If you want to read something chilling, then follow this link, read the story and consider the implications. IDR says that the story originated in a pro China, Chinese news paper. What does this mean for the US and its allies? The Red Dragon is coming. We have time to prepare but if this article is correct then time is rapidly running out. Spoiler alert. They claim that the first war (a reunification of Taiwan) will occur between 2020 and 2025.
We won't even be able to slow them down if we continue on our current trajectory militarily. The Marine Corps will be fully "airborne" and not the balanced, middle weight, combined arms force it is today and will get slaughtered by Chinese Mechanized units. Wow. Who needs coffee when you have the internet. This was an eye opener.
Make sure you read that article.
We won't even be able to slow them down if we continue on our current trajectory militarily. The Marine Corps will be fully "airborne" and not the balanced, middle weight, combined arms force it is today and will get slaughtered by Chinese Mechanized units. Wow. Who needs coffee when you have the internet. This was an eye opener.
Make sure you read that article.
Point 1. All of this is perfectly logical. China goes into "pick the low hanging fruit" mode for "lost territory" and goes back into Empire Building.
ReplyDeletePoint 2. Fighting a proxy war with China is the most likely outcome for the US to protect US interests, the same way we've been arming Taiwan for decades, and working with India as well.
Point 3. Russia is the wildcard here. If the US wants to curb Chinese Empire building, Russia has to gain something from the outcome to support US interests. There is no way to get that without giving something. The key to this is to convince the Russians that China is a bigger rival than the US. I don't know if we have anyone smart enough to do the diplomacy needed for that one.
Point 4. In the long run, none of the geography mentioned matters very much. Unless South Korea or Japan gets pulled into the conflict the US would have very little recourse for intervention. If North Korea attacks south as the Chinese attack East into Taiwan, that would be a perfect storm for the US. I don't know if the Norks are willing to be the Chinese feint for a larger land grab though.
Point 5. This assumes that the Communist Party maintains the a consistent course over a long period. Since the death of Mao, we've seen the Chinese Communists re-invent themselves several times and try different methods to achieve different political and economic goals.
Point 6. The Air Sea battle plan is totally inadequate to protect either Southern Tibet or Outer Mongolia.
Point 7. If the Chinese force Hong Kong into the greater sphere of Chinese politics and regulation, they will kill the goose that lays the golden egg. So far China has been happy to have "special economic zones" set up for all sorts of purposes, but that may or may not change in the future.
Really right now I see the answers in the political realm to avoid this sort of future, but if politics fails, then politics by other means is the only recourse.
great analysis but the Senkaku island dispute is concerning. we call it Okinawa and have a huge military presence there. if they attack then its the US vs. China and all bets are off. thankfully its further down the list and all pretense that China isn't a threat will be off the map for anyone with common sense.
Deleteequally disturbing is how thorough this author is. he wants to start an insurgency in India to reclaim territory? up arm Pakistan so that India is distracted so China can do a blitz attack? pretty interesting stuff>
Solomon
DeleteSo called Senkaku Islands area peripheral islands of Taiwan and not Okinawa. Furthermore, everybody else calls it Diaoyu Islands as it has been known for hundreds of years.
The fact of matter is that Diaoyu Islands belong to Taiwan and should be returned to Taiwan. China would accept this settlement as it claims Taiwan in theory.
As for Okinawa, it too was a sovereign kingdom of its own and should be allowed to choose its own fate.
As for the Chinese blitz attack on India, it is impossible to do because the battleground is Himalayas, not even choppers can fly effectively in the altitude and weather of the Himalayas.
i am constantly amazed by the thinking in that part of the world. and quite frankly for the first time i am wondering about your nationality.
DeleteJapan has a solid claim on both those territories and only in Asia would someone refer to kingdoms that existed centuries ago and have long since passed away as still being legitimate.
as for the naming of the islands, its a chinese article and i used the preferred chinese naming.
IIRC the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are on the same bit of continental shelf as Taiwan, so if the usual internationally accepted methods of working out which little rocky outcrop belongs to whom are used, then Taiwan gets them.
DeleteChina is making all the fuss, so Taiwan is staying quiet. I've wondering about this as it seems that if Taiwan made a legitimate play for the islands in via a UN managed process, then China would - in the long run - win anyway. Don't they see Taiwan as part of China?
