along those lines-- U.S. Fighter Aircraft Pricing Themselves Out of the Export Market http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=1320
I have an F-20 brochure. Saw it once at Farnborough. Good idea. Had a fast startup to rolling time too. Don't need a lot of range for that AD mission either.
Like selling F-22 to Australia South Korea and Japan? Too bad that the production line is closed. But Taiwan?
"...Taiwan’s modernized E-2 Hawkeye 2000s have hardly arrived, and already a Taiwanese major has sold key details to the Chinese. This is a significant and recurring problem in Taiwan. Hey, why not refuse to sell them lesser F-16C/Ds, and give them F-16s with some of our most advanced radars instead? Oh, wait…"
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/page/6/
"...November 5, 2013: Taiwan recently admitted that it had suffered some serious damage when it discovered that one of its air force officers (identified only as “Major Hao”) sold many technical details of the new E-2K AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft to China. Hao did it for money, and Taiwanese counterintelligence found over a dozen other Chinese intel operatives during the investigation that uncovered the E-2K leaks. Since the E-2K contains mostly American technology and is based on the E-2C use on American aircraft carriers, this intelligence disaster is going to cost America a lot as well. Since China now knows the details of how the E-2 electronics work, they can develop better ways to deceive and disrupt E-2 operations..."
"...May 25, 2012: A Taiwanese Air Force pilot has been suspended from flying and put under investigation because it was found that he was dating a Chinese woman who was a journalist. Taiwan considers (with some accuracy) reporters for Chinese state controlled media as agents for Chinese intelligence agencies. Thus Taiwanese counter-intelligence officials were worried that the pilot was another victim of the frequent Chinese use of sex to obtain secrets from foreign nations. China continues to use "honey trap" (sex scandal) operations with great success. For example, three years ago four Taiwanese government officials were lured to a Chinese red light district and covertly captured on video doing something they could be blackmailed (into spying for China) for..."
"...It’s been less than two years since Taiwan was hit by the worst spying case in half a century, in which Army general Lo Hsien-che was arrested for passing classified military information to Chinese intelligence officers since 2004, in return for payment. In July of the same year, Lo was sentenced to life in prison, but it was hard to contain the damage, especially as doubts remained over how much access he had to the nation’s Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, which Taiwan has been modernizing with U.S. assistance for well over a decade.
This was followed by another case in March the following year, when a captain who worked at a regional operations control center north of Taipei was detained on suspicions that he had passed intelligence to China with help from an uncle who operated a business there. Once again, Taiwan’s early-warning radar systems were the object of the operation, this time targeting the 10-1E “Strong Net” — the nation’s air-defense command and control system — as well as E-2T/E-2K Hawkeye surveillance aircraft. As with the Lo case, there was disagreement as to the level of access he would have had and how damaging the information he provided to Chinese intelligence would be..."
We usually call it Taiwan but they call themselves the Republic of China on Taiwan. So treating Taiwan as a separate country, which it isn't, does get complicated when it's really two sides in an enduring standoff.
Selling the F-35 to Taiwan is a high risk because Taiwan has an extensive network of mainland spies within its military and government.
The lower risk is to sell a portion of USAF T-50(Which is based on combat-ready F/A-50 anyway and will see a F414 engine upgrade for USAF services) to Taiwan as FMS, then Taiwan would convert those "T-50"s back to F/A-50 with a separately supplied conversion kit. All other vendors, such as BAE and Boeing and even the T-50's original vendor KAI cannot do this because of their commercial jet interests and their respective government's diplomacy with China.
This would ensure that the US mainstream fighter jet's secrets aren't exposed to China. But I do have concerns for the proposed AESA avionics upgrade package for Taiwan's F-15 A/Bs, because they are of same configuration as USAF's.
I cannot fault the Pentagon going with the F-16 over the F-20 at all. And it's supposed easier maintenance costs were based on only 1500 hrs of 3 pre-production aircraft which is hardly a comparison to an operational aircraft.
the F-16's unit price sank down to 12mil per copy and thousands were built for all of our allies. Can you imagine a Cold War-era NATO without Norway, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece, Turkey, Spain, Portugal being able to afford the F-16? A tiny nation like the Netherlands eventually fielded over 200 F16s and Belgium ordered 160.
