Thanks for the article Andrew!
via Reuters.
1. There are problems with the C model and the Navy is planning on increasing the number of F-18's because the delay will cause the price to go up....or....
2. The C is coming in at a price that is unpalatable so they will accept a decreased number and increased price and make up with it by buying more F-18s.
Either way, its becoming increasingly obvious that the DEATH SPIRAL is here. More ominously for F-35 zealots is the fact that the naval services are going to be buying what are essentially unique planes that will not generate the cost/maintenance/training savings that have been forecasted. Quite honestly the possibility of an outright cancellation of the C model remains.
(Reuters) - The U.S. Navy remains committed to the Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, but is also looking at options to buy additional Boeing Co (BA.N) F/A-18 fighter jets, a senior U.S. Navy official said on Tuesday.This is one of two things...
Richard Gilpin, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for air programs, told Reuters that current plans still called for purchases of the Boeing F/A-18 and EA-18G electronic attack planes to end in fiscal 2014.
He said the U.S. military would have to act soon to ensure continued production of the F/A-18 beyond 2016, but said no decisions had been made at this point.
He denied that those discussions signaled any wavering of the Navy's commitment to the F-35 program. "Let me be clear. The Navy is very committed to moving to JSF. I wouldn't want you to get the impression that the Navy is not committed to JSF, because we are," Gilpin said.
He said a possible budget-driven pause in procurement of the Navy's F-35 C-model would not derail the program, although it could potentially increase the cost of each airplane.
1. There are problems with the C model and the Navy is planning on increasing the number of F-18's because the delay will cause the price to go up....or....
2. The C is coming in at a price that is unpalatable so they will accept a decreased number and increased price and make up with it by buying more F-18s.
Either way, its becoming increasingly obvious that the DEATH SPIRAL is here. More ominously for F-35 zealots is the fact that the naval services are going to be buying what are essentially unique planes that will not generate the cost/maintenance/training savings that have been forecasted. Quite honestly the possibility of an outright cancellation of the C model remains.
Besides the significant tailhook problem, the CV (like the CTOL) needs a full software capability to be combat capable particularly for strike missions.
ReplyDeleteThe F-35 needs 24 million lines of software to operate. That includes 10 million on the plane itself – three times more than the F-22, the Air Force’s hottest warplane, and six times more than the latest version of the F-18, the Navy’s best fighter.
The JSF is now being operated with training software. Then comes Blocks 2B/3I, then Block 3F which is at least three years behind schedule. Block 3F adds capabilities that are key to the F-35’s core mission‚ such as multi-ship suppression, destruction of enemy air defenses and new air-to-air and air-to-ground modes. This package also will include the full complement of weapons carried internally and externally on the aircraft.
--Apr 2013: Bogdan is “moderately confident” that Lockheed will deliver Block 2B software, which manages weapons delivery, in 2015, two years behind schedule,
--Bogdan April 2013: “I see more risk to the delivery of Block 3F, our full warfighting capability, by 2017.”
--June 2013, Bogdan: “less than confident” that the final 2017 capability will be met on time due to delays.
--Sep 27, 2013 - Software remains the biggest risk of the F-35 program -- Gen Bogdan
--October 2013, Frank Kendall said Block 3F was running behind schedule.
--Nov 2013: The F-35 program absorbed part of the $806 million cut it took “by delayed research and development work on software.”
Obamacare needs 500 million lines of code, I'm sure they will be able to write 24m for the F-35 ;)
Deletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-28/obama-built-behold-obamacare-all-its-lines-code-glory
Donald, you mean 'the Navy's ONLY fighter". Tomcat was retired 8 years ago.
DeletePretty soon, the USN will only operate the E-2D, the F-18C/D E/F, and the E-18G and the F-35C.
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ReplyDeleteI have a hard time believing that if things were going so great and made a ton of progress on the tail-hook that LMT and paid shills like Thompson wouldn't be shouting about it and writing a bunch of feel good stories about how much progress they have made. It wouldn't be buried somewhere with some slow mo video on YouTube.....The Navy must be getting some inside intel/data about the so called progress and they don't like what they hear or Navy feels NOT enough progress has been made and using further SH/Growler to keep the heat on LMT....
