubs more and more talk of a Quad Tilt sized C130. There is a picture of a model floating around and the engine for the supposed project was shown at a trade show. I wouldn't be surprised if isn't already flying in secret somewhere and China will show it to the world at their convenience.
ReplyDeleteThere is demand around the world for a cheap, modern fighter. Why buy an old beat up F16 Block 15, spend millions to refurbish it when for China probably will sell it you for the same price? And as Paralus mentioned, the Chinese would probably throw in support,etc....plus China doesn't care about "democracy" as Western powers so a foreign country is pretty much assured customer service, no questions asked.
NICO,
DeletePakistan's experience with JF-17 was that they wanted to yank out Chinese avionics and radars onboard and put French ones at the cost greater than what they paid to Chinese to acquire jets in the first place, but this deal fell apart when the Indian defense ministry threatened to kick the Rafale out of the MMRCA contest if France went with the deal.
Going by the comments of the export customers of Chinese weapons, there is nothing to be worried about.
There is nothing to be worry to be about as long as the US is able to maintain the current strength level, because Chinese weapons are still poor in capability, quality and reliability, and PLA troops simply do not have the training needed to battle the US and even Japan in naval wars.
ReplyDeleteThe big worry is that the US military strength is in decline.
I am not so sure SlowMan, from what I have read on Pakistanis fan clubs, pilots seem pretty happy with JF17 and it would appear that Pak is installing new weapons, they said it is pretty close in performance with their F16s and slightly behind only on electronics/radar but close enough. You have to realize, not ever country out there wants gold plated solutions, they are happy to have something that can fight and do it again for sustainable period of time. There is no doubt in my mind J10B is superior to an Block F16 but maybe they aren't going to export it, seems that by now, Iran or Pakistan at least would have bought some. Maybe J31 will only be exported with regular radar/electronics JF17 version but in an ungraded airframe engine combo. Way cheaper that an F35 but with some interesting price/performance, which will be plenty good for Africa, some Middle Eastern countries, some of the -stans also could buy it.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget the politics, USA is viewed as very unreliable when it comes to support in case of war, maybe we won't support their F16s whereas China doesn't seem to have that problem, if you pay them, they will send you spares...
Toyota and Honda too had horrible reputations, not anymore......
NICO,
ReplyDeleteThe Pakistani military's attempt to replace the JF-17's avionics with French ones at a great expense suggests otherwise. In no way is the JF-17 equal to the F-16, or the Pakistani military would not want to buy F-16s that have severe operating restrictions on them, such as the 27/7 remote monitoring and the inability to fire weapons outside of Pakistan.
As for Toyota and Honda, you are mistaken because they never had poor quality reputations in the US; they were simply unknown until the oil shocks of the 70s, during which time the American drivers discovered the quality of Japanese cars for the first time, which had 1/3 the defect rate of American cars, and this is where the Japanese quality legend was born.
"Japanese car exports began to rise in the 1950s. Manufacturers faced a skeptical American public who viewed Japanese exports as cheap household products and flimsy, mass-produced junk. However, the founders and leaders of future automotive giants Toyota and Honda were determined to produce cars not only comparable to American cars, but better. Originality and efficiency were the guiding principles, supported by curiosity, an ear for consumers and a desire to improve.
ReplyDeleteBefore long, consumers in the United States (and elsewhere) began to notice the impressive engineering and reliability of Japanese cars, and the Big Three spent much of the 1980s and beyond pleading with domestic consumers to "buy American.""
Yes, there was a time when Japan was associated with junk and crappy products just like China today, probably way before you were born,kiddo. There was a time when made out of plastic and Japan was synonymous and it was pejorative.
As for the JF17, if the pilots that fly it say it compares pretty well to an F16, I will believe them, when was the last time you flew a JF17 or an F16? You have access to classified info? Pakistan needs to replace all those old Mirages and replacing them with something that can do 80% of the job of an F16 for maybe half the price is a good deal.
Most likely in 5-10 years China would reach same technological level as Japan and Europe, and a safe bet that in 10-30 it will enter in a direct competition in all areas with USA.
ReplyDeleteUntil then USA should try not to collapse under ovewhelming burden of gay minorities and sequestration.
Soon good sparring partner will grown up and at last US economy would flourish again by competing with worthy opponent.
Nice post with awesome points! Can’t wait for the next one.
ReplyDeleteAcer - Aspire 15.6" Touch-Screen Laptop - 8GB Memory - 500GB Hard Drive
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