Welsh (Air Force Chief of Staff) said now is not the time to cut the joint strike fighter program.He put it out there.
“I don't believe this is a good time to talk about truncating the buy -- capping it at some number,” he said. “I think that will put the program at risk of financially costing us even more.”
Now is NOT the time to talk about truncating the buy? Not the time to talk about capping the number?
The only people doing that are bloggers. Aviation writers, analyst aren't talking about it. Most think tanks are in bed with Lockheed Martin.
So what brought on this statement?
There is fear in Lockmart land, the Pentagon and in the shop stewards offices worldwide. I love it.
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ReplyDeleteyep.
Delete"Death spiral" when no orders are cut......
i'll reply to you David because you're reasonable. Brian is a cock sucking bitch. having said that, his reply that bloggers are gonna bring down the F35 ignores what i said and instead replaces it with what he thinks was said. the F35 is only facing resistance from bloggers. communities. aviation experts. but mainstream journalist, think tanks, etc...are all in the Lockheed Martin camp.
Deleteadditionally yes, i can say death spiral and if you take the time to think about it, it does make sense.
the S. Korean order shows so much desperation that some House Wives somewhere are jealous. the arm twisting with the Netherlands was at best distasteful, at worst bordering on extortion. the glee that was expressed by the idea that the Singaporeans would be ordering the plane because they came by to take a look at and then to see those hopes dashed by the minister saying that they weren't in a rush to buy the plane tells me everything.
they need SOLID orders on the books to get the costs down. additionally the Navy still is playing it coy.
quite honestly i'm gonna throw a party when this plane finally gets the bullet in the head. i mean seriously! how can you NOT hate an organization that throws a huge party when they produce the 100th airplane? the reality? they're trying to give the impression of momentum and too big to stop, too many already in service etc.
the one thing that makes me want to punch walls in addition to many others is the fact that they're doing the Marine Corps thing as demonstrated with the Harrier.
i'm paraphrasing and will look for the exact quote but when the test flight officers got back from England and were giving their debrief of their planes to the Commandant, they told him all the issues that the plane had. someone said that when they talk to law makers the plane is perfect, no issues, and that they would fix it once they got it into service.
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Deleteyou're done here bitch.
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DeleteSolomon, a "death spiral" is when a weapon system's cost begins to increase so much that numbers have to be cut in order to pay for the total program, which leads to increasing costs, less orders, ad infinitum.
DeleteIn the F-35s case, the USAF, USMC,and USN haven't cut a single jet.
Foreign partners are buying it, maybe not in F-16 quantity numbers, but this isn't the Cold War, and many European nations seem to detest their militaries.
Asian nations are going for the F-35, and the Gulf nations, who have unlimited checkbooks, want the F-35 ASAP.
The Netherlands were offered 85 brand new Gripens (not sure if C/D or E/F) to get their AF up to 1980s levels with in-country work and other goodies, for about 2 billion less than the F-35 deal... and they STILL rejected it.
So the Netherlands, a nation of no great means, rejected a cheaper jet in favor of the latest and greatest.
That says that they believe the F-35 is worth every penny.
And if you want to believe that LMT can bully sovereign nations/governments into buying the F-35, then why hasn't every single EU nation or nation with cash bought F-35s?
As for a party, the French were partying when the 100th Rafale rolled off the line..... 10 YEARS after production started. And they are only ever going to make 180 for the French AF... if the Indian order falls through, which it may.
As for think thanks, "think tanks" in the 1980s said that the M1 Abrams was a POS that would KILL every single crew member, that's it's thermal sights were overrated, that Chobam armor was too expensive, that the F-15 relied too much on radar and was too expensive and should be scrapped in favor of the F-5E and A-4. They also said the M16 was garbage.
see this : http://elementsofpower.blogspot.com/2013/09/debunking-close-air-support-myths-part-7.html scroll to the bottom for his anlysis of the load of BS that is “More Bucks: Less Bang: How the Pentagon Buys Ineffective Weapons”
Which prophesies such wonders as "the Trident submarine and Aegis Cruisers won’t work, the Stealth Bomber is a ‘joke’, Low Probability of Intercept Radar is a ‘homing beacon’, the Abrams and Bradley are failures, and the Maverick, Pershing and Tomahawk missiles will be useless."
-Lifted verbatim from elements of power
i know what a death spiral is. i see it with the F-35. if you don't then its because you choose not to. the final buy of the F-35 remains to be seen but i feel comfortable in saying that it will be fewer planes than advertised or planned for. you talk about the Netherlands as being a nation of no great means? i disagree. the difference is again...simple. they operate according to the quaint old notion of only buying what you can afford.
Deleteadditionally you talk as if their is no budget crisis. take a look at the latest budget deal. retiree and vets are getting raped to pay for this new plane. soon active duty members will be too. there is gonna be push back. as far as elements of power. i disagree with the guy but he's been posting nothing lately. i guess he's busy but more to the point he hasn't responded to the latest move by his beloved AF. if he thinks that the AF is still doing CAS then its because he's a service loyalist not because he's a ground guy and knows that the only air support he'll be getting will be either rotary winged or Navy F-18's.
well, at least there was a deal. In 2 years, well see what else happens.
DeleteThey are scared because their careers are on the line. Major projects might come and go, but they tend to take down whole careers when they do go. Its a shame that what we are seeing is not people who are concerned about what is best for the country and the challenges ahead, but their own career advancement and the bottom profit margins for their companies only.
