Via Ashai.
Japan's new five-year Mid-Term Defense Program includes outlays for 17 new Osprey tiltrotor aircraft and three Global Hawk surveillance drones to help it respond to China's growing presence in the East China Sea.The Japanese are definitely gearing up to become the counterweight to Chinese aggression.
The plan, revealed Dec. 13, starts in fiscal 2014. It is expected to be approved in a Cabinet meeting on Dec. 17 along with the National Defense Program Guidelines.
The government plans to use the new aircraft to heighten its capabilities to protect remote islands and to monitor China's activities in waters and airspace near the disputed Senkaku Islands.
It also said it will purchase 52 amphibious vehicles for the Ground Self-Defense Force for use in landing operations. The amphibious vehicles will be the same as those used by the U.S. Marine Corps. The plan also calls for reducing the number of GSDF tanks and replacing them with 99 eight-wheeled maneuver combat vehicles that have higher running capabilities than tanks.
Further spending will include 28 F-35 Lightning fighter jets for the Air Self-Defense Force, as well as four new early-warning aircraft and three new air-refueling and transportation aircraft.
Since the government put the Senkaku Islands under state ownership in September 2012, Chinese government's vessels have repeatedly intruded into Japanese territorial waters around the islands, heightening tensions between the two countries.
The Defense Ministry decided it was paramount to establish amphibious troops that will be able to take back islands in the event they are invaded and occupied.
With the introduction of the 17 Ospreys and 52 amphibious vehicles, the ministry believes the SDF will have landing capabilities comparable to those of the U.S. Marine Corps.
And they're putting their money where their mouth is.
Not just rhetoric on this, they're buying 52 AAVs, 17 MV-22s, Global Hawks, Early Warning Aircraft, Refuelers and finally 28 F-35s.
The number of F-35s should chill that planes supporters...its far fewer than the number that had been bandied about, but the rest of the buy says it all.
The Japanese are expecting a fight. And they're going to be prepared.
Sidenote: If the US Marine Corps had operated with a bit more speed, been alot more decisive then we could have a new standard of amphibious tractor on the books with our allies buying the same, therefore reducing everyones costs. Whether that was the Marine Personnel Carrier, Amphibious Combat Vehicle or even a major upgrade of the AAV, its obvious that an opportunity was lost because of leaderships lust for the F-35.
http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/japan-to-hike-mid-term-defense-spending-by-5
ReplyDelete"...The spending plan includes an additional purchase of F-35 fighters..."
i covered that.
DeleteYes, and some people still think that orders + DEATH SPIRAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DeleteI'll guess there will be clarification however to me the first two news stories above suggest that an 'additional' number of F-35As will be purchased as well as the original forseen number 42. Either way they are buying some and including V-22s - amazing considering all the hoohaa about them in Japan earlier.
ReplyDelete"...Japan's decision to buy 42 F-35...." 21 Dec 2011:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/21/us-lockheed-fighter-idINTRE7BK08620111221
"...select the Lockheed Martin F-35A for its 42 aircraft F-X requirement...":
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/in-focus-tokyo-casts-wary-eye-on-chinese-airpower-developments-375007/
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/in-focus-tokyo-casts-wary-eye-on-chinese-airpower-developments-375007/
clarification has been issued. they're buying 20plus instead of 42. thats another cut. deal with it. this plane is expensive and even if people buy they're buying fewer. death spiral is happening right in front of you. you just have to accept it.
DeleteSpazSinba
Delete> an 'additional' number of F-35As will be purchased as well as the original forseen number 42.
additional means more than 4 ordered in 2013.
This budget plan covers obly 2014~2019 time period, while the purchase of 42 would have stretched to 2027 until the F-3 becomes ready to enter production.
interesting
DeleteDo you have a link to the clarification?
ReplyDeletethe clarification is the article itself. it gives solid numbers on weapon systems being procured. 99 MCVs, 28 F-35s, 52 AAVs etc...the only way you could get that 42 number of F-35s is if you're going by earlier HOPED for numbers versus what the government is actually saying they're going to buy.
DeleteSolomon, you do know that maybe Japan isn't planing to buy all 42 F-35s at once.
Delete28 now and 18-20 later
now you're spinning. twisting facts, and engaging in hope. the reality is simple and stark. the F-35 program needed 42 planes on the order book from Japan. they didn't get it. they got 28. that's it. 28 planes. as far as death spiral is concerned its also stark and simple. cuts in orders are happening all over the place and everyone knows it. the only reason why we haven't heard cuts in the USMC buy is that they don't want to give the partner nations an easy out by point to us and saying you did so why can't we. essentially the this is the truth. the projected numbers will NOT be bought, we just can't afford it. that will cause cost escalation, that will accelerate the death spiral we already see, Congress will ask questions, an investigation started and if we live in a country of laws then every member of the JCS with the exception of the CNO will be going to jail.
DeleteJapan has ordered four (4) F-35s.
DeleteRegarding F-35 orders in that area, South Korea has not ordered any F-35 and its Defense Ministry has not said that it will order F-35.
DeleteFair point about clarification solid numbers. Looking around I see this issue for Japanese Special F-35 local parts - perhaps reason for lower numbers?:
ReplyDelete"Aug 22/13: Local non-discount. The Asahi Shimbun reports that Japan’s F-35As will be noticeably more expensive than their American counterparts, due to the cost of incorporating Japanese-made parts. But their figure is wrong.
