Many thanks to Purplelogs for this link. I didn't have these guys on my radar!
via TNI.
This document, which represents the Taiwan military’s official statement of the island’s current security environment and national-defense policy, pronounced that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would have “the comprehensive military capability to deter any foreign aid that comes to Taiwan’s defense by 2020.” China is doing so, the report announced, by building up a formidable set of strike assets—such as advanced missiles and aircraft, amphibious capabilities, defenses against counterstrikes, and the associated enabling infrastructure. These will allow the People’s Republic, the report judged, not only to do extensive damage to Taiwan (something it can already do), and not only to mount a protected and sustained amphibious flotilla and airborne assault, but also to block any attempt by a foreign power (read: the United States) to intervene and defend and/or recover the island.Absolutely spot on.
Taiwan gets it.
China is a threat and peaceniks, doves, China apologist, industrialist, corporations and anyone else I missed can no longer deny the obvious. Not only is China a peer competitor, but they're a threat to our allies in that region. The sooner we accept the truth, the sooner we can start making credible moves to counter them.
It's a commercial push for more military sales to Taiwan, fighters and submarines.
ReplyDeletewe have a nation that wants more US weapons to defend themselves against China yet we won't selll them any because it might offend China! what is a better deterrent? i can't think of one. we beg countries to spend more on defense and Taiwan wants to take their money, spend it on our stuff and yet we won't let them.
Deleteif you can think of a better idea i'll listen.
The US can either work with China as a partner or as an enemy. The latter won't work. Military sales to Taiwan must be handled with this in mind. There are other factors to consider:
Delete*ROC (Taiwan) is not a nation.
*Recent news: China and Taiwan plan to set up a cross-strait equity exchange center in the mainland’s southeastern province of Fujian as relations between the two sides improve.
*also: There are other signals of strengthening links between the two sides. China and Taiwan can consider starting military exchanges to ease concerns over military security, the official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday, citing a summary from a cross-strait non-governmental peace forum.
*google: Flights from Taipei City, Taiwan (TPE) to Beijing, China (all airports)
Nonstop flights: 4–5 per day, 3h 15m duration
*The US has fought China before, and couldn't win, which would be true again if the US wants war. Partnership is better. It's not worth one American life to be involved in a conflict between two Chinese factions. Not one.
*It's the Chinese way to work things out. It's central to Taoism, The Way.
*I served in Taiwan for two years as an advisor to the ROC army, so I'm an expert on this matter. :-))
Don Bacon
Delete> *ROC (Taiwan) is not a nation.
Surely it is, just because the Chinese commies say otherwise does not undo its nationhood.
Having said that, I do blame Taiwanese people for not having declared its independence while it could. Maybe Chiang Kai Sek could have simply declared as such while he was in power, but he still had the vision of a triumphant return to the mainland with this nationalist army.
"The US can either work with China as a partner or as an enemy. The latter won't work. Military sales to Taiwan must be handled with this in mind"
DeleteWe should treat them in accordance how they treat us. Building their military around defeating ours unfortunately precludes the idea we can treat them as a friend unless we just want to be stupid. This is their wrong, not ours. (They have no justification for their military build.arm race, they have supposedly 'renounced' violence against taiwan and there is clearly nothing that can threaten their security)
"*ROC (Taiwan) is not a nation."
It practically is, regardless don't we base our moral justification around supporting democracy against auhtoritanism? And you want to turn tail here?
"Recent news: China and Taiwan plan to set up"
Has nothing to do with us selling them weapons if they want they and supporting their independence. If Taiwan ever decides to merge with the PRC that is another matter entirely, but is not currently relevant.
"*google: Flights from Taipei City"
Same as above.
"*The US has fought China before, and couldn't win, which would be true again if the US wants war."
I. Us did not really fight China, it fought an isolated war in Korea where China sent an expeditionary force, the fact this is close to china belies the nature of this war as limited and isolated, and just yielded all the benefits to the Chinese of easy logistics.