As for any Chinese claim in the South China Sea? Pure BS. They are dreaming and merely playing regional bully.
OK@!!!! you guys are killing me on my global geography. which of these islands is okinawa. they talked about senkaku and reyaku....one of those is suppose to have US Marines on them right????
Deleteadditionally it doesn't make any sense if we're talking about Taiwanese territory. if thats the case then China wins those back if they can crush the Taiwanese.
one more thing about them. i love their Marine Corps. they're hard. but i've read too many times that the society is thoroughly penetrated by the chinese. is that true?????
Solomon
DeleteMy dislike of China does not change historical facts. The fact is that the Diaoyu Islands were fishing ground for Taiwanese fishermen for centuries, until the illegal Japanese annexation during the Sino-Japanese war. Since these islands are peripheral islands of Taiwan, they should have been returned to the Republic of China as per the Potsdam Declaration in the post-war. Taiwanese historical claims and the illegality of Japanese annexation is very strong, so Taiwan has better than 50% chance of a win if the case went to the ICJ, but the Japanese government dodges Taiwan's ICJ challenges claiming that Taiwan was not a state and could not take Japan to the ICJ, and is instead urging China to go to the ICJ because Japan knows that only the Republic of China and not the People's Republic of China has the case to claim it.
Likewise the Ryukyu kingdom was a separate kingdom with its own culture and language prior to the illegal Japanese annexation, much like the Kingdom of Hawaii case. As a historically sovereign nation and should have been freed like the rest of Japanese imperial conquests, Ryukans have as much right to the self-determination as the Scottish have, whom you may know are holding a referendum on independence.
well forgive my ugly american view of the historic context you're placing this in. by rights that would mean that here in the US, Mexico, France, the UK, the Cherokee, Apache, Sioux nations could all make claims to certain parts of this country...and thats just to name a few.
DeleteSolomon
DeleteJapan itself too is not giving up claims on the Southern Kuril Islands and the Liancourt Rocks controlled by Russia and Korea respectively, so you are judging nations by a double standard here. If you think Taiwan/China's claim on the Diaoyu Islands is wrong, then Japan's claims on the Southern Kurils and the Liancourt Rocks are also wrong. Instead, Japan's current nationalist government is doubling on the budget to promote those non-Japan controlled islands as Japanese territories internationally.
do u think that okinawa would leave japan????
DeleteSome interesting bits I might add.
DeleteThe Taiwanese/Chinese name "Diaoyu Island" means fishing island, reflecting the history of Taiwanese fishing activity around the islands for centuries.
The Japanese name "Senkaku Island" is the direct Japanese translation of the English name "Pinnacle Islands", a name given by the British Royal Navy in 1884. So Japan became aware of the "Pinnacle Islands" from the British naval map. This is how strong Japan's historical claims to the Diaoyu Islands really is, that they discovered this unknown islands from a British navigation map.
Solomon
DeleteThat decision is upto Okinawan residents themselves. The US actually held that referendum prior to returning to Japan, but Japan was massively campaining around that time promising that all the US bases would be gone if Okinawa left the US administrative control and returned to Japan. However, the US bases in Okinawa doubled after the return because Japan began to push out unwanted US bases from its mainland off to Okinawa, so Okinawans were victimized by both Americans and Japanese twice, not counting the Imperial Japan's order on all Okinawans to commit suicide to avoid the US captivity.
Anyhow, it maybe too late for Okinawa to go independent now, because the Okinawan economy depends too much on the US military presence and the tourism from Japan nowadays. But there is always the dream.
Historical evidence?
Delete"...Chinese navigators and fishermen had known about “the Fishing Islands” since the 15th century or earlier, and Qing-era Taiwan government documents indicate that the islands, though never settled by the Chinese, were loosely administered from Taiwan. China never claimed the nearby Ryukyus, but 17th-century Chinese sources suggest that China considered the Diaoyu islands to be separate from the Ryukyu chain, mentioning as they do a maritime boundary between them at a place called Black Water Trench (this trench is marked on modern maps). However, other sources assert that the islands were a part of the old Ryukyu Kingdom, and it seems the Okinawans knew about them, and fished their waters, even earlier than the Chinese..."
http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/15/history-wars-a-long-view-of-asias-territorial-disputes/
Chinese records are so contradictory and for that unreliable that based on them the islands belong to Taiwan that was invaded and anexed by China or belong to then Ryuku AKA Okinawa invaded and anexed by Japan.
