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| The Lockheed Martin Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike, or UCLASS, concept leverages technologies and lessons learned from F-35C, RQ-170 Sentinel, and other operational systems to provide intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission capability. |
That's ballsy as hell.
Lockheed Martin would do well to remember the A-12. One day it was bullet proof and the Navy/USMC was pushing it hard. The next Cheney killed it.
The A-12 I did terminate. It was not an easy decision to make because it's an important requirement that we're trying to fulfill. But no one could tell me how much the program was going to cost, even just through the full scale development phase, or when it would be available. And data that had been presented at one point a few months ago turned out to be invalid and inaccurate."This fall. History will repeat.
Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, 1991.
http://www.mca-marines.org/gazette/article/air-cooperation-and-marine-corps
ReplyDeleteWonder if you read this one? The arguement is that the USMC still needs light TAC air.
I have read MSGT Macs stuff about why the F-35 is so great but I have never been convinced.
Sol, what makes you think it will be in the fall?
ReplyDeletethis fall sequestration continues and the Dems won't let the Republicans modify it to ease the pressure on the Pentagon.
Deletethis fall the threat of a budget default will be fought by those two parties. the only pot of money both will agree to cut is the Pentagon. the republicans will get a freeze on increases in social programs, the dems will insist on a further cut in defense spending and the F-35 will no longer recieve protection because the President won't go for immediate cuts in personnel. cuts in the plane will start and the death spiral will pick up speed. Canada will cut bait and buy the Ultra Hornet for budget reasons and the flood gates will open. Turkey will suffer an ISlamist shock and Congress will get nervous about tech transfers. S. Korea will hold the line and the F-15SE will be procured meaning that the production line is still open for that plane and the off ramps are established. navy/Marines get Super Hornets and make the Harrier last...AF gets new F15s and F16s and everyone gets F-35 tech in their new planes.
work starts on the 6th gen fighter and everyone else gets all the toys that were cancelled...GCV, AMPV, MPC, ACV etc...
Don't forget that EADS, Dassault, and Saab will continue to push their jets (the Typhoon, the Rafale, and the Gripen) HARD. There's lots of conquest sales to be had if the F-35 gets canned, delayed, or even bumped up in price.
DeleteAnd don't be to sure about Canada going with the Super Hornet. Obama's resistance to the Keystone pipeline is really starting to ruffle feathers up north. Not only that, but the RCAF is getting so pissed off at the delayed Sikorsky Cyclone helicopter, its starting to shop around in Europe.
The Typhoon or Gripen could be an easy sell to Canadians sick of U.S. bullshit military programs.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/09/05/pol-sikorsky-cyclone-helicopters-sea-kings-contract-public-works.html
i have never understood why its so hard for Australia and Canada to put a maritime helicopter into service. its gotta be unique custom gear that's only used in Canada. the platform is solid. but more to your point. the Typhoon and Rafale are both in low rate production and any new sales will be either used or expensive as the F-35 almost. only the SAAB will be price competitive and it won't have all the extras that the ultra hornet will bring.
Deletethe issue is price for all these governments and Boeing will be able to beat everyone.
Hey Doug Allen, what US Service is leading the aquation of the Sikorsky H-92? I was not aware it is one of the "bullshit military programs". From what I can it is a Canadian Military program.
DeleteSol, and the real question is do you even allow LM to bid on the 6th gen fighter. After their last two fighter programs ended in massive cost overruns and delays (which were well apparent even during the JSF competition between boeing and LM but somehow got ignored), do you just tell them to f off, your not welcome anymore?
Deleteif i was in charge either they would not be allowed to participate OR they would be charged in criminal court for fraud. preferabbly told to fuck off so that the other manufacturers would get the message. in court their slimies are probably better than govt slimies so that might not get the desired result.
Deletebut we wouldn't lose much. consider this. for the USAF 6th gen we can get northrop to team with BAE and compete against boeing. for the US Navy we can use the same....all these guys can steal engineers from LM to get any knowledge they don't have or get some Russians to help. for the non-stealth Marine jet we would go simple, we would go cheap, but we'd try and use the engine core and as many comparable avionics from the Navy version as possible, make it tough as a junk yard dog and make its tops speed high subsonic so it can stay out of the fleet battle (for our carrier requiremnt we fly whatever the Navy is using). same players as for the Navy jet with hopefully better results than we have now.
One thing I would certainly do for a 6th gen is require that no new system development be done. All systems would have to be copies of the current working F35 systems. Design would be for airframe, engines, and integration. Any systems not currently developed for the F35 would have to be firm fixed price full developer liability contracts.
DeleteOne of the huge cost factors for the F35 was developing all new systems for everything. We shouldn't do this ever again.
"That's ballsy as hell."