II. Us did not want war, and does not know, but in both Korea and now in the SCS should not ignore authoritarian expansionism unless you just want to return to isolationism, why not just have done since since 1940 and save ourselves the past 6 decades of effort? Because its damn wrong on very moral principal we supposedly share, at least I do.
Any war with China will be a result of Chinese aggression.
"*It's the Chinese way to work things out"
Not all Cinese are taoists.
"*I served in Taiwan for two"
Impressive, but flawed opening statesmen's and poorly framed things like 'us wanting war' are the flaws in your arguments, not your knowledge of taiwan.
Taiwanese have a fatalistic view on their present condition; when the mainland communists come for them, there is nothing to stop them. Taiwan's like a terminally-ill patient who knows its days are numbered and is trying to make the most out of last few remaining days. This is why the Taiwanese government abolished the conscription and turned to a smaller all volunteer force and the defense budget is stagnant while all other countries in the region are in an arms race.
ReplyDeleteTaiwan's last chance for independence was back in 2008, when Taiwan could have declared the Republic of Taiwan and China would have been unable to respond because of the Beijing Olympics but the President Ma and KMT let this once in a 100 year chance pass. And the Taiwanese people are responsible because they put Ma into office fully knowing where he stood on the mainland relations and on the issue of Taiwan's independence.
There is nothing the US or anyone can do to help a people who don't have the will power to defend their own country.
Seems like this view hinges on things like abolishment of conscription and lack of growth military budget.
DeleteInstead, conscription is just not the norm anymore for many countries especially ones with per capita like Taiwan. As for the lack of growth in the budget, 1) few are willing to sell them arms, 2) unlike the rest of china's neighbors there is already justification, casus belli, for China to declare war. They don't need to aggravate that by building up senselessly when they aren't going to win the arms race.
I see the taiwanese taking the prudent middle road, using economic ties and avoiding open provocation to tame the beast, to reduce the threat level and benefit of attacking Taiwan.
Just seems like there is no reason for Taiwan to try and change the status quo in response to China's rise, they are playing it cool.
The only way Taiwan can defend itself is if they got a good Missile defense system and start building their own submarines. They should at the very least, talk to Russia on buying the blueprints or the rights to build Kilo class SSK's A squadron of Kilo class SSK's would make life very difficult for China to cross the straits. Imagine having a squadron of SSK's with two patrolling the straits and two in the Philippine sea. I can see Taiwan getting a squadron of Russian Kilo class SSK's with Western weapons and electronics. The other option is for the US to help Taiwan build the Barbel class SSK for them. That would mean the US giving Taiwan the basic know how on how to build the Barbel class SSK. So when the US is done, Taiwan can build their own SSK's based on the Barbel class SSK.
ReplyDeleteAs for their Surface navy, they need to get Aegis or Aegis like technology onto their Kidd class destroyers. Even sell the blueprints to build Kidd class Destroyers, and Perry Class Frigates. They would also need to upgrade their SSM to SM-3 Standard.
As for their Air Force, they need to put more emphasis on Missile and Air defense. They need to put more into THAAD and BMD like technology. Their F-16's seriously need to be updated to block 50/52 standard.
Nicky
DeleteWhile that all sounds good, the reality is that Taiwan's national defense budget is too small to afford what you list. Furthermore, the US won't even sell them to Taiwan. Just take a look at the F-16 saga.
The countries that are determined to battle China are actively engaged in a arms race and it is indeed quite exciting to see all the new weapons development/purchase programs in Japan and Korea, including 5th gen A2A fighter jets, aircraft carriers, new destroyer types, ballistic missiles, SAMs, supersonic antiship missiles, new 3,500 ton class subs, and not a day goes by without some new weapons program announcement.
You hardly ever hear that coming from Taiwan, aside a handful of new munition programs. Taiwan is sitting out of the Great Asian arms race.
Oh, another bombshell dropped today is that the F119 engine is being offered for the KFX program by PW(F135 is not on the offer as its doesn't meet the performance requirement). The other American contender is a 33,000 lbs variant of the F110-GE based on the latest CFM56 core. Single American engines are going up against preferred twin EJ2X0 set up.