It don't help their credibility that both Taiwan and China don't claimed the islands until oil and gas was discovered around the islands. There is official chinese maps that put the islands as part of Japan territory up to their very late claim. Or the fact that no chinese or taiwanesse never lived there but japenese indid lived and worked there.
My opinion? If they think that they have "solid" case they should take it to the ICJ.
"...That decision is upto Okinawan residents themselves..."
Why you make it sound like we are not allowing them to decide?
Independence party of the Ryukuans.
"...On August 15, 2005, Chōsuke Yara, a president of the T-shirt store called Alice T-shirt Center, resumed the party, making himself as a new party leader. Nuka became an honorable party leader. Yara became the candidate of the 2006 Okinawa Prefectural Governor election, but failed with 6220 votes, or 0.93% of the entire votes. Critics believed this is because the vast majority of Okinawans think the independence is unrealistic. *** Less than 1% of the popular vote. Any excuse is a good one for a poor showing...."
http://thediplomat.com/2013/05/17/why-japan-should-ignore-chinas-okinawa-provocation/comment-page-3/#comments
"...Anyhow, it maybe too late for Okinawa to go independent now, because the Okinawan economy depends too much on the US military presence and the tourism from Japan nowadays. But there is always the dream..."
Like native americans tribes living in indian reservations dreaming with kick the eurpean, african and asian inmigrants out of the US and get back their lands. Or maybe the original native taiwanese can dream with kick out their islands the Han that invaded them.
My opinion? Okinawans have the option of negotiate economic help from China and a treaty assuring them that the PLA is not going to invade them in exchange declare independence and close the US bases. For China is a good deal because then they can invade Taiwan with less interference from the US-Japan alliance. But looking how the CCP backstabed the soviets, the vietnamese and the indians I sincerely doubt that this is a good idea for the okinawans in the long term. If the okinawans really want to be independient then they should think and work hard for make their economy strong and independient even if it take genereatiosn to get there instead of just "dreaming". Or just be poor but independient, It was the same in Canada years ago with the separatists, in the end they decided that a secession will make them poor so the the majority give up the idea. In democracies people can make choices, The Taiwanese make their choices too, they rather let the US and China decide their legal status instead of fight to death for their independence, after all they get money from the US and China. Is not that they don't have other choice, is that they don't want to pay the price.
Creepy. I wonder how this article went over with the readers over there or what people think of that publication and author. I'd like to think we could dismiss this as some jingoistic baloney on their part but like I mentioned I just don't know enough about the chinese attitude toward this author or the magazine this was published in. We can't just dismiss this. We need to ensure we have strong enough conventional forces to deter this sort of expansion. If not we run the risk of India and Pakistan and Russia going nuclear in the mess this guy wants to stir up. Also where is this guy pulling some of these territorial claims out of, if you think that your country need the land then whatever but the claims he makes to legitimize it are just goofy. By his logic America has a right to all the lands that all our ancestors travelled here from, regardless of how long disconnected we are from them. Lets see, so for Americans that includes Europe, Africa, Asia... pretty much everywhere but Antarctica. But you know .... I DO like the cold a lot more than the heat..... I bet that means that I have some Antarctic Ancestry too!
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese made a play for Taiwan before, and American F-86's did damn good against Mig15 and Mig17s. The goal isn't necessarily to stop China from being able to seize Taiwan, but make Taiwan able to hit above its weight class, and hard. Pretty soon that will mean better RADARs more than anything else.
ReplyDeleteSome issues that I think the author has not taken into account:
ReplyDelete1.) It assumes the number of nuclear weapon capable of nations will remain India and Russia. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan all have the technological capability to develop nukes if they so choose. The reason they have not is because they enjoy the protection of the US nuke umbrella and have opted not to do so. Should they decide to do so, even clandestinely, then China would face different circumstances. Do they lose Beijing or Shanghai to take a few islands?