ReplyDeletethat's the most troubling part of this whole thing. they have a real view of the planes capabilities. its obviously coming up short, yet they still push the line that its essential. no talk about it being able to do missions better, no proof of it being "a solid" backup for F-22's they just say it and expect everyone to believe it. the arrogance is breathtaking and the corruption obvious.
DeleteThe most enthusiastic buyer so far has been the Marine Corps.
ReplyDeleteThe profile for the total buy (2,443):
AF (A) 72% - 1,763
MC (B) 14% - 340
(split N/MC buy on CV omitted)
LRIP buy to date (100):
AF (A) 44% - 44
MC (B) 42% - 42
Also the MC has its IOC one year earlier
F-35A USAF Aug 2016 - Dec 2016
F-35B USMC Jul 2015 - Dec 2015
just another example of failed leadership. it isn't a done deal though. i don't care if the Commandant is hot as a whore on bourbon street about the plane.
DeleteAn important element of the JSF acquisition program, as we know, is the PR campaign that takes focus off the problem-laden development tests and includes:
Delete1. Producing additional planes during development (at high unit cost)
2. Raving about what mediocre tasks these plane perform in units (dropping bombs, etc)
Normally Reuters news-service is employed for the PR, but Aviation Week and others also get into the act. Here's a bit from "Second Line of Defense" recently that ropes in a MC Lt Col in a "phone interview" that no doubt was set up and pre-scripted by the MC PR machine.
Another Step Forward in the IOC for the F-35B: The USMC Tests its Sortie Generation Capabilities
In a phone interview with Lt. Col. Berke, the Commanding Officer, VMFAT-501, the continued progress of the F-35B towards its initial operating capability or IOC in 2015 was underscored. . . .Berke highlighted that the event underscored several developments.
First, the event validated and demonstrated the readiness improvements and milestones, which the USMC is working towards.
Second, the event showed the reliability, which the squadron is seeing out of the jet. Shortly after landing 9 of the 10 jets were in an up status and the squadron went back the next day to a normal 12 flight operation. . . .etc etc
Third, “we were able to pressurize the system from and operational and maintenance standpoint to conduct surge ops for varying mission sets.”
And then three more bullets from LTC NFN Berke (no first name) . . .
http://www.sldinfo.com/another-step-forward-in-the-ioc-for-the-f-35b-the-usmc-tests-its-sortie-generation-capabilities/
"Generating sorties" -- never mind the plane has serious performance problems, and “we were able to pressurize the system from an operational and maintenance standpoint to conduct surge ops for varying mission sets.” Love the lingo.
Reuters gets scoops in exchange for favorable reporting. SLD is not a traditional news outlet encumbered by journalistic ethics (however malleable those ethics might be.) AvWeek is by far the most critical/balanced of the trade pubs, but was forced to sideline Sweetman for a time when LM applied a bit of "pressure" - it's hard to be too critical of your patron.
Deleteya know whats the crazy thing about the F-35? if it was just the F-35B we were talking about. if the airplane didn't cost two arms and three legs (yes put your mind in the gutter)...if the plane didn't force the Marine Corps to scrap the Marine Personnel Carrier, and Amphibious Combat Vehicle and if it worked as advertised, I'd be all in favor of it because i could see the Marine Corps saying fuck stealth, load it down with bombs and we'd be getting an improved AV-8B.
Deletebut to now say that it costs and arm and three legs, is NOW going to be the lynch pin in our defense against Chinese and Russian stealth jets AND its causing the defense dept to basically implode is asking WAAAAAAY too much..
the biggest mistake the early critics made (and they were right) was to not emphasize the cost issue. they went after the tech instead of the costs. we'll never know if the tech works because this program is so closed (yeah they let out puff pieces but real issues we're in the dark on...like how much the plane really costs). if they had gone fullbore over costs then this plane would already be dead.
The early IOC dates are amazing (for all three services) since the JSF is still deep in development, with many problems, and its Full Rate Production Decision is scheduled for April 2019. According to DOD:
ReplyDeleteEngineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) Phase--
(d) EMD Phase Completion. The EMD Phase will end when:
(1) the design is stable;
(2) the system meets validated capability requirements demonstrated by developmental and
initial operational testing as required in the TEMP; (3) manufacturing processes have been effectively demonstrated and are under control; (4) industrial production capabilities are
reasonably available; and
(5) the system has met or exceeds all directed EMD Phase exit criteria and Milestone C entrance criteria. . . .
(10) Milestone C
(a) Milestone C is the point at which a program is reviewed for entrance into the Production and Deployment Phase or for Limited Deployment. Approval depends in part on specific criteria defined at Milestone B and included in the Milestone B ADM.
The following general criteria will also be applied: --an updated and approved Acquisition Strategy;
--demonstration that the production design is stable and will meet stated and derived requirements
based on acceptable performance in developmental test;
--an operational assessment; mature software capability consistent with the software development schedule; no significant manufacturing risks;
--a validated Capability Production Document or equivalent requirements document; demonstrated interoperability; demonstrated operational supportability;
--costs within affordability caps; full funding in the FYDP; and properly phased production ramp up and/or fielding support.
This verbage looks good, but...I'm from Missouri, show me.
ReplyDelete"High Off-Bore sensors and weapons have changed the dynamic of the merge greatly, and only the F-35 has a consistent alternative to post-merge mutual HOBS kill by offering the possibility of engaging the target in any direction post-merge via spherical detection and tracking WVR."
HOBS (High Off-Boresight) weapons
Delete