Predicting our next COIN op. How about the Southern Philippines?

Thanks Mark for the info.

First this from the Washington Times.

The six-day standoff with the rebels in Zamboanga, one of the most vibrant trading cities in the southern Philippines, was believed to have left at least 55 people dead. It has also raised fears of a setback in the government’s efforts, backed by the United States, to calm insurgencies and fight terrorism.
The government said most of the dead were rebels holed up in several seaside neighborhoods. Government forces were firing mortar rounds into the area and battling street by street to take areas back from the militants.


The situation was serious enough that the country’s top civilian and military leaders traveled to the city, despite the mayhem, to plan their strategy. President Benigno S. Aquino III arrived Friday, with one of his escort helicopters taking small-arms fire as he landed. The crisis has crippled the once peaceful city, a mostly Christian enclave on the island of Mindanao, displacing more than 62,000 people.

That's right friends.

Muslim Rebels are attacking cities in the Philippines.  We already have Special Forces operating on that island and more SOCOM assets are on the way.

To make matters worse (or better, it depends on your view) is the fact that the US military is close to getting access to Subic Bay Naval base and Clark air base.

This is how you get involved in other peoples wars.  The second thing you need to realize is exactly how wide ranging the problem with Muslim extremist is.  The tilt to the Pacific isn't taking us away from the problem.  And the stationing of US forces in the Philippines puts us directly in the mix of the fight again.  This is from Military Review.

 Several island chains bisect the T3, providing natural corridors for transit.
They provided trading routes during the precolonial era in Southeast Asia.
Today, along with legitimate trade, they provide relatively safe transit routes
for criminal and terrorist elements and for the movement of weapons and
personnel to the region’s two infamous terrorist groups, the Jemaah Islamiyah
(JI) in Southeast Asia, and the Abu Sayyaf Group in the southern Philippines. 
Four main island chains transit the T3 area. These chains have many unof-
ficial names—“rat lines,” “infiltration routes,” “terrorist corridors”—and
are referred to differently by Department of Defense, Department of State,
various intelligence agencies, and Department of Justice officials.

Yeah.

Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah.

From one insurgency to another on the other side of the world.  How come I get the impression of the Philippines being another tar baby...Just in the jungles instead of the desert? 

Sidenote:  Has anyone considered that SOCOM might be a reason for the US edging toward perpetual war?  If conventional forces are used, there is no secrecy, the warfare is out in the open and everyone has full visibility.  Toss it to SOCOM and US forces are active worldwide without end.