2.) author assumes that the nation-states it will fight will be isolated and won't seek alliances while China marches against its enemies singly (apart from the US). What if South Korea and Japan ally? What if India and Vietnam ally? What if Japan and India ally? What if Russia, Mongolia and India ally? What if a larger network of India, Russian, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Vietnam all join together with support from Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, and the US?
3. Author assumes Chinese population will blindly support such wars or a massive defense budget. What if internal pressure forces more funds devoted to internal development of China? What if internal ethnic divisions become more pronounced (Tibet, Uighurs, Mongolians) start to become more violent, with or without external support from India, Russia, Islamists? What if internal factions supported by a burgeoning bourgeoisie organizes and demand political reform to reflect the economic reform?
4 author assumes Europe won't support Russia. What if Europe and Russia resolve their mistrust and Russian can turn to face China as its primary threat. What if Euro dollars and military technology are helping Russia in exchange for reliable Russian petro products?
5 Ignores the increasing influence of India. What if hundreds of Indian Tejas fighters are sold to Vietnam, Phillipines, Taiwan? or Ships? India, too, will begin to enjoy economy of scale savings and this will expand to the defense sector. Since India is not concerned with being shut out of China's economy like the US, Japan, Europe, it becomes the most independent nation and can begin to supply defense technology and platforms to China's rivals.
6 Assumes Chinese economic growth will continue free of recession/depression or that investment will continue. Many Western nations are coming to realize China rips of intellectual technology so why manufacture there? What if they start moving to Vietnam? Indonesia?
The author thinks other nations are rather stupid. Taiwan is possible neglecting other consequenzes. Mongolia would lean to Russia and Moscow is located within Europa. I don't know how well Chinese missiles aim therefor the rest of Europa would not be neutral at all. The Spratley Island are claimed by several nations. So invading Vietnam won't help. China Achilles' heel is maritim traffic. Any nation in the region with submarines can block the straits. How long can China stand without supply of oil? There is a reason why Taiwan always wanted some German submarines. Somewhere an unsuspicious ship to rearm the submarines and no oil tanker will see China for a few years.
DeleteYou mean the Tejas that is 20 or so years behind schedule? That one?
Deletethe supposed Mig-21 replacement that has missed IOC dates so many times it is almost a national embarrassment?
The Mk. 2 version will be using GE F414 engines and Israeli radars. Not much export potential there.
Very interesting. The second mention of the 2020 year re: Formosa this past week. One Taiwanese, one Indian.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching the so called free West welching out on the democracy that is Taiwan for 20 years now. Do not expect any internationalist (Communist) bent, US administration or the "Free West", to do anything other than hand Taiwan over on a platter to the ChiCommslaver state.
With Internationalists/MAOists/Commies in the current and any forthcoming US administration expect heavy casualties. (That's why the current phukkwittery in your command, procurement and armed force morale, Soviet purges circa 1930s spring to mind?)
Anyway I was researching some old articles relating to the total manipulation in the global gold market, over the past decades, recently and what heaved into view? Only the postulation that the Reds in Peking got bought off by Nixon/Kissinger through a massive, off balance sheet, gold shipment because the HomicidalPsychoState promised to keep their MaoistCommie noses out of other peoples business in the Far East for 50 years.
Looks like everything is on schedule to me.
To be honest I think the Chinese would go for the Spratly Islands before they go for Taiwan. Or I'm betting that they would take both simultaneously. The Spratlys have gas and oil reserves that are key for supplying an Empire building war machine. The Spratly Islands are also locating in a strategic spot that would greatly benefit China and give them far more clout over Southeast Asia in every way. Taiwan has virtually nothing in terms of resources other than a whole new population to control that is currently well supplied with arms from the US. The Spratly's are also comparatively less guarded and would be much easier to take. Bottomline, the Spratly's have a lot more to offer than Taiwan.
ReplyDeleteAndrew
DeleteActually the Spratly Islands make a bad battleground for China because it is far away from China and US bases are closer.
Taiwan on the other hand can be captured by the PLA if it was willing to accept a heavy toll, but the domestic propaganda value is far greater because China is finally "whole" again.
Also, I am pretty certain that Russia would use nuclear weapons on its own soil rather than let it be taken back by the Chinese. I have no evidence to support that claim, but that is just the feeling I get when I talk to Russians and when the Russian government ever mentions the idea of giving up territory to anyone.
