Wednesday, September 04, 2013

This, That and The Other Thing...

Focus gents.
This, That and The Other Thing...

*  American Mercenary has an article up that refutes a few of my arguments with regard to the F-35.  I'm not buying it but it is an interesting read.

*  Speaking of the F-35, I got a note from the Norwegian Ministry of Defense that refutes points made in an article that I linked to you yesterday.  It reads as follows....
Hi, just saw your post on the Norwegian F-35 purchase, and I feel like some context is required here. The article you refer to only gives part of the story.
First of all – the armed forces do not have to “find” four billion NOK within its own budgets. The money for the F-35 has been found, and is being allocated annually. There is no change here.
What did change was that up until 2012, the government had planned to provide the defense budget with more supplemental funding during the procurement of the F-35 than what is currently the plan. That funding was scaled back in 2012, meaning the Ministry of Defense had to fund more of the project within its regular procurement budgets, and because of that, some other projects of lesser priority over the coming 10 years had to be pushed, scaled back, and in a few cases cancelled outright. In other words, it was not that the F-35 grew in cost, it was that the way it was being funded changed.
Even after we changed our procurement plans to take more of the F-35 funding within the regular budget, which was not an easy process, as the Chief of Defense indicates in his comments, we will still be using 70% of the procurement funds in the years 2012-2023 on other projects than the F-35. Note that these are the main years of the Norwegian F-35 procurement. So the F-35 is by no means eating the entire budget and we continue to invest in a full range of capabilities for our armed forces, and the F-35 is not responsible for any “thinning” or “gutting” of our forces, quite the opposite. The F-35 is of course a big chunk of our budgets, no one is denying that, but then again, the F-35 will also be a significant component of our future armed forces.
And, a final point to remember – irrespective of what aircraft we had decided to buy, we would have had a similar challenge. Had we decided to go for another aircraft of similar capability, and supplemental funding for the purchase had been scaled back, we would also have had to make some kind of adjustment to our general procurement plans. In other words, this has nothing to do with the F-35 being “unaffordable” or anything like that, it simply reflects that modern fighter aircraft are expensive, and that they will make an impact on the budgets of any nation that buys them, no matter the type of aircraft we are talking about.
Hope that provides you with some additional context.
To all of the above I say fine...But I'm just the messenger.  I have no visibility on the Norwegian Defense Force and I was going off the information provided in the article.  I refuse to imply that this person is misleading or lying.  I've corresponded with him on several occasions and know him to be an honorable individual.  But its apparent that the battle over the cost of the F-35 is raging in Norway just like it is in the US.

*  Next up is an article by Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute.  Its also a must read.  The reality of how the F-35 is killing other important procurement projects is becoming obvious even to him.  He tries to make the case for increased funding, the end of sequestration or a modification of the same.  He's asking too much and it just won't happen.  Cuts are here to stay and the US is putting all its eggs into the F-35 basket.

This is getting interesting.

I feel critical mass approaching for the F-35 program.  Either it lives and everything else dies, or the program is curtailed and we get at least a few other programs in the door.

Syria is the focus but the coming budget debate is where the real action is.  This fall will be fun.

5 comments :

  1. "modern fighter aircraft are expensive"
    -- in the case of the F-35, make that EXPENSIVE. The Norway MOD may not realize HOW expensive. The 2014 'A' unit price is $188.5 million, according to Winslow Wheeler, and B/C at $277.9.

    Yes, critical mass is approaching on the JSF. Frank Kendall, the Pentagon acquisition chief, has said the F-35 will undergo another CAPE (Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation) review this fall. All those unpublicized cost figures will (hopefully) see the light of day.

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  2. No where did the Noggy actually have any proof of the F-35 (as a weapon system) actually working.

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  3. "This fall will be fun."

    The smart money says that Canada will be the first F-35 partner to drop out. Canada's acquisition budget for their 65-plane buy is $9 billion or $138.4m each. Current unit cost - $188.5m or $50 million more per copy.

    news report:
    U.S. defense firm Lockheed Martin is 'neck-up' in controversy with the Canadian government putting a cap on its F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Reports say that the government of Canada has hit the 'reset button' on the deal because costs go beyond the agreed rate of $9 billion for the contract. A spending cap that limits the purchase of F-35s to $9 billion has been placed by the conservative party in Canada.

    Historical note: F-35 cost helped bring down the gov't Mar 25, 2011.

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  4. By all rights, Norway should be one of the F-35's biggest cheerleaders.

    Norway's Joint Strike Missile (aka Naval Strike Missile) will be about the only anti-surface missile available to to F-35 buyers, as the Harpoon's integration looks doubtful. The JSM will also likely be one of the few missiles able to fit in the F-35's weapons bays. The more F-35s sold, the more JSMs sold.

    http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2013/06/pictures-why-norway-wants-the/

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  5. Solomon, don't think of it as refuting some of your arguments, think of it is as alternative analysis of why the F-35 isn't worth the pain.

    Once you put modern jammers on a "stealth" aircraft it stops being a "stealth" aircraft. To be "stealth" they have to have strict emissions control (EMCON) which means no communications transmit (can still recieve though, comms, nav signals, gps, etc), targeting radar, or jammers. Once a transmitter goes hot, something can see it, and more and more countries are bumping up their EW capabilities to detect these emissions.

    The fact that the cost of F-35 stealth is so easily defeated, for a plane that is otherwise no more capable than an F-16, makes for a compelling argument that it should be scrapped. Why have a 5th Gen fighter that must rely on 4th gen ECM and ECCM systems when you have 4+ gen fighters that are ready to upgrade?

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