The F-16 was the superior fighter and the Tigershark was really only slightly better at point defense for a couple million less. It made more sense to select and promote the F-16.
F22s would never be sold to Taiwan. The only allies on the short list would have been Israel, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Taiwan is too much of a security risk. even then with the serious maintenance issues the F22 has, how many could afford to sustain their fleets?
While there were concerns over the F-22, I wonder if we could have developed a dumbed-down C-version to produced in greater numbers and also sold to allies. Too bad we'll never find out.
Why would a nation but essentially a souped up F-5E when the could have an F-16 that the USAF was guaranteed to develop further, that was higher performance, and was a more modern aircraft?
The answer, they wouldn't. Once the F-16s became available for export, no one wanted the F-20.
When you have HMD, Aim-9X, pythons, derbys, Spices or Maveriks, it counts if you have a good number of cheap airplanes, like the Colombians do with their Kfirs, or the Brazilian with their F-5M or now the Koreans with their 60 F/A-50
Taiwan and Iran kind of share the same problem, who is going to sell them new fighters? If Iran gets some of the sanctions lifted, they probably will try and see what they can get from Russia but I am not sure who is going to sell Taiwan new fighters any time soon....maybe some more used F16s? If USA doesn't want to sell new Block 52s to Taiwan, they sure aren't getting F35s.....
LMT isn't allowed to sell F16 Block 52s to Taiwan, so they sure aren't going to get approval for F35. After that, there is no one else that will...maybe US will allow for used F16s to replace F5 and Mirages, probably the only thing that will be available....I don't see the Europeans selling anything.
If sanctions are lifted, I would say Russia although Iran fan boys are always sure China is going to, I am really not convinced or so sure, both countries had opportunities in the past to sell jets and they didn't, Iran better hope they get some sanction relief because they can't keep flying museum pieces forever....
There is one possibility; India. India is the sworn enemy of China and would gladly help out Taiwan, if Taiwan decides that the only country that would supply them with an advanced fighter jet in the future is India.
Tejas uses F404/F414 so they would need to get approval from US. I think at best it would be a stop gap, not sure it is all that much better than an used F16C brought up to a new Block 52 standard...then if Taiwan is that porous to China's spy, not sure how much India wants to sell anything to Taiwan that might get immediately compromised!
It isn't that Taiwan is "porous" it is that China is really damn good at espionage. Anyone remember LTC Benjamin Bishop? http://militarycorruption.com/benbishop.htm
Europe will sell, or at least the French will, based on historic Mirage sales.
India looks like a likely candidate for exporting 5th gen fighters: http://www.defencetalk.com/india-to-build-export-t-50-stealth-fighter-by-2020-45052/ India also has a long history of playing the middle ground between capitalists and communists, so I don't see them having any motivation to not sell to Taiwan.
In terms of 5th Gen fighters, you are looking at Russia, US, European, and Mainland Chinese technology, that can be manufactured in India, South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan. I wouldn't discount Taiwan taking a page from their past and developing their own 5th Gen fighter, although my money is on some form of Russian tech.
along those lines--
ReplyDeleteU.S. Fighter Aircraft Pricing Themselves Out of the Export Market
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=1320
no one wants cheap fighters like the F-5/F-20 anymore.
DeleteLook at the ROARING export success of the Chinese JF-17... oh wait. Only Pakistan is buying them.
Other nations either have the cash for modern Western/Russian jets, or buy used Western or Russian jets.
Most nations would rather have 2-3 squadrons of great jets, than 4-6 squadrons of "low end" jets.
Look at Siri Lanka. They could have bought cheap L-39s/ Hawks in large numbers, but decided to buy Supersonic Kfirs and Chines J-7s.
For MANY nations, Air Forces are all about prestige and looking good on parade day. 12-24 badass jets are better for than than 48 "good enough" jets.
The low end is just that, low.
I have an F-20 brochure. Saw it once at Farnborough. Good idea. Had a fast startup to rolling time too. Don't need a lot of range for that AD mission either.