ReplyDeleteMy take on the article
ReplyDeleteThe 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025) : A 50% probability of this happening, and the US may not be able to stop the Chinese invasion because the Chinese are so determined to take it at any cost. Even more troubling is the fact that the Taiwanese politians think that a mainland takeover is inevitable and has a fatalistic view on its national defense, that whatever they do now is unable to stop the communist troops. At least the Taiwanese president drills on flying out of Taiwan in the backseat of a fighter jet taking off from highway to seek a US asylum.
The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030) : This is the war that the US could win because the battleground favors the US unlike Taiwan. China could take some, but at a high cost.
The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040) : A 0% probability of happening, because this will escalate into a nuclear war.
The 4th War: “Reconquest” of Diaoyu Island [Senkaku] and Ryukyu Islands (Year 2040 to 2045) : This war has less than 10% chance of happening, but there is no chance of China holding onto Diaoyu Islands. It will always ends in Japan's retaking because China faces the world's No. 1 and No. 2 navies combined in a naval war.
The 5th War: Unification of Outer Mongolia (Year 2045 to 2050) : This isn't possible under the present UN system because China has diplomatically recgonized Mongolia and it isn't legal for one UN state to permanently occupy another UN state. The big difference between Taiwan and Mongolia is that China has recgonized Mongolia as a sovereign country but not for Taiwan.
The 6th War: Taking back of lands lost to Russia (Year 2055 to 2060) : A 0% probability of happening, because this will escalate into a nuclear war.
Again, why are we paying attention to an inflaming article written by an unknown nutcase? He is a typical troll you can easily find on many pro-China forums. If you understand Chinese, plz visit the site that posted the original article and read the comments below, most are negative toward the author. I am sure that majority of ordinary Chinese folks don't buy into this crap.
ReplyDeletethe website i grabbed the article from is Indian. of course they would be anti=chinese but the article came from a chinese newspaper that has strong support inside china.
Deletethe majority of the chinese people do buy this crap.
Lol... So, this is definitely a fan boy article. For starters, it's written on some 2nd tier Hong Kong website, so for starters it doesn't even remotely represent a mainland Chinese, much less official view. Actually publications worth quoting from is the people's daily, and maybe if you're really keen the global times, which is their equivalent of Fox news.
DeleteInteresting read nonetheless. It just shows that there are some pretty delusional arm chair generals out there.
what do you base all that on?
DeleteBased on the fact I lived in China from 2000-2008 for work, and I picked up the language while I was there. I don't claim to be a China expert, but this is just too obvious not to pick up on
DeleteAnyway, you don't have to take my word for it. Just read a bit of sun tzu's art of war and you'll realise that this article flies against every basic principle of china's grand strategy.
i've read the art of war and the prince...several times each. the rough outlines don't sound far fetched. as a matter of fact its in line with some of the actions on the high seas that have occurred between China and its neighbors.
Deleteyou state that this is an obvious fabrication but the facts state otherwise. china's economy is slowing. it needs to rattle the cage to keep the masses focused on outside issues instead of the continuing mess at home.
i see this as valid. why do you consider the publication second rate.
I used to read Chinese newspapers to learn the language. A Hong Kong based newspaper for starters would only have a local readership (i.e. hk).
Deletesecondly, this is inconsistent with art of war since the analysis assumes military objectives have a political motive. china embarking on such a path can only lead to economic collapse and political isolation. sun tzu referred to war as the last resort when all other political means have been exhausted. he spoke of winning without fighting as the highest ideal.
as an example, if china wanted taiwan back it need merely wait. it is just a matterof time. as chinas political system becomes more mature, taiwan will have less reason to remain independent. their economy is already completely dependent on china for example.
finally, to sidetrack a bit, china has a concept of comprehensive national strength. this is a measure of hard powers like economy and military, as well as soft powers like international political and cultural appeal. wars undermine comprehensive national strength. A strong CNS can influence other countries to bend to your will without fighting a war. the threat alone or economic sanction, military action, international condemnation would be enough. this is not unlike what we had back before bush and obama destroyed much of our credibility (e.g. north korea and iran clearly no longer take us as seriously)
well war is politics. the art of war stated that winning without war was ideal but never ruled out war. additionally we aren't living in ancient times and the communist party must remain in power while keeping their hybrid economy going. additionally globalization has proven to be a failure and the economic issues being faced by most western democracies just shows that the scheme is unraveling....