DeleteThe export version of F119 is being treated like selling out one's soul to the Satan. Sticking it in the KFX will mean the KFX will now have an F-22 like flight performance including supercruise, but swallowing this poison pill means the KFX becomes non-exportable unless it is to countries like Israel.
Problem is giving sensitive technology to Taiwan at this point seems dangerous. This is the downside to their carrots approach to china.
DeleteWhich is why I think Taiwan should make a Deal with Russia on Kilo class SSK's and the US would finance the deal.
DeleteWhat would be the economic backlash if China attacks Taiwan unprovoked? Stocks would crash globally, UN sanctions against China would slow down their banks, US would probably put some sort of referendum on US companies operating in China to close up shop (same with the EU, Japan, SK), trade in the region would cease, China would become isolated and their economy would crash because it is so heavily dependent on exports, and lastly, there would be a US blockade in the South Pacific. Just sayin...
ReplyDeleteThe US has tip toed around the problem of China's military ambitions and the fact there is a corrupt authoritarian ultra-nationalist regime in power for far too long. Policy should have been made more responsive as far back as 2001.
ReplyDelete(wouldn't it be a grand conspiracy if China had somehow aided AQ so as to cover for itself? The memory of reports of a certain Chinese official replaying the 9/11 videos with glee comes to mind, and that supposedly a chinese report predicted such an attack)
Unfortunately, it seems like no democrat government is going to deal with this forcefully and the idea of a republican getting elected right now seems alien. (even then I really don't think the republicans have ever seemed so serious about China either, seems to me they say as much as they need to to make themselves appear just tougher on China than the democrats and that is about it)
US needs to wake up and realize even if they don't want to play cold war with CHina, China still is and already has been playing since 1950 whether we are at the table or not...
While I'm quite willing to trade L.A., San Francisco, Las Vegas, Dearborn Michigan, Chicago, NYC and Washington D.C. for Taiwan I do not want to swap any other American City for the same.
ReplyDeleteTaiwan is after all Chinese, with Chinese people living there.
Once a Japanese Formosa is now an Island off the Chinese mainland.
The Taiwanese have the choice, being absorbed by China intact or being absorbed by China as a smoking ruined wasteland populated by Chinese soldiers and a dwindling population of Taiwanese.
We do not need to add American dead to the Debris left over in Taiwan nor US citizens in bombed out cities CONUS.
It's Taiwan's choice not ours.
let's not draw anymore red lines we will not or cannot defend.
Because, Washington will not do any defending beyond what it absolutely has to defend, the US will reenforce success by the Taiwan military but being socialist communist liberals can be counted on to allow a defeated Taiwan go the way of Egypt by actually helping the Chinese forces take over the place because it "feels right" to let Chinese have what belongs to China.
A war with China will have the left fighting for the Chinese against the Taiwanese.
Obama is not China's enemy, but, China is Obama's enemy, Barack just doesn't believe it yet, or, doesn't care.
That's why I say Taiwan needs to realize they are Chinese and Taiwan is China, make a separate peace and hope for what Hong Kong got instead of Tiananmin square.
Under Obama we cannot even think about a battle much less a war, he is not and his chosen Military generals and Admirals are just not up to fighting and we would see needless wasted American lives and material ships and aircraft sent into battle by feckless politicians who just will not fight, not fight to win and will run away at the first condemnation at the UN.
The US cannot and the population will not fight with China unless and maybe not even then the mainland is attacked directly.
WILL: A republican is a democrat not seduced by evil and not quite totally brain dead but still too stupid to save itself or win any elections.
ReplyDeleteThe republican's cannot win a fight with the loyal opposition democrat party how could the republican's win any fight with China?
No, lets NOT talk about liberdunces, that is just people who don't agree with the other two but don't have a clue what to do.
The US punish everyone in the chain of command for urinating on dead guerrilla fighters in a bitter and no mercy war with Islamic terrorist.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese are able to drive tanks over protesting college students who are Chinese.
The current administration is unable to fight effectively even with superior military power by being bound hand and foot by JAG and litigation along with an RoE better fitted to Police than military.