ReplyDeleteThat goes for the whole program. We've had terrible reports on many failures of JSF performance, cost, schedule and reliability but then only an occasional PR release that this amazing plane actually dropped a bomb or fired a missile. The 2012 Test Report from DOT&E in January, the March GAO report, the DOT&E testimony in June, and the October DOD IG report, all bad, listing many problems, and nary a peep that "Hey, we fixed that, and see how good it is now."
DeleteYet Kendall had that meeting recently and the news was that Lockheed is ready to increase production of this turkey. Obviously the fix is in, and I don't mean to the plane.
The tailhook problem relates to basic plane design and may be unsolvable. Greenert is smart, he knows. If the problem were anywhere near fixed, and if he were a JSF proponent (two ifs), he'd probably say I want a CV on a carrier tomorrow. Do it. But he's not, while he bides his time procuring a half dozen or fewer CVs a year, awaiting the really bad news when he can pull the plug.
From the same report information about the F-35C hook omitted from excerpts:
ReplyDelete...CONFIDENT ABOUT NEW TAILHOOK ON F-35 C-MODEL
Gilpin said a budget-driven pause in procurement of the Navy's F-35 C-model would not derail the program, although it could potentially increase the cost of each airplane.
He said the Navy continued to work with Lockheed on driving down the cost of the airplanes, and was "on a good path there."
He also said he was "very confident" about the reworked tailhook on the F-35C, which will be tested at a Navy facility in December. "The tailhook thing is behind us, literally and figuratively," he said...."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/19/airshow-dubai-navy-fighters-idUSL5N0J43CT20131119
Looks like the tailhook has been updated out of that article. I guess it failed again.
DeleteInteresting that Reuters / Shalal-Esa edited out the tail hook quote, but chose to expand the story about the F/A-18 pre-solicitation. The Navy's story is it was an admin error by a "low level" employee, and did not reflect any "concrete" plan. I take that as they are seriously thinking about more F/A-18s to mitigate risk of strike fighter shortfalls due to cost/limited funds, F-35C delays due to technical issues or sequestration, and the pitiful situation in the fleet - as of June 2013, over 40% of the legacy Hornet fleet are out of service awaiting repairs at the various depots (that's in the Senate version of the 2014 NDAA.)
DeleteI described earlier how this could happen. A meeting with some big thinkers at the long table mouthing off, and a functionary in the third row against the wall actually takes them seriously and does something when actually doing something was never a real option, when everybody knows you just go with the flow. You talk, and nothing gets done.
DeleteBut there's always someone who just doesn't get the word, wants to be productive and exhibits some initiative and turn thoughts into action. Bad dog. Bad low level doggy.
I heard a rumor that it was supposed to do ship board trials again this month, but they pushed it back.
ReplyDeleteThere is supposed to be tail hook testing at Lakehurst in December, which was originally scheduled for the past summer. There are no sea trials scheduled for F-35C until late 2014.
DeleteMake that "re-scheduled." Like the entire Joint Strike Failure program.
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ReplyDeletePrevious deleted comment did not have article date / author so here it is again....
ReplyDeleteF-35 on track to meet IOC targets, official says - 14 Nov 2013 Craig Hoyle
"...Speaking at IQPC’s International Fighter conference in London on 13 November, the Joint Program Office representative said flight testing involving a new tailhook design for the carrier variant F-35C should be completed at the US Navy’s Lakehurst site in New Jersey “next month”. The type should begin its first carrier-based trials “late next summer”, he adds, on the way to a first active duty deployment in the fourth quarter of 2018.”
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/f-35-on-track-to-meet-ioc-targets-official-says-393029/
Right. And I should win the lottery next month.
DeleteSpaz, I've looked at F-16 and I couldn't possibly read all your entries, so thanks for checking in.
ReplyDeleteNavy IOC in FOURTH quarter 2018? WOW!!!, thank you LMT for the freaking sense of urgency!!!!