Deletelast and i don't direct this at you, but i notice that those that want to cling to the status quo are always china apologist and ignore all the bad behavior from the middle kingdom.
additionally an arms race is in progress in the Pacific because of a rapidly rearming and expansionist china. that can't be denied.
i call it normalcy bias. everyone wants everything to be as is so badly that they fail to recognize warning signs of danger. with china i see nothing but danger.
Honestly, the biggest issue with china is what happens as more and more Chinese realize the immense levels of corruption within their various independent governments. Some of the stories I've heard from friends, some of which actually work for and in those governments are just flat out scary. China is rapidly devolving into a feudalistic government. Each region is basically being run now as a loose vassal at best kingdom.
DeleteJames W has the essence of it -- he thinks Chinese, not Western -- that's important.
ReplyDeleteIn any case these issues shouldn't concern Americans. Starting with the first, Taiwan, it has always been a part of China. In fact, for twenty years, to the U.S., it WAS China. After 1949 there was a national legislature in Taipei with reps from all China provinces. It was a charade, but still Taipei claims to be the Republic of China. As James W suggests, they will work it out. Spratleys? Big whoop.
Relax, like a Chinese person. For 5,000 years this has been their philosophy. China doesn't interfere in other countries' internal affairs. It has more refined methods, as James W suggests. It isn't the Western way, which is to face a problem and act on it.
Sun Tzu - wise warriors first win, and then go to war, and stupid warrors first go to war and then hope to win.
Not this Taiwan BS again. Taiwan depending on what part of history you want to look at should be completely independent, part of china, part of japan, etc. Taiwan has not always been part of China, and anyone saying otherwise is either ignorant of history or flat out lying. The only claim that China has on Taiwan is that on more than one occasion, they have invaded and taken over the island. That's it. And Japan can make that exact same claim. Neither has an ordained right to Taiwan.
DeleteAs far as China not interfering in other countries internal affairs, this is also not supported historically. The various incarnations of "China" have interfered and taken over numerous countries, its how it got so big in the first place.
The reality is China is on a bit of a nationalistic streak using all types of double-speak to justify its claims, none of which are any better than any other claims.
I guess if Taipei pretends to be China, the "Republic of China", then there is no question that Taiwan is a part of China.
Delete"Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, is a state in East Asia. Originally based in mainland China, the Republic of China now governs the island of Taiwan, which makes up over 99% of its territory."
The PRC has not interfered in any other country in recent history, and its claim to the
Senkaku/Diayou islands is historically supported.
Only if, by historically supported, you mean they had to pay china tribute or be invaded. The reality is china was rather imperialistic before imperialism was cool in the west. Their only claim is that they bullied neighboring nations into paying tribute to china, which isn't much of a claim, since by that claim standard mainland china is Portuguese, Spanish, British, Russian, etc.
DeleteAnd just because Taiwan was invaded by a group from China doesn't mean it is china. I could call myself "god" tomorrow, it doesn't mean I am actually god. Again, all the china territory claims amount to little more than at some point we threatened someone or invaded someone and so they should be part of us forever. Literally by the standards china uses, china cannot actually be part of china.
James W makes some good points. The article may have been written for a local audience in Hong Kong, but it makes a pretty logical case about what might happen if the Communist government of China goes into an Empire Building phase.
ReplyDeleteHowever, James W doesn't address the evidence that supports the article. We see China building up military capacity, so it is logical that at some point in the future they will use that capacity for some offensive operation. I don't care what someone says about my "western mind" not understanding the Chinese, I do understand that no nation builds a military to not use it.
As far as India being splintered by internal factions, that is nothing new. India has been fighting a Maoist insurgency in the rural areas for decades now, but at this point they are as about as relevant as the FARC or PIRA to the national government. China would have to massively up the anti and provide overt support to those factions which would likely escalate to another clash in the Himalayas.