ReplyDeleteReminds me of the alleged comments by a popular Aviation Week journalist, about 18 months ago:
"Gentlemen, your target for tonight is Fort Worth. Flacks are predicted to be numerous and persistent on the run-in and over the target, and bullshit is expected to be dense throughout the mission. Synchronize watches and good luck."
Also this Fall there will be a JSF CAPE [Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation] plus some probable erosion in foreign sales.
ReplyDeleteAir Force LtGen Christopher C. Bogdan, program executive officer of the Joint Strike Fighter, in March: “The cost is up by tens of billions,” Bogdan said. “Our partners are starting to put really big dollars into this program.” By the time F-35 reaches lot 8 low-rate production, more than half of the aircraft will be for non-U.S. customers. “They need to know where their money is going,” he said.
Up by tens of billions? Yes.
-original cost $70 million
-must come down to $90 million to be salable
-death spiral - the fewer ordered, the higher the cost
-current costs according to Winslow Wheeler:
A -- 2014 $188.5m
B/C -- 2014 $277.9m
this Fall, level 1 partner (UK):
--Parliamentary Report Says U.K. JSF Buy Remains 'High Risk - Members of the British Parliament have described the U.K.’s plan to purchase the Joint Strike Fighter for the carrier strike role as high risk because of the defense ministry’s lack of control of the program.
level 2 (Italy, Netherlands):
--Amid Local Opposition, Italy Begins F-35 Assembly - ROME — As spending on the F-35 Joint Striker Fighter program continues to arouse strong opposition in Italy, Alenia Aermacchi has started final assembly work of the country’s first JSFs at a custom built facility near Milan.
--U.S. urges Dutch to stick by F-35 fighter order - The Department of Defense urged the Netherlands on Thursday not to cut its order for advanced F-35 warplanes, saying it could end up paying more per plane if it did.
level 3 (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Turkey):
-Reports say that the government of Canada has hit the 'reset button' on the deal because costs go beyond the agreed rate of $9 billion for the acquisition contract (65 @ $138m)
-Denmark - new fighter competition
also: Japan might delay F-35 purchases and apparently the F-35 is out due to high coat in ROK.
LockMart played it smart. Northrop and Boeing were both pushing high end UCLASS solutions so they pushed a high end one too.
ReplyDelete-- In the unlikely event that a high end, F-35 competitive product was allowed into production, they have a shot at the money. Their F-35C bet is hedged.
-- Meanwhile they let the Pentagon F-35 lobby gut the UCLASS requirements to assure that the USN will kill the program itself.
Either way LockMart wins. No one plays Pentagon procurement politics like LockMart. Boeing and Northrop are pathetic amateurs in comparison.
the smartest kids in the room concept right? don't believe it. everyone gets their just deserts and then cry like a baby and claim they did nothing wrong when they get butt fucked in the end.
DeleteLM will see its market shares collapse when everyone sits up and sees the mess that is the US budget. the Pentagon will be an early and easy target and the defense hawks in Congress will be drowned out by the budget hawks. the F-35 will be gutted and because so much of LM's shares are tied up in the program their stock price will crater. workers will be laid off and people will cry.
they'll blame the govt when they should have blamed management. the management waited till the last minute to get religion and before they just wanted to wrestle the very last cent from the taxpayer they could. they slow walked development so they could make even more and in the end they'll be almost put out of business like the A-12 did McDonnel Douglas.
people in the five sided building won't forget and even programs that work won't get selected because no one will trust LM not to fuck them again. management will get replaced and they might rebound....maybe. but its gonna be a tough time for the smartest kids in class.
long story short? fuck LM.
And the sad part about all of this is it isn't like we shouldn't of seen it coming given both the F-22 issues and the major cost and accounting issues during the JSF competition for LM. I still cannot believe that LM won the JSF competition given all the issues that they had. There had to have been lots of money under the table.
DeleteSol, the other bidders are Boeing, who is incompetent, and Northrup Grumman, who don't design fighters anymore.
DeleteAnd guess who makes the upgraded F-16...... Lockheed :-)
Don't forget the upgrading cost on current F35 ... in good old times, US almost give his pre-production fighter to europe, which upgraded them. Now, both aircraft and upgrade ( when it's possible : IS typhoon of first production upgrade cost more than new aircraft ) are heavy.
ReplyDeleteDamn, Sol's delusions know no bounds.
ReplyDeleteThe marine armor programs are DEAD. Deal with it. Upgrading 1979s era jets in the 2010s is incredibly stupid. A pak-fa or J-20 will shred a super hornet.
A Typhhon is still 100 million dollars and has no AESA radar.
The Rafale only has 1 export order.....
The Gripen is leased.... In small numbers, to small airforces, and the South Africa gripens no longer fly.
Your F-35 and V-22 hatred is borderline comedic.
The CH-46 was/is ancient. Lipstick on a pig can't the pig.