ReplyDeleteGood thing the F-16s export restriction got lifted by Reagan. Why buy an F-20 when you can have an F-16?
DeleteThe F-16 was a then brand new design. It was 12-15 million a copy.
Like selling F-22 to Australia South Korea and Japan? Too bad that the production line is closed. But Taiwan?
ReplyDelete"...Taiwan’s modernized E-2 Hawkeye 2000s have hardly arrived, and already a Taiwanese major has sold key details to the Chinese. This is a significant and recurring problem in Taiwan. Hey, why not refuse to sell them lesser F-16C/Ds, and give them F-16s with some of our most advanced radars instead? Oh, wait…"
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/page/6/
"...November 5, 2013: Taiwan recently admitted that it had suffered some serious damage when it discovered that one of its air force officers (identified only as “Major Hao”) sold many technical details of the new E-2K AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft to China. Hao did it for money, and Taiwanese counterintelligence found over a dozen other Chinese intel operatives during the investigation that uncovered the E-2K leaks. Since the E-2K contains mostly American technology and is based on the E-2C use on American aircraft carriers, this intelligence disaster is going to cost America a lot as well. Since China now knows the details of how the E-2 electronics work, they can develop better ways to deceive and disrupt E-2 operations..."
http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtintel%5Carticles%5C20131105.aspx
"...May 25, 2012: A Taiwanese Air Force pilot has been suspended from flying and put under investigation because it was found that he was dating a Chinese woman who was a journalist. Taiwan considers (with some accuracy) reporters for Chinese state controlled media as agents for Chinese intelligence agencies. Thus Taiwanese counter-intelligence officials were worried that the pilot was another victim of the frequent Chinese use of sex to obtain secrets from foreign nations.
China continues to use "honey trap" (sex scandal) operations with great success. For example, three years ago four Taiwanese government officials were lured to a Chinese red light district and covertly captured on video doing something they could be blackmailed (into spying for China) for..."
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htintel/20120525.aspx
"...It’s been less than two years since Taiwan was hit by the worst spying case in half a century, in which Army general Lo Hsien-che was arrested for passing classified military information to Chinese intelligence officers since 2004, in return for payment. In July of the same year, Lo was sentenced to life in prison, but it was hard to contain the damage, especially as doubts remained over how much access he had to the nation’s Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, which Taiwan has been modernizing with U.S. assistance for well over a decade.
This was followed by another case in March the following year, when a captain who worked at a regional operations control center north of Taipei was detained on suspicions that he had passed intelligence to China with help from an uncle who operated a business there. Once again, Taiwan’s early-warning radar systems were the object of the operation, this time targeting the 10-1E “Strong Net” — the nation’s air-defense command and control system — as well as E-2T/E-2K Hawkeye surveillance aircraft. As with the Lo case, there was disagreement as to the level of access he would have had and how damaging the information he provided to Chinese intelligence would be..."
http://thediplomat.com/china-power/taiwans-china-spy-problem/
"...Taiwan has arrested three retired military officers suspected of spying for China, officials say.
One of the officers, identified by local media as Chang Chih-hsin, was the former political warfare head of the meteorology and oceanography office.
The Defence Ministry has said that Mr Chang did not leak sensitive material.
But local media warn his department handled highly classified data, including maps for submarines, hidden ambush zones and coastal defence areas..."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20119878
hehehe, yep.
DeleteThe Taiwanese can be VERY liberal with "secrets"
We usually call it Taiwan but they call themselves the Republic of China on Taiwan. So treating Taiwan as a separate country, which it isn't, does get complicated when it's really two sides in an enduring standoff.
ReplyDeleteSelling the F-35 to Taiwan is a high risk because Taiwan has an extensive network of mainland spies within its military and government.
ReplyDeleteThe lower risk is to sell a portion of USAF T-50(Which is based on combat-ready F/A-50 anyway and will see a F414 engine upgrade for USAF services) to Taiwan as FMS, then Taiwan would convert those "T-50"s back to F/A-50 with a separately supplied conversion kit. All other vendors, such as BAE and Boeing and even the T-50's original vendor KAI cannot do this because of their commercial jet interests and their respective government's diplomacy with China.