The problem with predicting the future is that no one has a perfect crystal ball. However, dismissing this prediction as "not chinese" always falls under the "no true Scotsman" fallacy. China is increasingly an international and cosmopolitan society, and you can bet that they've read their Clausewitz as well as Sun Tzu.
Whether China used its military for conquest or not is hard to say. It could simply be a case of "modern china" not wanting a repeat of the situation that occurred in the 1800's.
DeleteAs far as the mountainous parts of India, they've gladly accept the heavily subsidized smuggled gas and other sundries but they want to be part of China even less than they want to be part of India. At this point, they has a somewhat comfortable situation in India where each pretty much stays out of each others way. And neither China nor India believe a war in that area is particularly viable. Its a beautiful if brutal landscape with many of the passes being well above 15,000 ft. The people there for the most part like the status quo with Indian societial normals and self determinacy and cheep subsidized goods being smuggled through the Chinese border, but when push comes to shove, my impression is they'll give the middle finger to China. But that's just my general impression from having traveled a lot in that region. There was a time 30+ years ago where they might of been more open to a Chinese invasion, but since then the dynamic with India as a whole has changed significantly with India. Now many there view India as a nice protective umbrella that lets them live how they want, study what they want, and funnels opportunity and resources to let them maintain whatever way of life they want.
geez.
Deletei'm getting a mix between history and todays reality on this subject.
as far as India and China going at it. HELL YES. they've had so many border incursions by Chinese troops into India that its become a problem. the Indian people are upset at the Chinese and almost all of them believe a war is coming. additionally the talk about China not going to war is mysterious to me. i've watch recent events and the Chinese Navy has engaged in bully tactics on the high seas with Vietnam, S.Korea. Japan and the Philippines.
it is amazing that all these aggressive moves are being overlooked in this debate.
The border skirmishes along the line of assumed control between India and China are nothing new. Those have been going on for almost ever. Having actually been to parts of the line of assumed control, there's not really much there that distinguishes it from either of the countries. The local people on both sides cross it all the time almost as if it didn't exist. It is almost impossible for either side to fully monitor it considering the terrain it is in. Imagine a border as big as the US-Mexico border, now put it at 12-20 thousand feet with roads and trails all over the place and a very sparse local population and hundreds of miles away from reliable power. I've been to Pangong Tso which is the large lake that crosses the border, and driven through many of the so called roads (nothing like waiting for them to grade the road so it is wide enough for a Indian built land cruiser to use) to get there. medium and heavy mechanized units are definitely out. Any war fought in the region is going to be infantry on infantry beyond the summer months, more soldiers are likely to die from the elements than from enemy fire. OTOH, if you ever get the chance to go to Ladakh, I highly encourage you to go. Its an incredible landscape up there, varying from a perfectly viable place to fake the moon landings to beautiful and lush valleys with by far the best Apricots in the world. Everyone is friendly and the muslims, Sikhs, and Buddhists get along well. And if you ever get there, you have to try the butter tea, a small cup lasts a whole day!
DeleteSo could there be another war along the line of assumed control? Sure, but its unlikely, neither side really wants to fight in that environment.
And yes china is making aggressive moves, but they so far are fairly calculated not to break out into war. I believe that china will keep pushing things as much as possible but will not engage in open warfare because of a realistic fear that it would ignite a united front against them, which is exactly what they don't want. They will use the fear of war as much as possible to get what they want but won't go over the line unless the other side crosses it.
China is a pussy cat in offensive capability -- its growing military strength is defensive, based on US military proximity and US threats.
DeleteYou might want to read this: http://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/singleitem/collection/p4013coll3/id/3027/rec/87
ReplyDeleteIt is from the SAMS at Levenworth. Not offical, but it is going around the Army.
from the link
Delete"China has not yet shown any intention of conducting strategic military aggression against other nations."
Related: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-we-save-taiwan-9257
ReplyDelete"China is doing so, the report announced, by building up a formidable set of strike assets—such as advanced missiles and aircraft, amphibious capabilities, defenses against counterstrikes, and the associated enabling infrastructure. These will allow the People’s Republic, the report judged, not only to do extensive damage to Taiwan (something it can already do), and not only to mount a protected and sustained amphibious flotilla and airborne assault, but also to block any attempt by a foreign power (read: the United States) to intervene and defend and/or recover the island."