Thanks for the document Eric!
Read it and weep.
The Dutch Air Force is about to be out of the expeditionary fighter business because of the F-35. According to the Dutch Air Force, they'll be able to deploy 4. Yeah, count'em. FOUR F-35s. Unfortunately for the US and Dutch the problem doesn't stop there. According to their Auditing Office, they'll in reality be able to deploy FEWER than the already miniscule 4 airplanes being talked about.
The F-35 Program Office can chest thump about lower prices but its beyond obvious that the death spiral is already here. Don't believe me? Go ask the Dutch. They started with a desired buy of 85. Now they're HOPING to get 37. That's more than a 50% decrease in the planned buy.
The weird thing in all this is that the Dutch have been one of our more reliable allies (besides having hot nurses) but we treat them like an enemy with regards to this defense purchase . By demanding that they participate in this program, and by not having the good sense to recommend that they pull out when prices went sideways, we've essential forced one of our good friends to the sidelines in the event of a major war. They simply won't be able to contribute a credible fighter squadron if we asked. Between training and home defense they just can't afford enough F-35's to meet an out of area commitment. They shouldn't feel bad though, cause neither can we.
Read it and weep.
The Dutch Air Force is about to be out of the expeditionary fighter business because of the F-35. According to the Dutch Air Force, they'll be able to deploy 4. Yeah, count'em. FOUR F-35s. Unfortunately for the US and Dutch the problem doesn't stop there. According to their Auditing Office, they'll in reality be able to deploy FEWER than the already miniscule 4 airplanes being talked about.
The F-35 Program Office can chest thump about lower prices but its beyond obvious that the death spiral is already here. Don't believe me? Go ask the Dutch. They started with a desired buy of 85. Now they're HOPING to get 37. That's more than a 50% decrease in the planned buy.
The weird thing in all this is that the Dutch have been one of our more reliable allies (besides having hot nurses) but we treat them like an enemy with regards to this defense purchase . By demanding that they participate in this program, and by not having the good sense to recommend that they pull out when prices went sideways, we've essential forced one of our good friends to the sidelines in the event of a major war. They simply won't be able to contribute a credible fighter squadron if we asked. Between training and home defense they just can't afford enough F-35's to meet an out of area commitment. They shouldn't feel bad though, cause neither can we.
Remember when we thought we won the Cold War because we forced the Soviets to spend beyond their means?Well, Russia has to be laughing their asses off. And they didn't have to do anything. NATO countries acquiring the F35 are disarming themselves to the point of irrelevance. In 2022, if Russian goes to war with Georgia or a Baltic Republic, NATO might be able to muster 20-30 F35s.
ReplyDeleteWhat a fucking joke.
i can't believe i was so late to recognize the cost issues with this program. the early critics talked about the planes performance and that just gets you into a which expert do you want to believe but this cost thing is something else.
Deletei can't imagine why everyone is waking up to the fact that this plane just costs too damn much.
oh and your point about NATO, what we did to Russia and what we're doing to ourselves and allies is spot on. the Chinese and Russians must be laughing their ass off or trying to figure out what our gambit is. i'm sure they can't imagine that we're as stupid as we're behaving.
Augustine's Law in Action.
ReplyDeleteThe Dutch are also getting out of the amphibious warfare business. See:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.defensenews.com/article/20131013/DEFREG01/310130004/Hammond-Budget-Cuts-Could-Mean-Restructuring-UK-Forces
"Between training and home defense they just can't afford enough F-35's to meet an out of area commitment."
ReplyDeleteRegarding NATO mission and Europe's decreasing military spending, going beyond only F-35 financing, there is a kickback from the Afghan experience.
from the Atlantic Council of Canada
The Future of NATO:
"The strategic outlook has changed for NATO countries. In the 21st century, the common defence [was] no longer about the security of the EuroAtlantic region but about dealing with problems worldwide. NATO has responded by taking on a multitude of missions, which in turn has exacerbated longstanding disputes over burden-sharing.
"More consequentially, a division is growing between those who believe NATO’s focus should be the defence of the Euro-Atlantic area and those who see NATO with a broader mandate -- a disagreement over the very purpose of the Alliance not just over how to finance it."
Consider this Solomon:
ReplyDeleteDuring the Could War(1980s) the Dutch air force operated arround 100 F-16s...Portugal was the poorest of the NATO countries and used the FIAT G-91 with Sidewinder missiles to protect our airspace.
Today Portugal is still the poorest country in NATO but operates 40 F-16s!!!!!Our fighter force is BIGGER the the planned dutch force?SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT...
Granted,we will sell 12 to Romania...but we will still keep 28....
The dutch should have gone with the ASH,the Gripen or ,the best option,new build F-16s
its worse than that. we're seeing all these countries get out of the ground combat business to pay for their airforce. the future is bleak. they would have done better buying rafales or typhoons the way this is playing out. we're actually losing a military ally. they'll try but won't be able to help....
DeleteRight you are...guess were did the Portuguese army Leopard II came from....
DeleteFrom the dutch army!It looks like they dont have use or heavy armour...you dont need it if you have the F-35...:)
Well, tanks are big and scary, so the leftists who run most of Western Europe want to get rid of them.
DeleteI've mentioned before, I think this is a reflection of the political leadership on the West and resulting debates regarding use of force. In particular the formula is becoming more and more about use of force + risk + cost + doability.
ReplyDeleteAs Don touched on, this is the West looking at Afghanistan and questioning whether they ever will deploy their own ground forces Out-of-Area. And if the Dutch are the canary in the coal mine, then the answer is no. The political leadership is unwilling to accept casualties so they will never deploy ground forces.
Political leadership will only be willing to operate in a Kosovo or Libya type air-war and that is it. And because air-only wars fail, it means they will effectively take themselves out of picture.
By adopting the F35 and stripping their ground forces, the West has deprived themselves of the tools of intervention which restricts their options and preempts decision-making for subsequent leaders: we aren't getting involved....ever.
and it all has to do with how poorly Afghanistan was managed/led. The West sees that it was a waste of blood, sweat and gold.
the West will retreat behind a missile defense wall and only sally forth with the occasional F35 deployment or armed drones. And that means militarily the political leadership will only send air forces overseas. Gunboat diplomacy at 30000ft. Drop a JDAM or Brimstone or Paveway and 'problem solved'. Force on the cheap.
The occasional flare-up in Mali or maybe a commando raid for the militaries that have that ability, but the West is moribund and defeated. Why anyone thinks NATO has any teeth at all, I will never know.
For the Dutch or Belgians or France or Spain or Italy, there is no threat from anybody so they are defunding their militaries. But for the Baltic nations or those members in Eastern Europe, they worry about Russia.
Nominally Western Europe supports its Allies in the East, but capability-wise they are useless.
European should be happy that their security conditions allow them to disarm. Tell that to major Asia Pacific nations like India, Japan, and Korea each burdened with $250~500 billion arms buying programs to counter Chinese threats.
ReplyDeleteExactly, the only conventional military threat Western Europe needs to worry about is maybe Russia, but they will use Poland as a buffer, and French nukes of the Russians take out Poland. Simple as that.
DeleteWell, it's not like the Dutch were exactly using their AF to begin with. Or much of their armed pension fund, oh, I meant to say military......
ReplyDeleteA teeny little military with 20,000 people isn't going to be much help no matter how man jets or tanks it has.