This would ensure that the US mainstream fighter jet's secrets aren't exposed to China. But I do have concerns for the proposed AESA avionics upgrade package for Taiwan's F-15 A/Bs, because they are of same configuration as USAF's.
I cannot fault the Pentagon going with the F-16 over the F-20 at all. And it's supposed easier maintenance costs were based on only 1500 hrs of 3 pre-production aircraft which is hardly a comparison to an operational aircraft.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a228122.pdf
the F-16's unit price sank down to 12mil per copy and thousands were built for all of our allies. Can you imagine a Cold War-era NATO without Norway, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece, Turkey, Spain, Portugal being able to afford the F-16? A tiny nation like the Netherlands eventually fielded over 200 F16s and Belgium ordered 160.
The F-16 was the superior fighter and the Tigershark was really only slightly better at point defense for a couple million less. It made more sense to select and promote the F-16.
F22s would never be sold to Taiwan. The only allies on the short list would have been Israel, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Taiwan is too much of a security risk. even then with the serious maintenance issues the F22 has, how many could afford to sustain their fleets?
While there were concerns over the F-22, I wonder if we could have developed a dumbed-down C-version to produced in greater numbers and also sold to allies. Too bad we'll never find out.
Exactly.
DeleteWhy would a nation but essentially a souped up F-5E when the could have an F-16 that the USAF was guaranteed to develop further, that was higher performance, and was a more modern aircraft?
The answer, they wouldn't. Once the F-16s became available for export, no one wanted the F-20.
When you have HMD, Aim-9X, pythons, derbys, Spices or Maveriks, it counts if you have a good number of cheap airplanes, like the Colombians do with their Kfirs, or the Brazilian with their F-5M or now the Koreans with their 60 F/A-50
ReplyDeleteTaiwan and Iran kind of share the same problem, who is going to sell them new fighters? If Iran gets some of the sanctions lifted, they probably will try and see what they can get from Russia but I am not sure who is going to sell Taiwan new fighters any time soon....maybe some more used F16s? If USA doesn't want to sell new Block 52s to Taiwan, they sure aren't getting F35s.....
ReplyDeleteNICO,
ReplyDeleteIn case of Iran, both Russia and China would when the arms embargo is lifted.
In case of Taiwan, only Lockheed could because Boeing will not sell anything to Taiwan even as an FMS to protect its commercial jet market in China.
LMT isn't allowed to sell F16 Block 52s to Taiwan, so they sure aren't going to get approval for F35. After that, there is no one else that will...maybe US will allow for used F16s to replace F5 and Mirages, probably the only thing that will be available....I don't see the Europeans selling anything.
ReplyDeleteIf sanctions are lifted, I would say Russia although Iran fan boys are always sure China is going to, I am really not convinced or so sure, both countries had opportunities in the past to sell jets and they didn't, Iran better hope they get some sanction relief because they can't keep flying museum pieces forever....
There is one possibility; India. India is the sworn enemy of China and would gladly help out Taiwan, if Taiwan decides that the only country that would supply them with an advanced fighter jet in the future is India.
DeleteTejas uses F404/F414 so they would need to get approval from US. I think at best it would be a stop gap, not sure it is all that much better than an used F16C brought up to a new Block 52 standard...then if Taiwan is that porous to China's spy, not sure how much India wants to sell anything to Taiwan that might get immediately compromised!
ReplyDeleteIt isn't that Taiwan is "porous" it is that China is really damn good at espionage. Anyone remember LTC Benjamin Bishop? http://militarycorruption.com/benbishop.htm
ReplyDeleteEurope will sell, or at least the French will, based on historic Mirage sales.
India looks like a likely candidate for exporting 5th gen fighters: http://www.defencetalk.com/india-to-build-export-t-50-stealth-fighter-by-2020-45052/ India also has a long history of playing the middle ground between capitalists and communists, so I don't see them having any motivation to not sell to Taiwan.
In terms of 5th Gen fighters, you are looking at Russia, US, European, and Mainland Chinese technology, that can be manufactured in India, South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan. I wouldn't discount Taiwan taking a page from their past and developing their own 5th Gen fighter, although my money is on some form of Russian tech.