The US government has reportedly authorized 24 engine and radar components to be produced in Japan, accounting for about 10% of the plane’s value, and that number is expected to grow with additional approvals. Overall, IHI Corp. will manufacture 17 engine fan and turbine parts, while Mitsubishi Electric Corp. will produce 7 radar system components that include signal receivers. Parts for the rear fuselage, wings, and undercarriage will come from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and other Japanese contractors. That will help Japan gain important experience for its own stealth fighters, and build on the composites manufacturing expertise gained in its F-16-derived F-2 program. The government has reportedly budgeted YEN 83 billion (about $844.1 million) in FY 2013 for F-35 related industrial infrastructure, including new facilities at an MHI factory in Aichi Prefecture.
The problem is that Japanese firms will be manufacturing only for JASDF F-35s, sharply raising per-part costs. The 2 aircraft ordered in 2013 will be the first with Japanese parts..."
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/f22-raptors-to-japan-01909/
well quite honestly we don't have the visibility to know exactly what an airplane built will actually cost. we have so many different exchange rates going on because you have parts being built globally. that's another reason why i seriously doubt that the cost of this airplane will ever actually come down.
Deleteits being built in the MOST inefficient way possible, yet business analyst continuously rate LM a buy because future earning are slated to INCREASE over the production time of the F-35!
yet LM is going to make profits while the cost of the plane goes down? what gives? it can't be labor force. LM can layoff as many workers as it wants but the other countries won't do that and will pay their people well. so where are the savings coming from?
you can build 2000 corvettes but they're still 100,000$ plus vehicles. build 10,000 and the price doesn't decrease.
the death spiral is here. the Japanese were asked to buy 42. instead they're buying 28. that's happening across the board.
this plane is not as capable as the planes its going to replace aerodynamically and in the end it won't be a great dogfighter.
we're screwed unless this program is killed.
Apparently the F-35 is going backwards in Japan.
ReplyDeleteQuantity: In June, former Japanese Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto told Defense News fiscal pressures and the plane's rising cost could prompt Tokyo to cut its planned JSF purchases. This was done on December 13. The decision in December 2011 to purchase 42 JSF has been changed to 28 with the new five year plan. Contracts to acquire long-lead items for its initial four aircraft were awarded in October.
FACO: In June 2013 Lockheed Martin signed an agreement with Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. to begin work on a final assembly and check out (FACO) facility for Japanese F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Lockheed hoped to replace the contract, which runs through the end of 2013, with a five-year deal sometime by mid-October. There are no reports of that having been done.
Final versions of the defense guideline, which lays out Japan's defense policy for the next 10 years, and the build-up plan, called the mid-term defense program and covering a five-year period, will be unveiled next Tuesday.
Now I'm not sure that I was correct on the 28 JSF. I've just spent over an hour on it. Many news reports don't even mention JSF, others say an additional 28 or an additional purchase without providing any basis nor any total.
DeleteStay tuned.
Japan grabbed the disputed Senkakus last year, precipitating this situation. But it might rebound in China's favor.
ReplyDeleteWhat's number one on China's bucket list in its 'near abroad?' --The SOUTH China Sea, not the east one. It's down south where the rich oil fields are, and where China has made a major investment.
Down south there are no large powers to contest China's claims, so China might at some point throw in the towel on the three square miles of uninhabited rock in the east in exchange for strategic bargaining power down south.
"Hey, watch my left hand (and never mind the right)."
The US (Clinton) has said that the South China Sea is of strategic importance to the US. But the currently failing US administration is (still) investing much more interest and funding in the Middle East, not in its Pacific theater. As long as some instability can be sustained there, without it getting out of hand, the mighty Pentagon procurement programs can continue to be justified.
The senkakus is kind of important because of the EEZ around them. which to the west doesn't entail much, but the PRC likes to claim EEZs as territorial waters and be dicks over them. and it would give them a reason to expand the ADIZ and coastal patrols between Taiwan south Korea and Japan.
ReplyDeleteAbout the F-35, the GAO "2013 assessment of selected weapons systems" has published that reductions in production lot purchases are being done to give the contractors adequate time to bring certain systems and production practices up to commanders requirements. And the unit price of the of the F-35s being purchased is 136 million which is down about 15-25% from 2012 prices listed in wikipedia with sources being dept of navy and usaf 2013 budget estimates.
Keith! i've got to ask. what is that price based on? i'm only a lowly mud Marine but how can they have a final price when the airplane is still in development? additionally if you've been keeping up with the financial news on the plane how can they expect a profit when expected numbers aren't being bought?
Deletei'm getting a bit confused by all this.
Now Lockheed is saying they will have the price for a complete plane down to $85 million by 2019, in then dollars. So why would a country purchase pre-production developmental incomplete untested planes now for half-again or double that? Makes no sense. I'm talking Australia, Norway, UK & Italy for starters.
DeleteAn exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is a seazone prescribed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (which the US doesn't recognize). A state has special EEZ rights over the exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind. It stretches from the baseline out to 200 nautical miles from its coast. In colloquial usage, the term may include the territorial sea and even the continental shelf beyond the 200-mile limit.
DeleteThere is no reason to have any confidence in cost figures in the GAO report, given the sloppy JSF project management and the lack of any basis for the given price. The fact is that JSF procurement is budgeted at over $200 million per.
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DeleteThere is a long list of JSF problems according to reports issued this year. There isn't space enough here to list them all. Software, helmet and ALIS (logistics system) head the list but there are also many design, performance and reliability problems early in the test program. Development testing is only half done -- the easy part.
DeleteThe FY2013 OT&E test report is expected about Jan 10 -- it will tell us a lot.