This news is from Slowman a frequent commenter here and at other defense related websites. I haven't verified the info but if any of it is true then the news of a slam dunk in S. Korea was very premature.
The F-35 negociation reportedly is not going well in Korea, enough to the point that the DAPA is now going back to the drawing board and is trying to come up with a Plan C in case the F-35 negociation fails.The highlighted portion is the other story that is being ignored by the defense media.
1. The tech transfer negociation with Lockheed isn't going well, especially now that the defense ministry decided on the C103(The twin EJ2x0 powered jet) as the bases of their negociation. Because of the impending fighter jet short fall, the KFX has become the "MUST DO" top priority for the defense ministry and this is causing a lot of friction with Lockheed and the US DoD.
2. The defense ministry negociators are trying to verify if they could in fact buy 40 F-35s for $7.3 billion approved budget(No increase is possible). If not, they will have to bail out of the F-35.
3. Because of a 2-year delay in the KFX program due to the F-X selection delay and a budget allowing only 40 F-35s(assuming they could actually get 40 for $7.3 billion), this opens a whopping 120+ fighter jet short fall by early 2020s and filling this short fall has become super critical. Vendors are expecting another F-X contest right after the current one, because the present security conditions in Northeast Asia doesn't allow a country to fall behind in arms race.
4. This anticipated 120+ unit shortfall is the reason the EADS and Boeing are still staying in the race, because the F-35 surely won't be a contender in this follow up contest because it will be a "let's buy lots of cheap jets" kind of contest. Boeing may try to sell the Silent Hornet in place of the Silent Eagle. Lockheed can only offer the F-16 or the F-50 in this contest.
5. EADS is preparing a Typhoon lease deal from the existing European Airforce inventory, in hopes that the Korean government would be more open to a Typhoon buy after having used some. Boeing can't match this lease deal, unfortunately.
What happens to Air Forces when they go from 100 plus F-16's to fewer than 50 F-35's? I know. The F-35 is twice as effective so fewer are needed. That sounds good until you start taking into account training, homeland security, deployment and maintenance.
How can an airpower advocate claim success if only 10 out of say 48 airplanes are available for contingency operations? I've said it before and I'll say it again. The F-35 is weakening not only our defense but that of our allies.
Well, this "Cannot fall behind in the arms race" is uniquely an Asian phenomenon due to the "rise" of China; not even the Middle East faces this arms race problem anymore.
ReplyDeleteBut falling behind the arms race in Asia means your very territorial integrity is immediately challenged by somebody else, most notably the Paracel Islands of Vietnam, the Scarborough Islands of Philippines, and the Chinese troop border incursions in Ladakh. Things in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea off the coast of Shanghai is peaceful by comparison, because the balance of power is maintained via an arms race unlike in the South China Sea.
So as long as the US can figure out some way to do a 21st century Freedom Fighter program to arm the Southeast Asian nations, this rearming will actually help to maintain peace. Things are so lopsided right now in the Southeast Asia and the F-35 isn't the solution in maintaining the air power check and balance there simply because it cannot be had in sufficient number.
"What happens to Air Forces when they go from 100 plus F-16's to fewer than 50 F-35's? I know. The F-35 is twice as effective so fewer are needed. That sounds good until you start taking into account training, homeland security, deployment and maintenance."
ReplyDeletePlus, a numerically superior enemy can force you to commit your entire force, and you will be faced with either splitting your air assets and widening his numbers advantage or risk having no reserves to counter subsequent attack waves.
The previous decision by the ROK Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) to purchase F-18 was unpopular with the ROK JCS so DAPA was removed from the decision process and the JCS made the announcement on ther 40 F-35.
ReplyDeleteBut the JCS doesn't negotiate procurement terms, DAPA does. The bureaucrats in DAPA can't be dismissed so readily. And so there will be some serious foot-dragging and terms-discussion particularly considering the budget-busting unit price of $182.5 million for unproven airplanes.
Peter Maute, senior vice president of Eurofighter sales, told reporters on 11 December that a split buy of 40 "stable" Typhoons followed by the purchase of 20 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters would be the best option for the Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF).
On top of these considerations, the FY2013 F-35 test report is due out this month, and who has any basis to claim that it will be favorable when no such report has been yet, after twelve years of development and at least four more years to go. Koreans generally aren't stupid, despite the JCS evidence that some are.
The defense officials are supposedly telling news reporters to actually trash the F-35 in their articles to gain an upper hand in this difficult negotiation, so it is basically an open season on the F-35 while the Typhoon is being made to look like some kind of an angel.
DeleteI think someone in the USN is starting to realize that you have to somehow make up the numbers; with that last article in AV Week about arming UAVs with AMRAAMs, it really makes sense now. They have come to their senses or more likely have run a bunch of new updated war game scenarios and now F22/F35 just don't carry enough AAMs onboard. Putting them on the wings defeats the whole freaking purpose of LO so you really are stuck with 2 options, buy more F35s or arm UAVs. The F22 option is gone and no way USAF is going back to F15/F16....so arming UAVs it is. In a conflict with China, you are only going to have a few F22s and a couple more F35s facing a technological close number of J20s/21s plus very good 4.5th Gen J10/11s with considerably more AAMs than the US LO counterparts alone.
ReplyDeleteIt would be typical of the USAF/USN to always go for the more expensive and technologically challenging endeavor but will leave our allies like Japan, SKorea and Australia at a numerical disadvantage for sure. Or be stuck having to buy in a few years an even more freaking expensive UAV to accompany the F35!!!
It really came to me when the article wasn't talking about having really advance AI but the UAV acting as a flying AAM truck and the pilot using it as a spare magazine, I think DoD knows that the current war-load on it's fighters isn't going to cut it.
NICO
DeleteThe USN doesn't operate the F-22; only the F-35C. The Super Hornet will have to dogfight with Su-35s and J-20s in the 2020s and onward, so things are looking even worse for the US Navy compared to the USAF.
As for the combat UAV, they are not for export as they rely on even more classified tech than the F-35 does.
So Japan's solution to this fighter shortage is buying 100 additional F-35s, while Korea's solution is buying something that is cheap to buy and operate to buy time until the KFX becomes ready.
This is what happens when you put all the eggs in one basket and drops that basket.
An update on the F-35 negotiation situation.
ReplyDeleteThe government announced that the KFX's full scale development would start this year, with the jets being produced in 2023~2030 time period. This is seen as an ultimatum to Lockheed Martin, which has been dragging its feet on the tech transfer and consulting agreement. The Korean government's saying that they cannot wait any longer and will go to "somebody else" if Lockheed won't give them what others are offering.