ReplyDeleteAWESOME JOB LMT!!!!........*sarcasm*
Maybe L. Martin is also considering a plan B, C or Z
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Em14UbNUeA#t=120
from the article:
ReplyDeleteFor - Berenice Baker argues F-35 is a boon for British business
Against - Grant Turnbull contends that F-35 dragging Britain down as it falls short of expectations
That's it in a nutshell. It's like any disaster -- it isn't good for anything except that it's good for business.
'Don Bacon' it seems to me you are interested in the HOOK (amongst a lot of other things - I just make that point). Online on my 'SpazSinbad' Microsoft SkyDrive page: https://skydrive.live.com/?cid=cbcd63d6340707e6&sa=822839791 in the 'F-35 PDFs with Embedded Videos' folder or the 'JPALS & F-35B+C Deck Land Info' folder there is more digestible info about these issues (although not as up to date as shown on dates of these PDFs). Otherwise the main 4.4GB PDF or the 'How to Deck Land' PDF will have more videos and other bits to flesh out the issues. GoogleDrive is another avenue for some of these PDFs: https://drive.google.com/?authuser=0#folders/0BwBlvCQ7o4F_aDhIQ0szeVJFY0U 'SpazSinbad' again and look in the relevant folders.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
DeleteOtherwise work backwards in this thread on F-16.net: 'F-35C Lands at Lakehurst For Testing'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=15767&start=390
http://www.janes.com/article/29948/cad-images-suggest-strike-version-of-shenyang-j-31
ReplyDeleteSorry, not relevant to this particular post but was wondering if you stumbled across this - I found it interesting. It's still speculation at this point, but surely it is alarming how much development there is in the Chinese aerospace industry. As we've seen in the past, rumours more often than not pan out to be true a few years down the line...
So somebody please explain, what's Pentagon's rationale for creating a fighter jet monopoly of Lockheed Martin by forcing Boeing out of fighter jet business? Will the US let foreign fighter jet vendors compete against Lockheed in future US contests to make up for this monopoly situation?
ReplyDeleteProbably they didn't intend it, but they over-reached and mismanaged and now they have a tiger by the tail.
DeleteOne major mistake, which they acknowledge, is concurrent development and production -- a really stupid project management mistake. Another mistake was letting Lockheed run the development for too long.
Now they have no money for super hornets, or much else.
Boeing can't design a fighter to save thier life.
DeleteJust look at the F-32 abortion.
All the MD designers/engineers that made the F-5, F-18, and F-15 are retired or dead.
Boeing didn't have a chance in the JSF flyoff - LM had a huge headstart due to its work with DARPA on a STOVL replacement for the Harrier, and with lessons learned from F-22.
DeleteUP to date info in November about the F-35C and the HOOK: (one hour audio presentation + PDF download)
ReplyDeletehttp://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=lobby.jsp&eventid=694934&sessionid=1&key=5A43D513D9A63EDCEED0C4F6E8DAB02E&eventuserid=90520094
"F-35C: Delivering Stealth Technology to the Carrier Strike Group
Event Date: On Demand
Over the past year, the team behind the F-35C carrier variant has made tremendous progress delivering the first jets to the U.S. Navy, standing up the first training squadron and accomplishing test points.
Join us as an F-35 expert and an F-35 test pilot discuss the largest F-35 variant, the capability it will bring to strengthen the carrier strike group and upcoming milestones. We’ll take a deeper look into what the future holds for this 5th Generation fighter, including:
• CV ship trials [Hook Changes Explanation - Some changes already being manufactured on current F-35Cs in production]
• Deliveries to the first Naval Air Station
• Preparation for the Navy’s Initial Operating Capability"
CLICK ON 'LAUNCH PRESENTATION' Button
3.2Mb PDF: http://wcc.on24.com/event/69/49/34/rt/1/documents/slidepdf/webinar_slides_defnews.pdf
good work.
ReplyDeleteFrom the 19 Nov 2013 seminar (audio) on the F-35C is the short segment on HOOK testing, LM Test PIlot Bill Gigliotti is the speaker:
ReplyDelete[b]F-35C LM Nov 2013 Seminar Arresting Hook Test Progress[/b] 21 Nov 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH81pvh6Ww8&feature=youtu.be